POLL: if something has 95% chance of being true would you say its a fact?

  • fact
    21% (4)15% (3)18% (7)Vote
  • opinion
    79% (15)85% (17)82% (32)Vote
And you are? I'm a GirlI'm a Guy

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Most Helpful Guy

  • By definition, it's a fact if it is 100% true. That's how it works.

    Besides, how does when determine this "95% chance of being true"?

    In mathematics, we have words for this:

    A theorem is a logically proven fact based on other facts. For instance, if X is a real number between 0 and 1, then X^2 <= X.

    A conjecture is a mathematical hyopthesis or something that appears true but gas not yet been disproven as false or proven as true. One classic conjecture is the Collatz Conjecture which states this:
    Let N be a positive integer that will be the first number in an arithmetic sequence.
    The next number in the sequence is N/2 if N is even.
    The next number in the sequence is 3N+1 if N is odd.
    Keep repeating the sequence.
    Eventually, the sequence will look like...,4,2,1,4,2,1,4,2,1...
    Here's an example starting with 11:
    11, 34, 17, 52, 13, 40, 20, 10, 5, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, ...
    Anyway, aparently this is true. No one has found a value for N where the sequence ended, 4,2,1,4,2,1... So, we call that a conjecture, but we can't call it a fact despite it apparently being true.

    But I want to so you an example where being "95% true" doesn't mean it is a fact... Earlier, I said this fact:
    If X is a real number between 0 and 1, then X^2 <= X

    This is not a fact, but it is true for 95% of the values for X. (So, in a sense, it is 95% true.)
    If X is a real number between 0 and 20/19, then X^2 <= X.

    Yet, this is a fact:
    If X is a real number between 0 and 20/19, then there is a 95% probability that X^2 <= X is true.

    (B T W, 20/19 = 1.052631579...)

    So, to answer your original question...
    Q: If something has 95% chance of being true would you say its a fact?
    A: No, it is not a fact.

    Understand?

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    • 2mo

      *
      Anyway, aparently this is true. No one has found a value for N where the sequence DID NOT END 4,2,1,4,2,1... So, we call that a conjecture, but we can't call it a fact despite it apparently being true.

    • 2mo

      Forgot a number...

      11, 34, 17, 52, 26, 13, 40, 20, 10, 5, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, ...

Most Helpful Girl

  • Nothing is 100% in life; opinions, facts, it does not matter. 95% is enough of a "fact" for me because I know that nothing is 100% certain.

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What Guys Said 14

  • Neither. An opinion is something that could go either way, or has no solid basis. And a fact is a 100% thing.
    It is a statistical probability. It could be wrong, and you admit that it can be wrong, but you know that the chance of it being wrong is very low.

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  • I'd consider it an opinion.
    A fact can't be argued against in most cases and that 5% leaves a margin of error.

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  • That doesn't tell you anything. There's a difference between
    "There's a 95% chance of smoking being a cause for lung cancer"
    Vs
    "We looked at 95% of all homicides in 2016 and they were gang related, so we conclude all homicides being gun related"

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  • A fact is only a fact if it is 100% true anything else is an opinion.

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  • An opinion because things can be widely known but have little recourse in terms of truth

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  • Nope unless it's proven 100%

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  • Unless something is completely true, it is always going to be an opinion.

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  • A fact is 100% true.

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  • No. there's still that 5%

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  • Not necessarily an opinion, but definitely not a fact.

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  • VISUAL EVIDENCE FOR A STATEMENT IS BEST

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  • Fact , your dude on females account

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  • Neither fact nor opinion. There's lots of evidence to support it.

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  • Although statistically significant, it's not a fact.

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What Girls Said 3

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