How to know when he is in denial about liking you?

TheWriter
This is the situation:

I have a close guy-friend (we're just getting closer and closer), who's been flirting (but not from day 1, but it started 3 months ago) with me. I flirt back, and I've realized I'm starting to like him. These past 6 weeks, we've flirted way more than we used to - me sitting on his lap, him flirting with his eyes and in his tone of voice, while at the same time starting to go deeper into his family situation and childhood (where I've also told him some about myself).

We've never kissed, and he believes I've made a promise to our common friends to never have sex with him. His behavior is very on and off (in his flirting ways) and for the last few weeks, he's been talking about how he can't have sex with friends (and then be just friends afterwards) and how he's not good in relationships (I believe he's in denial and is therefore saying it on purpose).

When dancing for the first time, he didn't dare put a hand on me (at ALL), but he's now able to put a hand on my hip if I place it there first (he seems very nervous and maybe even scared).

Our common friend (that knows him the best) says he looks at me with eyes she's never seen before, and she believes he's in denial about liking me, because he doesn't want to screw up our friendship (not only us, but because we have so many close friends in common).

SO I wonder: Am I right, that he might like me? Or am I just over thinking things and trying to make him like me?
How to know when he is in denial about liking you?
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