It seems like there is too much going on in his life right now for him to start another relationship, and if he did, he probably wouldn't be able to devote much of his attention to you anyway.
I would say back off for now, and give him sometime to get over his old girlfriend. Leave yourself open for other opportunities and try to meet some other guys, being available to others is the quickest way for this guy to realize that me has to act first if he does want you.
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That's a difficult set-up because you've got the ex-girlfriend and the brother. It'll take time for those aspects to simmer down. My hunch is that there's too much in the way for the relationship to take off now or anytime soon.
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