NO opinions, NO emotions, NO I WANT TO HAVE HIM OR CIVIL WAR. As objectively as possible and based solely on observations and recent developments, who do you realistically think will become the next president of the USA?
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Emotionally I would love for it to come between Sanders and Paul. I know it won't because Sanders is a democratic socialist and that's like a swear word in America still. Paul won't make it because he's a libertarian and not a traditional conservative. It will come down to Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and I'm unsure of which GOP candidate will make it to the 'finals'. The problem with the GOP is that there's SOOO much fighting within the party. Democrats are more united. There's still the libertarian vs. traditional conservative fighting for the soul of the GOP and I think that will hurt them immensely in the coming election as it has in recent years.
Bill Clinton was a VERY popular president and there will be people who vote for Hillary for that reason alone. Hell I know people like this. Hillary will probably expound some of the same policies that made her husband so popular.
List of GDP growth by president:
1. Clinton, 1993-2001, $2.7 trillion.
2. George W. Bush, 2001-2009, $1.7 trillion.
3. Reagan, 1981-1989, $1.6 trillion.
4. Johnson, 1963-1969, $741 billion.
5. Nixon, 1969-1974, $628 billion.
6. Eisenhower, 1953-1961, $484 billion.
7. Carter, 1977-1981, $461 billion.
8. George H. W. Bush, 1989-1993, $401 billion.
9. Obama, 2009-2012, $325 billion
10. Kennedy, 1961-1963, $310 billion.
11. Ford, 1974-1977, $261 billion.
12. Truman, 1945-1943, $231 billion.
Adjust that list for inflation rates and it becomes:
1. Johnson, 5.2 percent.
2. Kennedy, 4.2 percent.
3. Clinton, 3.9 percent.
4. Reagan, 3.4 percent
5. Carter, 3.2 percent.
6. Eisenhower, 2.9 percent.
7. Nixon, 2.8 percent.
8. Ford, 2.5 percent.
9. George H. W. Bush, 2.1 percent.
10. George W. Bush, 2 percent.
11. Truman, 1.2 percent.
12. Obama, 0.3 percent.
As usual it will come down to which legacy wins out. The right wing will constantly spout about the economic legacy of Reagan and the left will talk about the economic legacy of Clinton. As usual the GOP will win the majority white male vote (as they always do) and the left will take most of everything else. Unless the GOP can reach out to more communities including but not limited to the growing Hispanic community and African-Americans, which I see as pretty unlikely, we will be looking forward to another very close running. The US is becoming more socially liberal so the same policies usually expounded by the GOP may hurt them instead of help them.
The top issues will be economics and gay marriage I'm predicting.2