There's no way it's going to last if it doesn't undergo centralization (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralisation ) to a functioning and efficent world government. I think we're heading in that direction though; it is inevitable but most likely not in our lifetimes (I'm placing my hopes on a "United Earth")
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On the contrary. It will last very precisely if it does NOT undergo centralization. A world government is the worst idea since religion - it will just not work. At least not in this century, not in the next and maybe not even in the one after that. A United Earth is something that I hope will never come at least not in my lifetime.
Oh and the current UN is a joke pretty much. I mean the Secretary General's main duty is to be "concerned" about the situation in the world. That's his job. No, ok. The UN does partake in some aid campaigns but it as a method of preventing and monitoring wars, it's crap.1
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