I've already shared three "MyTakes" taking stabs at Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, and Bernie Sanders supporters, so now it's time to pick apart a common argument given by the Ted Cruz supporters.Just like any other Election, I see fallacious arguments from the variety of supporters. Now, it's time to pick on the Republicans again, but first, here are some details about me.
-I don't currently have an avid support for any of the candidates.
-Again, I could care less who you support: It's the reason WHY you support, or WHY you feel a certain way I'm more curious about.
- I will try to debunk an argument I see used for EACH CANDIDATE'S supporters.
Ted Cruz supporters tend to have a common argument, and the argument is posted below.
The Argument given by many Ted Cruz supporters: Donald Trump won't get enough delegates, and therefore, we can go to a brokered convention and get Ted Cruz the Nomination.
For anyone who doesn't know, a Brokered Convention(Which is commonly referred to as a "Contested Convention") is a convention when none of the candidates receive enough delegates to clinch the Nomination. In THEORY(THEORY, the key word), ANY candidate is now eligible to win the Nomination, as long as they can effectively argue to the National Convention for their political party. However, here is why this argument is heavily flawed.
Reason One: Donald Trump is in good position to mathematically clinch the Republican Nomination.
Let's pump the brakes for a moment: We might not even have a Brokered Convention in the first place. Donald Trump needs 43 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the Nomination, and a big bulk of that 43 percent remain in Indiana, New Jersey, and California-Three states Trump will more than likely win. This means Donald Trump needs roughly 250 delegates to clinch the Republican Nomination. Republicans have a rule where if you win at least 50 percent of a state(Even in states which aren't "Winner-Take-All"), you get all of the delegates. Going by demographics, and polling averages, as well as regions Trump has won in, he very well could win 50 percent in California, New Jersey, West Virginia, and New Mexico. This is a stretch, but plausible. However, let's draw a realistic scenario-Which will be generous to Ted Cruz.
Donald Trump has roughly 987 delegates, and needs 1,237 delegates to clinch the Republican Nomination. Let's say Trump wins Indiana. Even though the demographics, and region are against him, the current polling average has him with a three percentage point lead in the state. This is a "Winner-Take-All" state, and he will win all 57 delegates, bringing his total to 1,044 delegates. The next state is Nebraska which is a proportionally based state, and borders Kansas. Since Ted Cruz does great in the Great Plains, he should dominate this state. So, let's say Donald Trump gets 20 percent of Nebraska's 36 delegates-This will give him about seven more delegates. Now, his total is 1,051. On this same day, proportional West Virginia will vote, and due to it being a southeastern state, Donald Trump should dominate the state-Let's say he wins 45 percent of West Virginia's 34 delegates, this adds 15 delegates to his lead. So now, he has 1,066 delegates.
Now, it's time for proportional Oregon, which Donald Trump is expected to win 43 percent of Oregon's 28 delegates, going by a recent poll. This would mean he gets twelve more delegates, meaning his total is now 1,078. Since Oregon is similar to Washington demographically, let's say Trump wins 43 percent of proportional Washington's 44 delegates-He now adds 19 delegates to his lead, meaning his total is now 1,097 delegates.
Then....it's time for a huge day June Seventh. his is a day we have a good chance of seeing Donald Trump(and Hillary Clinton) clinch their Nominations. Without a doubt, Ted Cruz should win "Winner-Take-All" states such as Montana, and South Dakota, since he has been dominating the Great Plains the entire Nomination process. However, Trump should destroy Cruz(and Kasich) in California, New Mexico, and New Jersey-Which very well may give him the Nomination. He is leading by a massive margin in California in several recent polls, tends to do well in the southern states(New Mexico borders Arizona, a state he dominated in), and New Jersey is a northeastern state which borders his home state of New York. If Trump can win 50 percent in all of these states, he would add 247 delegates to his total-Very well surpassing the magic number of 1,237. However, let's say he doesn't hit 50 percent in these states. Let's say he wins 45 percent of the vote in all of these states. I did the Math, and it turns out he would win 164 more delegates to his total-He would have 1,061 delegates, surpassing the Magic Number by 24 delegates.
But let's say he doesn't hit the magic number by state voting totals alone. Many of the states have odd Congressional rules which tend to benefit Trump(It's not just proportional, or "Winner-Take"All), and many unbound delegates in Colorado, and North Dakota which may go to Trump(They can change their minds). Also, Marco Rubio's delegates may pledge their support to Trump, as an effort to get the Nomination race over with. So even if he doesn't hit the "Magic Number" on votes alone, he still has a good chance of hitting the 1,237 number with endorsements, and unbound delegates.
Conclusion: There is a good chance we won't even see a Contested Convention.
Reason Two: Ted Cruz would have a difficult time persuading the Republican National Committee without a delegate majority.
Ok, so let's say we do have a Contested Convention(For the rest of this "MyTake", I'll assume as such). Ted Cruz was mathematically eliminated from clinching the Nomination on April 26th. He's still eligible to win a delegate majority, but unless a miracle happens, Ted Cruz won't win more delegates than Donald Trump either. This means he will try to win the Nomination without a majority of delegates.
Interestingly enough, a majority of Brokered Conventions have favored the candidate with a minority of delegates-For both political parties. However, those were decades ago, and times have changed. Ted Cruz isn't just "behind" Trump-He is very very very far behind in popular vote, states won, and delegates. If he was slightly behind, he would have an argument. But the fact is, Cruz has lost all age groups, all religious groups, all regions(With the exception of the Great Plains), all income levels, and even female voters against Trump-As well as the slither of minorities voting in the Republican Nomination-And Ted Cruz is a racial minority!
Simply put, Ted Cruz can't rely on General Election polls, or an appeal to pathos to win a Contested Convention-The numbers are against him.
Reason Three: Similar to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz also has very high unfavorable ratings.
A common argument by Ted Cruz(and Kasich) supporters is that Donald Trump has way too high of unfavorable ratings to be the Republican Nominee. While I would agree with this, it doesn't stop Math from taking its toll on Cruz(and Kasich)-But it also doesn't stop the fact that Ted Cruz has very high unfavorable ratings compared to John Kasich, and Bernie Sanders(slightly lower unfavorable ratings than Hillary Clinton). While Ted Cruz may not be as unfavorable as Donald Trump, he's still "hated" by many Americans.
My theory: Ted Cruz is too conservative, even for die-hard Republicans.
Reason Four: Ted Cruz has a scandal problem, which doesn't look good for the Republicans.
Sure, Donald Trump may say the most controversial comments, and outlandish statements-But one thing he seems to escape, are scandals blown up in the media. Do the Republicans really want to nominate a man who is in the spotlight for a sex-scandal? Probably not. Sure, it may be irrelevant, but Republicans don't want this type of negative attention on their candidate-Especially since there is an extremely good chance they will be running against Hillary Clinton(Who has a number of scandals on her belt).
Not only is Ted Cruz unlikeable, having a sex-scandal under your wing-Especially when you claim to be an "evangelical Christian", makes you look like a hypocrite, and a weak candidate.
So, tell me what you think in the comments!
Most Helpful Opinions