My ex has started interacting with me on Instagram. Am I overthinking what he means by this?

I dated this guy for 4 months and it didn't end well. He was losing interest in me and started distancing himself from me and acting cold. In the end, when I kept asking why he was acting like this he said I always bought up problems and broke up with me by saying it wouldn't work out. I was upset and still messaged him a couple of times saying I was sorry and that I really wanted to understand him more but if he didn't I respected his decision. He never replied to any of those texts. We haven't talked in 6 weeks. He started avoiding me on Instagram too but didn't unfollow me. He would never view my instagram story or like my posts even though he was active on the app after we broke up.

Recently, it was my birthday. He decided to view my instagram story that day. He saw a picture I posted for my birthday the day I posted it because he was online and liking pictures right then, but he liked it the next day. Now he's viewing my instagram stories everyday again. Why would he do this if he's been avoiding me for so long?

I keep feeling like he's going to reach out to me again but am I overthinking this?
My ex has started interacting with me on Instagram. Am I overthinking what he means by this?
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