Most Helpful Girl
Most Helpful Guys
No. It's bad legally and will immediately be blocked by a judge. He should just keep refusing to sign until they pass it. Nobody is leaving the Trump position because of the shutdown, a lot of people are starting to say that it's ridiculous that the democrats are refusing to give him the money. The cost of the shutdown has now exceeded the amount he wants. We already have a lot of walls built. The only reason for continuing to refuse to give the money is that you hate Trump. That doesn't work well.
The short answer is "no," but there are some peculiar twists and qualifications to that. It could be an odd way for the President to gain a minor political victory and to extricate himself - on the dubious assumption that he wants to - from the government shutdown.
To start, the President does have statutory authority to declare a national emergency under the aptly named National Emergencies Act of 1976. Under the terms of that legislation the President must stipulate the need to declare a national emergency and therein lies the rub.
The President's rationale - not his authority to declare such an emergency - would almost certainly be challenged in the courts and at least at the lower court level would likely be blocked. Particularly in the legendary 9th Circuit.
The history is that such declarations invariably go to the Supreme Court and the SC invariably sides with the Executive. However, only under very rare circumstances is such a challenge given expedited consideration and there, from the President's perspective, is the problem. It is possible it could be years and, assuming that the President is not re-elected, it would mean that his win would come after he left office.
As an aside, the President would almost certainly win a court challenge in the end. The Supreme Court has a tradition of deferring to the Executive in such matters, Indeed, President Carter was the first to use - and be challenged for - a national emergency declaration. Over the swine flu. He won.
That latter point is also relevant for those Democrats who claim that there is no national emergency. For them it is not an emergency - unless government workers don't get their paychecks on time. Unless immigrant children die - as at least two have. Then, well...
The bottom line is that the Court will not second guess the Executive. If the swine flu can pass muster, after all. However, that makes it a dangerous tool. It either sets a precedent that becomes a usurpation of the legitimate powers of Congress, or if the President should lose, the power of the Executive could be circumscribed in ways that might be useful under more urgent circumstances. (See also the terrorist attacks of 9/11 as Exhibit A.)
Summing it up, a national emergency declaration is playing with dynamite and is best left not made. As Burke said, grievances are best endured until they become abuses - and so it is in this case. There is just not enough there, and the danger of a bad precedent is too great for a declaration to be a good idea.
Given this President's proclivity for playing with political dynamite, however, one despairs that he will not wake up one morning and declare an emergency. Not on the basis of any prudent calculation, but because of little more than his transient moods. Interestingly, however, in that connection, the President has one motive to make an emergency declaration as a way to extricate himself from the shutdown and gain a win of sorts.
The President built his reputation as a populist raging against the "Swamp." An emergency declaration divides the GOP overall, but fighting the "establishment" resonates with his core constituency - particularly lower middle income and blue collar workers - within the party.
Were the President to declare an emergency and then be stayed in the courts, it would be a way for him to say that he did all that he could but that the "Swamp" blocked him. That message would undoubtedly ring true to the President's constituency and cause it to rally to his side, thereby also pulling them away from the Democratic party to whom they were previously loyal until the 2016 election.
The President wins by losing - ditto a scenario where he would be abandoned by Congressional Republicans - and perhaps the only thing
mitigating against it is the President's narcissism. He does not like to be seen as losing.
Add it all up, an emergency declaration would be a bad precedent that divides the GOP. Pandora ought not open that particular box.