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The media tools is that Hillary would win the election and it wouldn't even be close. Don't believe what the left-leaning media yes you about a recession. This is just another attempt for the media to influence the outcome of the election..
This website's will kill you before anything else
That's the whole thing media blows it up as you know 1979 or 78 that time on gov tels media
Media told us. . . (damned autocorrect!)
Given that the current economic expansion is over ten years old, there is certainly historical precedent for assuming that a recession will be forthcoming. The typical economic expansion usually ending about 3 to 3 years earlier. However, the economy is transitioning from an industrial/extractions base to a service/high tech base, and that may have a distorting effect on economic patterns.That said, the evidence of an economic slowdown are mounting. The German economy - Europe's largest and the world's fourth overall - is in recession. Ditto the Italian economy. (Europe's fourth largest.) The British economy - Europe's second largest - just had its first quarter of shrinkage. (Two more quarters of decline and it will be in recession.) China's economy - the world's second largest -is still growing, but at a considerably slower pace than had been the norm. Throw in the trade war with the United States and the upheavals in Hong Kong, and China's prospects do not look good.Beyond that, the aforementioned trade war is having knock-on effects all over the globe. Uncertainty about tariffs and America's erratic monetary and trade policies combined with efforts by President Trump to bully the Fed into lowering the value of the dollar to offset Chinese tariffs and currency devaluations is unnerving global business and investors. Business and investors love risk but hate uncertainty and they are getting uncertainly in buckets right now.The bright spot in all this is the U. S. economy. Among the world's largest economies - the U. S. is the largest - it has the highest economic growth rates. However, growth is slowing somewhat. Consumer confidence is high but spending is slowing, particularly in the retail sector where the trade war with China is driving up consumer prices. The agricultural sector is similarly being hit by the trade war. The real estate sector is stagnant and business investment is way, way down. The dollar, as noted, is being talked down by the President to offset the trade war with China.Add it all up, and the United States, particularly when carrying its own economic burdens, is not apt to be able to continue to offset stagnant and shrinking economies among its primary trading partners. In an ideal world, U. S. exports are growing and domestic consumption is rising, facilitated by business investment. Right now, the U. S. is growing but with none of those other factors working in its favors.Things change and nothing is yet set in stone. However, based on historical averages, a recession is likely to follow, though when is an open question. At this stage, the economy could continue to grow well past election day. Much depends on what happens with consumer confidence, which right now remains high with very low unemployment and represents about 2/3 of the American economy.How a recession would impact the primary and general elections is an a whole different book. In terms of the primary election, at least at this stage, the impact is likely to be minimal. The first votes will be cast next February and unless there is an unexpected economic calamity, any recession is likely to come on too slowly to really impact the outcome. That said, the slower the economy, the more the populist tone of the nation's politics is likely to intensify. That would likely shift primary voters to the left and that would help candidates like Senators Warren and Sanders. The paradox being that general election voters may want more stability and not the kinds of systemic upheavals that the activists are seeking.It is simply too early to tell at the general election level. A more moderate Democrat candidate will likely do better in a recession. The President will likely get the blame for a recession, but if he is seen as a relative safe haven in tumultuous times, the country might just decide to stick with him. Not certain, but not impossible.
Coming to the most Common pieces of news and other economic information that appear to signal an upcoming recession, or would potentially have a negative impact on markets depending on how events play out. In particular:♢ The ongoing trade war between the US and China♢ The possibility of Brexit occurring later this month or year♢ The US Treasury yield curve inverted back in December, which is considered by some to be a long-term indicator of recession (as of March 20th, the 7-year rate is lower than both the 1-year and the 1-month rate)♢ Although less reliable, Shiller PE ratios for the S&P 500 are higher than average (30.68 as of March 21st) which usually means a correction is needed to reduce inefficiencies in the market♢ Major financial institutions, international corporations, oil production facilities, etc. are preparing for a global economic slowdown♢ The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that no interest rate hikes were planned for 2019♢ Unemployment in the US is at a nearly 50-year low, and job growth numbers are down, indicative of a slowdown-------------------------Economies are cyclical, recessions happen from time to time, and the longer the expansion the greater the likelihood of a recession.Economic managers try to reduce the magnitude of recessions, not prevent the cycle.Most of this is just the fact that the business cycle is reaching its peak. Unemployment is historically low. If the economy keeps growing, there will eventually be labor shortages which will lead to inflation. The Central Bank will then raise interest rates to keep inflation in check which will cause any asset bubbles to burst. That'll cause a hiccup in the economy and unemployment will tick back up for a while.It doesn't have to be a major recession. Most recessions are not like the one we had in 2007-2009. But a downturn for a couple of quarters once or twice a decade is actually quite 'normal'.----------------------Trying to time the market doesn’t work, and even professionals can’t do it. The very lucky few who manage to look like they’ve done it can’t replicate their luck.My Econ professor mentioned that there will always be a bunch of economists predicting doom, because they are guaranteed to be right at some point—some day.There will be a recession, and it will seem so clear why it happened in retrospect, just like all of the others.And then the financial press can't help but praise the genius of men like Roubini, Taleb, Schiff, and Faber even though they were wrong for the preceding decade.-------------------------So In Total Do people believe a Recession is coming? - Yes.Does people know when it will come? -No.But , Is it going to be as bad as the 2008 Financial Crisis? - Unlikely.
Recessions generally follow a period of artificial growth, such as the housing bubble caused by Clinton changing lending laws (and Bush too distracted to address) that resulted in millions of people getting loans for houses that they could never afford and would never have qualified for under the old rules. That created a huge bubble that was always going to burst.There's nothing like that in the current economy. With several renegotiated trade deals and the winding down of the war in Afghanistan, the US economy is doing much better without it being artificial. There's no bubble to burst right now.The dollar is up against the other major currencies, which means that there's going to be more US foreign investments, which will both help the US investors and the economy of the countries that get the investments.Obviously it is more complicated than that, but there are no danger signs, unlike the mid-2000s, when banks were being stupid and so were borrowers.I think it's very telling that the Democrats would rather see the US in a recession than to adjust their policies. Why would anyone vote for such self-serving politicians?
Good question - Okay I am no economic guru but those that are say the warning signs are there - How would a recession effect any of the election well say the recession hits and the trickle effects come through - Would the job losses have started by then, very hard to get a new job, mortgage foreclosures - I don't think so by November 2020.Plus sides are so polarised, how long will Donald Trump's kool aid last "This isn't happening fake news". It might factor into the Dem primary possibly favouring a progressive candidate. In the general I don't see it, Donald Trump will poll 40 to 45% with a fervent 35 to 38% base - For a Dem to win they have to match those figures, hope for a very strong anti Donald Trump enthusaism plus the majority of independents but the Dems need all that because if they discount the fervency of Donald Trumps's base at their peril, they made that mistake in 2016.The Dems probably turned out 80% of their base in 2016 (respectable) but Donald Trump turned out 98/99% of his base
Yep. Credit is too easy to get and is being bundled into junk equities again. The fes has gekd iff on vrining the interest rate up to regulate the market. Short selling is on the rise because the market has been deregulated, which means that the market will increase in volatility until it crashes. Median income is still low, so people have over extended their credit. Balloon interest rates have vecome common again. If the dems win 2020, they'll put someone in office just as the crash hits, just like in 2008. That President will do what dems do: pump money into the economy to stimulate growth. They'll do that for two years until the midterm, and then reps will take congress on the promus that they will fix the economy. They will slash spending. In the end, it wpuld have been better to have either kept spending high, or to have started with austerity, but because we switched course half way through, itll drag the recession out another 4 years. Thus has happened in roughly 12 year cycles since the 70s. In a denocrat, so my solution would be to stop deregulation, but id get on board with a republican plan at this point, as long as something gets done.
Depends on how people react, and YES! it could definitely change the dem primary. A recession typically makes people more open to change and thus it would make more radical nominees get noticed more, especially nominees who focused on debating about the economy and job market. Basically it would make Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders be the only Democratic nominees worth discussing, a centrist like Biden would not make it in a recession since he advocates on very little change and the people would want change that would reinvigorate the downturned economy.
It could be a possibility for sure. The last few years have been somewhat slow economically and now is picking up speed. Where I live I expect there to be a minor housing market crash in 10 years or so and who knows about other places too. If there were a recession the Democratic party could definitely hold that above Trump's head since that's his main point. The Democrats could rally to a victory if this were to happen. Otherwise I would expect the Republicans to get re elected since Donald Trump is keeping a good amount of his promises so that emboldens his voter base and could bring in new supporters too.
It will certainly change the general if it comes.I don't think it will impact the dem primary THAT much but I might be wrong. it will create less space for socially progressive candidates to talk about how woke they are, as the focus swings hard to the economy. But I don't think that particularly hurts Biden (who will say 'hey i'm a veteran steady hand and understand blue collar workers') Sanders ('see the system is terrible, trump just shoved in tax cuts then tanked the economy i'll help the workers) … or probably even warren (somewhere between the two). It probably creates less space for a Harris/Castro type, but they don't look to have a great shot right now anyway.
From the looks of it yes. Once the farmers broke down and start eating government payout without growing anything, the related industries like livestock's, farm equipments, machines, fertilizer companies, crops vendors, shipping companies and a while lot more start to get affected... Raising minimum wage isn't helping.Government will have to increase spending to prevent recession turning into a depression and dramatically increase debt level to unsustainable.People starting to feel hopeless, student debts grows into trillions, house prices get depressed, uninsured people go bankrupt, Medicare spending grows into massive number as more people become poorer... etc. you're looking at a potential starvation, spread of disease, over taxed of hospitals, lack of medicine... etc.
Yeah, of course, economics is cyclical. Recession will always follow a period of economic expansion, and expansion will always follow a period of economic recession. If the economy just kept growing and growing then we’d have serious trouble with inflation. This is just a basic economic concept and has nothing to do with which party is currently in charge, so it shouldn’t change the outcome of any upcoming election. However, most people are ignorant of this and expect the economy to keep growing forever if it stays under the political rule of whatever party economic expansion began in, and when it inevitably recedes again they blame whoever’s in charge, so in reality it probably would affect people’s political opinions.
Yup, agreed.People also tend to think that whenever there is economic growth, the administration deserves the credits. And when there is a recession, the administration is to be blamed. None of those are actually really true.Generally people are pretty ignorant on this matter
yep, there are a lot of signs that point to it. The short term treasury notes have a higher yield than longer term notes, which indicates less confidence in the future. There is also the trade war the mobster president has created, which really is an unforced error and will exacerbate any downturn.What will happen come election time is anyone's guess, but it's going to take a lot more than insulting tweets and a chaotic foreign policy to keep a downturn from coming.
Honestly the market hasn't been looking that great. The S&P 500 dropped almost 3% today. Overall, throughout Trump's candidacy, we've seen great improvements in the economy though. What's really going on is we're setting higher tariff's with china who has been ripping us off for a lot of years. His strategy will benefit us long term, but it sucks seeing the market plunge like this. I personally don't think a recession is coming. The trends that come right before just aren't happening. I'd be surprised if we saw one anytime soon.
Recessions will happen periodically, no matter what we do. We are in a particularly vulnerable place right now, as Trump set up massive tax breaks for the wealthy, and increased our national debt dramatically. That set up a good couple of years, just like if you wantonly used you credit card for two years, you would say times are good. But you have to pay the piper. Now, if we have a recession, the things that are normally done to lessen the depression, have already been used up by Trump. We can't have another massive tax break to stimulate the economy, because the last one was too recent. And the last one was unnecessary, just a political move. As said, we are especially vulnerable now, especially with Trump being unable to listen to good economic counselors, and having ticked off much of the world. Usually, a recessions is made better by world economic cooperation, but Trump has so screwed up relations with our allies, that we will get scant cooperation from them.
Recessions come and go, always have in modern times.Right now there is little reason to believe the United States will enter a recession anytime soon, we're on fire, doing the best we've done in a very long time, maybe ever. Yes there are some bumps here and there but that's all they are, right now no indicators are pointing toward a recession in the US.What has a strong possibility of changing that is if a Democrat wins the Presidency next year. Their policies break every economic rule in the book and could throw us into Depression era catastrophe, maybe worse.Part of me wants a recession to happen in the early 2020s, will be able to buy a house dirt cheap.
What do you mean is there a recession coming? In case you haven't noticed, it's been here!! It is past the point of being a recession, and has gone into being a depression. Democrats and Republicans set aside there is no one party to blame for the financial difficulties that we are now experiencing. I wish everyone would get off their goddamn high horse and simply just work together to make this country better! but everyone is too busy pointing fingers and saying that the other person is to blame.
Formally, there is no recession because there aren’t two quarters of negative economic growth
There's a lot of indicators that say so. DOW dropped 800NASDAQ 240 today(Watching my stock portfolio drop through the floor is no fun)Pay isn't keeping up with cost of living, lot's of jobs but none of them pay anything.Current fed rate is 2.25 Yah, we're in a recession but no one wants to say so.Trump is to blame for a lot of it, not the sole cause but certainly one of them. I just don't see him being reelected, not with the mess the US is in right now. I'm not sure how that's going to effect the primaries, the Republican party may oust him themselves knowing he has no chance of reelection, but he does have his fan base, and his own state news. So who knows.
What are you on and where can I get some?
@gotc147 Let me guess, you believe that Trump is doing a good gob? That's fine, enjoy your fantasy. The worst President of my life time, arguably one of the worst Presidents in history. He's a con man and a cheat, always has been and probably always will be.
On the economy, yes, we've rarely done better.So you got a lot of names to call him and vague "he sucks" comments but you have no substance. How about some articulation? Other than tariffs with China what is he doing that's so bad and how is it bad?
@gotc147 trade wars are a good place to start, another is the lowering of corporate tax rates, though I do pay corporate tax It's not good for the economy to do that. It stifles growth and reduces employment. Another is the rollback of breaks for certain types of small businesses, another is the tax package (I saw a 0.02% increase in our household taxes, don't piss on me and tell me that it's raining) another is the milking of the national treasury for his own gain. Another is the reduction of STEM research and education, stifling furthur development and putting us further behind. Another is messing with tourist traffic by making the US seem inhospitable to foregners. Shutting down congress over a useless political stunt (by far the majority of all illegal immigrants entered this country legally and overstayed their visas no wall is going to stop that) All of this and more has been done and more under his watch.
Yeah I'm really going to need your dealers number, I need some of the stuff you're on.First off I said other than the nonsense with China, most people are in agreement that that's bad policy.If you own a business that pays corporate taxes, you (your business) do not pay corporate taxes, your customers do, they're baked into your prices as business expenses and if they're not you're a crappy businessman. Any reduction of taxes is a good thing because it makes things cheaper, including employing people. Your apparent belief that higher taxes increases employment would make most economists fall out of their chair laughing at you.If your taxes went up it's because you're making around $500,000/year, that was a criticism of the tax cuts bill but ultimately 80% of Americans recieved a tax cut, even the New York Times admitted this.Most of the rest of your complaints are about things thay aren't happening. Milking the Treasury? His net worth has dropped by over a billion dollars since he launched his 2016 campaign. Putting us "further behind" in STEM? We're lightyears ahead of everybody else in medical research, cures and Nobel Prizes thanks in large part to our refusal to adopt socialized healthcare. Most illegal aliens came here legally and overstayed their visas? The only stat on thay says the number is 40%, on what planet is 40% "by far the majority"? Even if it was a majority, so what? They're still illegal aliens.So yeah, your dealers number please, I want to drift off into fantasyland for a while.
@gotc147 I love it when people who don't understand corporate taxes try and explain corporate taxes to me. I am the sole stockholder and CEO of a C corp. I handle my companies taxes myself and have taken multiple classes on accounting. Further I use to teach small business management and part of my lesson plan included double entry bookkeeping (the old fashioned way without software) when I say I understand corporate tax structure I mean I UNDERSTAND corporate tax structure. Your information is incorrect, no consumer ever pays corporate taxes, nor is it an expense that can be passed on by it's very nature and structure. No my tax bracket was much lower than 500k last year think more solidly middle class. Trump has been in the red for many many years. He's also cheated many private contractors over the years and has squandered his fathers fortune. He's not a good business man, and he has used the US as a way to pull himself out of debt. The issue with your statement is that corporations are taxed on net not gross, as opposed to personal income taxes which are based on gross.Let's take 100kBusiness made 100k After payroll, operating expenses etc the balance is 20kAt current tax rate (21%) the tax debt is 4,100 leaving a balance of 15,900 that money can be rolled over into the next year payed out in dividends etc.Now if the fed rate was flipped to 79.9% now the tax burden is 15,900 and funds left over is 4100 which situation encourages the business to increas expenses? Such as hiring a part time employee? Or in other words when corporate tax rates are high businesses have a tendency to spend more to reduce their tax burden.
Still waiting on your dealers number dude.
Yeh, Trump shouldn't have slapped his Namesake on the DOW. It has been a bloated market for several years and into Obamas term due to extremely low interest rates from the FED. His tariffs will probably be the prick that deflates his “big fat ugly bubble”.
No.. Not yet..Wait for it recession and economical crisis will arrive with beginning of war between centralized and decentralized economy.. From the Winter of 2020 and rage onIn winter of 2021 and calm for few years à then start again after 2025
Yep, it seems so.Everyone panics when it dips a little bit, so they sell in a hurry, and it snowballs.Causes a huge loss when it should only be a small loss.What can you do?I only invest in weapons manufacturers like northrop grumman, general dynamics, etc. People are always going to invest in killing one another.
Yes!I warned everyone before the 2008 crisis hit that it was coming. My own parents thought I was crazy and even suggested I see a therapist (true story). I've been warning again for many years that another crash is coming and this will be much bigger. You better get into precious metals and BitCoin (and other cryptocurrencies) because that's where all the money will flow when they do the fourth round of QE (Quantitative Easing).
Yes, with the nations safety net being cut and slowly dismantled for a stupid wall, along with almost every buisness only wanting to give minimum wage which requires people to work multiple jobs to survive.people are struggling to survive in this economy just like the last recession before it got worse, so unless the nations safety net is fixed, the tariffs are removed to allow trade and our relations with foreign nations are restored. We will keep slowly declining into the next recession
Big one coming. Like the 2008 crash. Regardless of what happens in the world, our American politics are never affected. The bad side wins, and thr even worse side can't stop crying. In the end, the same people always get fucked.
A recession was coming whether or not Trump was elected. The issue that Trump has not prepared for it. But a lot of folks in government failed in that regard.
Every ten years up down over & over tromp been good they
You kids need go outside and play thats whats wrong never see kids play out side in years lazy
So long as we have a federal reserve manipulating the money supply and interest rates, there will always be recessions coming up... dunno how close the next one is though...
I don't think so, but I could be wrong. And yes, it would definitely affect the outcome of the election if that happened.
Those who continue to believe that politicians regardless of side will ever save us from ourselves are fools. The only ones claimimg relevance is the politician and the only one believing them is the idiot. Only an idiot waits for government to provide the prosperity which it only delivers as political lip service in the form of a campaign promise when in reality prosperity has always been in our own individual hands.
A recession is just a sign of consumer confidence. If enough people believe in it then it eventually happens. You can cause them just by saying the word enough times. Eventually people start acting more reserved, and then it snowballs.
When the economy crashes, the party in power is blamed and replaced. I don't know if there will be a recession or not because advantaces in technology keeps saving us. Otherwise, we would already be in a MAJOR DEPRESSION.
I don't know if it's coming soon but of course it will effect the general election. Trump will have much less of a chance in a poor economy since a strong economy is really all he has going for him as far as things to brag about.
None of the current Democratic candidates have much of a plan to begin with. Just a lot of weak attempts to buy votes from stupid people. Most of them wouldn't have the slightest clue on what to do to deal with a recession, much less actually care.
I've been saying it For Years, We are a Bit Overdue but Yes... Will happen to Me and You. xxoo
A recession is likely just because of the climb that we have been on for the last few years. That said, it probably won't be bad, and it will likely be short lived.
I hope there will be a huge recession. Because people tend to getting back to normal rational believes in such situations. We need that desperatly with all that craziness going on atm.
there will be a recession just look at the national debt of each country in the world. its raising rapidly. This can't go onhttp://usdebtclock.org
I think a collapse of the USA is coming. Once they get the guns. The good ole USA will be gone.
A recession is the only hope the Democrats have to beat Trump. Personally I don't think a recession is coming soon, eventually we'll have another one we always do, but I'd say we have 3 or 4 more years.
Absolutely. I think we are headed towards severe and troubling times and that will soon leas to the return of Jesus.
Very very sorry but thats not going to happen if you get there are 2 bridges in life bridge of faith or bridge of belief very stange "
There will never be another jesus and why you down world is fine just got a few screw ups but its as best i ever saw
are you kidding? xD recession is running full tilt. specially in america xD i hope recovery comes soon.
This could always be true for some jobs but not others. It almost depends on how many people do their best work.
lmao your already in recession being held up by a thin thread when it falls you'll realise the mistakes made long ago.
Yes. The experts have been saying one is coming about 5 years ago. They predict it sometime during the fall of 2020.
I’m in Canada and we’ve been in a recession for a few years now, it’s our weak liberal globalist government keeping us this way, hopefully you guys don’t end up the same way
Yes, it's coming and will be caused by the collapse of the Chinese economy. Which has been building a bubble for the past 20+ years. But just hasn't collapsed due to the CCP propping it up, which has only made thing worse in the long run.
There is no question a recession is coming. The questions are how soon, and how deep.
most likely will happen but when who knows but when people are uncertain they start buying less of what makes the economy stronger
plus more people are paying more for food an clothing so they dont buy the eltronics an when you have that many people cutting back it's bound to happen soon
If there is we cannot do anything. Just weather the storm...
Obviously it would to a degree... I dont understand people that root for a recession in the economy for political gain though
YES as everything is turning to shitethe stock market has lost 61 billion dollars
A recession hitting is the only chance the Dems have. So I’m sure they’re praying for one. Not sure we’ll see one, though. The economy is chugging along pretty strong.
I trust in Donald Trump. He will guide us and Make America Prosperous.
No, not a recession , a Depression is coming that will make last Depression look like a picnic.
Yes the motherfucker of all recessions is coming. Your partisan politics are unimportant when there's no food in the shops.
Yes.I don't knowAnd I don't vote anyway so idc
Yes, recession is coming
Yes, a big recession is coming.
Yea hopefully not yet
yes, when is a different matter
Ha it sure does look like e
Ha it sure does look like it Trump is a Dump
Next is my country India
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