What do you think is the main reason that the US economy is slowing?

CallMeDave u
A report issued yesterday showed US manufacturing contracting for the second straight month. A report issued this morning showed that new jobs created in September were less than expected and less than in August. The US stock market dropped significantly in the past two days based on fears that the economy is slowing or perhaps head for a recession.

Some blame the tariffs / trade war that's been going on this year. Donald Trump blames the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates more than they have (even though they're already well below the historical average and have been for 10 years). Others think it's just the normal business cycle and after about 10 years of growth we're due for a recession.

What do you think is the reason?

(I'll post my opinion in an update in a day or two.)
Tariffs / trade war
Vote A
Federal Reserve policy
Vote B
Normal business cycle
Vote C
It's a combination of the above things
Vote D
I don't think the economy is slowing
Vote E
I don't know / I think it's something else
Vote F
Select age and gender to cast your vote:
7 mo
As promised, here's my opinion. I think the business cycle is the primary reason. The tariffs/trade wars aren't helping, but I think there would be a slowdown even without those. I definitely do not think it's the Fed's fault. Monetary policy has been very stimulative for a decade now and even before the Fed's recent rate cuts, the fed funds rate was still well below it's average level. Central banks around the world, including the Fed, have been stimulating the economy, not hurting it.
7 mo
I also don't think the impeachment inquiry is much of a factor. Yes, that's disruptive, but relatively minor in my opinion. And if Trump is removed from office and replaced by Pence, I don't think much would change in terms of fiscal policy. Maybe he'd scale back the trade wars, which could actually help, but probably wouldn't change much else that would affect the economy.
What do you think is the main reason that the US economy is slowing?
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