I want to as well!!
agree not heading for 2008 banking crash and already went through the '29 market crash, but negative interest rates in Europe, fed dropping rates and reversing QE again (pumping cash into system), slowing economy... recession (which is normal but pushed out of the way)... eventually leads to crash of something... pensions, emerging markets, currency?
We still have the lowest unemployment since after WWII.
yes, there are good metrics. It's by way of debt and creation of money... and there is a lot of "junk" in the system build up again... e. g. nearly 1/2 of companie are BBB credit quality. If I live off my credit card and home equity, I can live an amazing life. When get to the point I can't pay the interest, that's when the trouble occurs. Govt has longer threat since they can simply print money, but that means the money becomes unstable at some point. That leads to global instability and usually war as others challenge for the power to control the reserve currency, which is ultimate control over the world... and wealth. that's what I understand of history, and why money printing is dangerous, wish I knew more or had a better plan than they have. enjoy the happy times and hope for the best!
I was asleep under a tree. It's still going on... just slow motion due to the QE drugs... I suspect.
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you must know more than I making that kind of return. That's where the money is (it's not in working a normal job) and they are passing more around as before. Print money... assets go up. I don't think anyone knows how this turns out, but I believe historically, there are patterns and was I was better educated on more history. But as wealth gap widens, politics divides, and power shifts, social upheaval. Fed won't let the market crash, but what of the dollar? All you can do is try to be one of the successful ones if you can be smarter than most...Politicians will not make decisions until forced to. What will force their hand?
No i don't lightbulb it's just been an unusually good year. I usually avg about 7% annually.Yeah you're right but you never know when the cliff is coming. A lot of people think the stock market crash in "29" was the great depression. In actuality it was the beginning and it's bad decisions over the next 4 years. That just exacerbated the situation. Which caused the depression.It's funny i have a friend that has over 1 million in his portfolio (he's way smarter than me) pull it all out at the beginning of the year. I asked him if he saw a big correction coming and his response was reminiscent of yours he just said "hey, i've been in this game for over 20 years and i've gotten pretty good at seeing where the market is going". And he said the correction is inevitable he said we've gone too far to fast over past 10 years. And the problems we had then still exist". He admityed he doesn't know whether it'll be tomorrow or a year from now. But he'd rather just forgo any immediate gains for now and not lose all that he has. LolThis. Was a year ago i asked him a couple months what he thought and he was still sticking to his guns.
It's never an easy call... even the big boys are still in, but they know its messed up. Buffet has a lot of cash. Ben Grahm said to always be in, but shift percentages. that good advice bcause govt always wants it to go higher, that'st he wealth effect. But i you lose now 20%, that erases a lot of gains:) e. g. go up 20% is not same as 20% down...
Agreed i live my life by that maxim. When the market goes up i'm making money. When it goes down well now is the time to buy stocks that are undervalued. Or just more shares of what you already have so-to-speak :)
I know that's not what you said really but it is in the same spirit.
I think that's right. as long as you are good at company analysis and management selection. Is GE good, how about GM... Lucent, Enron, Lehman? Powerhouses in their day... now toast under debt and lies. What kinda of crazy shiz would you do if I gave you a 100k loan at -1% interest? ... think your business would pay off? I doubt you'd care. That's the problem, when money has no value, it distorts markets and a lot of evil piles up one cannot see until some special moment like 2008. But its the only thing they (govt) can do, so the lies, accounting tricks, deception piles up until it caves in again...