If it wasn't clear, my answer to the question was, approval rating has nothing to do with anything.
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He definitely has a 45-50 chance, although the numbers are always going down
Obama was 47.9
It was lower than that the lowest in history
His approval rating was 49.4
Not always. It's pretty easy to find out historical approval ratings, just google it.
It sure is a special race when the person that comes 2nd wins.