This is a great response and the question was intended to start discussion just as you have done. In your opinion, what is the possible outcomes from what is happening now?
Thank you for your kind remarks. As regards your question, although it is not unlikely that something more substantial could happen, an interim agreement of some kind on principles for future negotiations going forward strikes me as the most likely. The President keeps hinting at something more substantial, and my hunch is an extension of the moratorium on North Korean missile and nuclear tests is not impossible. Perhaps in return for a modest limit on U. S.- South Korean maneuvers. (The latter being possible as the latest U. S. maneuvers have concluded. Thus, both sides would be giving up something more symbolic than real as North Korean tests are over for the time being as well.)However, again, both sides will have to take care. The U. S. cannot do anything that would panic Japan, which unlike South Korea is strategically important to us, and North Korea, while looking to get out from under Chinese dominance, cannot push the envelope too far.That is my best guess.
You clearly have a better knowledge of the situation than I do, but my thoughts have been leaning that direction as well. There isn't really a while lot of wiggle room in any direction for either country. It's fairly clear that north wants more power and flexibility and the us wants nukes out... it's hard to imagine too much other than a possible thawing of relations. North Korea really doesn't seem to have anything to lose
Generally I am in agreement with you and my compliments on your insights. However, I disagree with your last point. In fact, North Korea is going down this road because it is trying to free up its own options.It's nuclear arsenal exists more as a restraint on China than on the U. S. or South Korea. To repeat, China benefits from the status quo. North Korea acts as a buffer zone. South Korea - the world's 11th largest economy - as a trading partner. (China-South Korea relations have been excellent - especially under the current government.) The U. S., is stuck like a fly on flypaper on an indefensible peninsula it first became engaged with in part by accident. For North Korea, its' main problem has been that China keeps a foot on the North Korean windpipe. Its nuclear arsenal gave it room to open negotiations with the US, ( China does not want war on the peninsula,) but little else. If these negotiations go nowhere at all, the North will have shot its boltCONT.
The North wants greater freedom of action from China without losing Chinese protection. It, too, is walking a tightrope. However, it does not want to come this far only to end up, yet again, as little more than a Chinese satrapy - particularly in the economic realm.As it is, China effectively determines North Korea's economic well being. Which is what the North Koreans discovered when China gave in to U. S. pressure to tighten sanctions. The North Korean do NOT want to go down that road again.
This is a great conversation and yes I see your point. Thank you for sharing
Not at all. My pleasure and I enjoyed it as well.
Just curious. What do you think now?
Hello there. Fundamentally, I don't think much has changed from our initial analysis. The agreement that was reached - all two pages of it - was full of vague generalities that need to be filled in substantively. I was not sure that the United States would offer to stop the military maneuvers, but it did. That said, as the next maneuvers are not due till August, and then after that not till next Spring, that can easily be reversed.So not much has changes and the fundamental strategic problem facing the United States - being committed to the defense of a strategically valueless and indefensible peninsula, leaving China free elsewhere in the region - has not changed. Indeed, it is not surprising that China issued a statement fully supportive of the meeting. They probably got more out of it than any other power. That said, as North Korea can read the language of the deal in the way it has traditionally, a non-nuclear Pyongyang will not be likely anytime soon.
Yes. Is there anything in this signing that is hidden from most of us?
There is no way to know what we don't know. Certainly a secret protocol is a possibility. That said, China and Japan continued to hold a de facto veto and that puts a limit on what the United States and North Korea can do.Ironically, China benefits the most from a non-nuclear North Korea. It retains North Korea as a buffer, South Korea as a trading partner and the United States stuck like a fly on fly-paper. This last because while South Korea does not mean much to the United States, it is vital to Japan. Yet because Japan retains constitutional and treaty limitations on its armed forces stemming from the end of WWII, (and also has a very poor relationship with Seoul), it absolutely needs the U. S. on the peninsula. (A U. S. withdrawal would undoubtedly send the Tokyo stock market into a tailspin, bare minimum.)So those are the outer limits of any deal. Any secret protocol that strays too far from that would not likely last.
Awesome information and very much a chess match with implications. Thank you
Not at all. A pleasure chatting.
Doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to see that he would go Down in history for this. xx
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Sure, well you can go back. But don't send me and my friends.
@HamAndCheese *shrugs* it wouldn't be a good war. It would be a necessary war.
For who? Arms manufacturers? Necessary war my ass. North Korea is like a hundred years behind us.
@HamAndCheese the 20 year old who lives comfortably tells the 37 year old who, at 20, was stationed 3 miles from the DMZ (which is the most militarized place on the planet) that North Korean bullets are too old to kill people, that NK atomic weapons are too outdated already to harm the US or it's people, and that their 12k armed and loaded artillery pointing to once of the largest civilian populations in the world is too antiquated to cause any real damage.WHat's next on your agenda? Middle east peace? Solving hunger and homelessness? Come on genius, let's see what you've figured out.
Yeah, could you imagine the horror of trying to achieve good things like peace and decent life? God willing, you'll meet the same fate as John McCain and all those other warmongers. You're a vicious and bloodthirsty human being.
I didn't downvote the comment, I downvoted you. Respect your elders dummy.
Respect is earned, not given. Tsk tsk, entitlement is a bad mindset.