Personally, I think it is far more likely Iran will just try to blow up an Israeli embassy, like in Buenos Aires in 1992, or that they will instruct some militias to launch some missiles towards US military, or they will instruct Hezbollah to engage Israel. In all those ways, Iran can just use plausible deniability, the conflict remains relatively contained and neither side would start a massive war. Except for direct retaliation against e. g. a unit launching missiles.
That big pile of looming debt is still the elephant in the room though. :)
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