What major events of 2021 do you think might be most impactful to your life?

Question

Here are some thoughts on what you could see this year...

What major events of 2021 do you think might be most impactful to your life?

A. The trials of various officers - We've already had some acquitted. If some are turned loose, like Derek Chauvin, I'd expect chaos not unlike Rodney King verdict in LA. At what point does this blow up and how bad?

B. A central bank collapsing - do you know what a central bank is? Do you know how highly leveraged they all are? This doesn't happen often, but it does happen in history. At some point, they are insolvent. The first central bank of the USA collapsed long ago.

C. Stock market collapse - not saying it's likely, no idea.

D. War tensions - Iran USA or China USA.

E. Food shortages

F. ? What you think might be a surprise event?

Trials of officers, such as Derick Chauvin

A central bank collapse

stock/bond/dollar collapse

War tensions

Food shortages

Other

Select age and gender to cast your vote:

GirlGuy

Answer 1

tartaarsaus | 686 opinions shared on Trending & News topic.

Master

A central bank collapse is technically impossible. It’s entirely possible the CB loses international reserves or loses assets, but they can effectively print currency to prevent their collapse. But I’ll just interpret as a financial collapse, which would be the most impactful.

tartaarsaus

10 d
Basically, a central bank will exist as long as the government gives mandate to the central bank to conduct monetary policy.

Any government pushing for the end of central banking and a gold standard is also pretty insane so no country even does it
tartaarsaus

10 d
After all, if you are the single entity that has permission to create what you would run out of, how could you run out of that thing? Not that they need any natural resources, most money is electronic.
tartaarsaus

10 d
For all intents and purposes, a central bank can lose trillions upon trillions and simply create more liquidity to have a balanced balance sheet
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lightbulb27

9 d
they have collapsed though. The IMF there to back them up and bail out. howt hat works I'm no expert.
tartaarsaus

9 d
Eh, no.

The IMF intervening typically happens in two scenarios.

Either the government assumes too high debt, cannot pay the debts back and defaults on debt. Then the IMF intervenes with a bailout package and economic reforms to restructure the economy.

Other scenarios where the IMF intervenes is when the central bank maintains some form of fixed exchange rate. However, this requires intervention by the central bank in the market with international reserves. As international reserves deplete, the regime loses credibility and a speculative attack happens (or one forces the depletion of reserves). Then the IMF may step in with international currency to maintain the fixed exchange rate (though usually lower).

In neither of the cases does the central bank actually go bankrupt because it literally cannot collapse. It can only give up its exchange rate regime if necessary because in all other cases, it only requires legal mandate to conduct monetary policy for it to sustain itself. Again, how can you run out of what you yourself have the absolute authority to create?

Answer 2

tartaarsaus

Basically, a central bank will exist as long as the government gives mandate to the central bank to conduct monetary policy.

Any government pushing for the end of central banking and a gold standard is also pretty insane so no country even does it

Answer 3

tartaarsaus

After all, if you are the single entity that has permission to create what you would run out of, how could you run out of that thing? Not that they need any natural resources, most money is electronic.

Answer 4

tartaarsaus

For all intents and purposes, a central bank can lose trillions upon trillions and simply create more liquidity to have a balanced balance sheet

Answer 5

lightbulb27

they have collapsed though. The IMF there to back them up and bail out. howt hat works I'm no expert.

Answer 6

tartaarsaus

Eh, no.

The IMF intervening typically happens in two scenarios.

Either the government assumes too high debt, cannot pay the debts back and defaults on debt. Then the IMF intervenes with a bailout package and economic reforms to restructure the economy.

Other scenarios where the IMF intervenes is when the central bank maintains some form of fixed exchange rate. However, this requires intervention by the central bank in the market with international reserves. As international reserves deplete, the regime loses credibility and a speculative attack happens (or one forces the depletion of reserves). Then the IMF may step in with international currency to maintain the fixed exchange rate (though usually lower).

In neither of the cases does the central bank actually go bankrupt because it literally cannot collapse. It can only give up its exchange rate regime if necessary because in all other cases, it only requires legal mandate to conduct monetary policy for it to sustain itself. Again, how can you run out of what you yourself have the absolute authority to create?

Answer 7

TwoToTooTutu2 | 54 opinions shared on Trending & News topic.

Xper 7

I'm in the US Army. I might go to Taiwan if Xi Jinping wants to act funny.

lightbulb27

10 d
oh hell... I def don't want that going on. Although I've heard they have some great food.
Yea, China invading Taiwan be a mess. I doubt that happen.
TwoToTooTutu2

10 d
I doubt they will either, but they insist it will happen in 2020... oh wait.