the website 538 (projects. fivethirtyeight. com) provides and has been cited and awarded by many outlets from all sides as the most reliable and most comprehensive election forecaster. contrary to most sources, which simply take popular polls, 538 weighs most importantly polling by state as it impacts the electoral college which ultimately decides our election.
as of Wednesday last week Hillary was given a 89% chance of winning office. After the FBI/Comey story of further investigation into additional emails from Clinton's private server Clinton's lead dropped from 89% to 82% and as low as 66% yesterday. However, today she has gained a point but even more important based on their forecasting has flipped (albeit in some cases by a razor thin margin) Florida (+.2%), North Carolina (+2%) and Nevada (+6.8%).
i'm curious. if the release of news that Clinton was under further investigation didn't totally flip the election for trump or at least get him close to a 5 point margin (usually about the biggest margin for error)...
What do you think it would take for Trump to further dig into Clinton's lead?
What will it take for Trump to be victorious on November 8th?
Most Helpful Guy
I think he does have a chance as it stands but the clincher would be for WikiLeaks to dump classified emails from her private server - (I don't want to jump the gun but I think they would have done it my now) - I think WikiLeaks will have held back something stinky for tomorrow or Monday but is it enough to move needle and I think HRC may drop a sly dig on DT too over the weekend so probably will cancel each other out.
At the moment I think HRC will win because I feel that she will get NC and to counteract that DT will have to take PA. The fact he needs about 7 or 8 things to go right out of about 9 things and she needs only 1 or 2 out of about 7 gives her the edge BUT ALL THAT SAID I won't be surprised by election going either way.1