Clinton has increased her lead slightly in the last 24 hours. What do you think would cause her to lose ground or this election?

the website 538 (projects. fivethirtyeight. com) provides and has been cited and awarded by many outlets from all sides as the most reliable and most comprehensive election forecaster. contrary to most sources, which simply take popular polls, 538 weighs most importantly polling by state as it impacts the electoral college which ultimately decides our election.

as of Wednesday last week Hillary was given a 89% chance of winning office. After the FBI/Comey story of further investigation into additional emails from Clinton's private server Clinton's lead dropped from 89% to 82% and as low as 66% yesterday. However, today she has gained a point but even more important based on their forecasting has flipped (albeit in some cases by a razor thin margin) Florida (+.2%), North Carolina (+2%) and Nevada (+6.8%).

i'm curious. if the release of news that Clinton was under further investigation didn't totally flip the election for trump or at least get him close to a 5 point margin (usually about the biggest margin for error)...

What do you think it would take for Trump to further dig into Clinton's lead?
What will it take for Trump to be victorious on November 8th?


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Most Helpful Guy

  • I think he does have a chance as it stands but the clincher would be for WikiLeaks to dump classified emails from her private server - (I don't want to jump the gun but I think they would have done it my now) - I think WikiLeaks will have held back something stinky for tomorrow or Monday but is it enough to move needle and I think HRC may drop a sly dig on DT too over the weekend so probably will cancel each other out.
    At the moment I think HRC will win because I feel that she will get NC and to counteract that DT will have to take PA. The fact he needs about 7 or 8 things to go right out of about 9 things and she needs only 1 or 2 out of about 7 gives her the edge BUT ALL THAT SAID I won't be surprised by election going either way.

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    • 1mo

      it's interesting my friend runs the republican office in delaware county in PA (a suburb of philly). he told me today that PA is a toss up. i haven't seen anything to confirm this (everything i've seen show clinton with a 3to1 shot in the state)

      if he wins PA that would go a looong way to winning the election

What Girls Said 1

  • The polls are up, the polls are down, the polls are a dead heat, and honestly none of it matters until Tuesday

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    • 1mo

      but the question is. what would/could happen for trump to win the election

    • 1mo

      Real talk 👍

    • 1mo

      The falsified advance voting will never be known.
      The system is rigged, says Trump and that's right. But he suggests it's rigged against him, but it's the opposite.

What Guys Said 5

  • Gained a point is called "moving within the margin of error", it's completely meaningless.

    Here is a general rule of thumb for reading this elections polls: when Trump is up by any margin, he is "slightly ahead" or has a "statistically insignificant lead"... When Clinton is ahead by half a point she is "rocketing into the lead" or is "miles ahead".

    Trump's support may be higher than polls suggest given his base being as energized as it is, also thanks to Wikileaks we know the polls were oversampling Democrats (frequently by as many as a 2-1 margin Dems/Republicans) , though whether they are still doing this or not is unknown.

    Regan was 6 or more points behind heading into the 1980 election, here in North Carolina in 2014 Thom Tills was trailing Kay Hagan by 4 points for a good long time but he ended up winning. Brexit, Conservatives losing the British Parliament, Dewey vs Truman, which state did Sanders beat Clinton by a landslide but the polls showed Clinton winning comfortably? Wisconsin? Michigan? One of those upper midwest states...

    The point is if you're supporting Trump, bad polls are not an excuse to stay home discouraged.

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    • 1mo

      Another professional has said that during the last few days we tend to get a flood like a dam breaking. These represent about 20% of voters that flip flop but then vote. These flood gate voters will most likely go Trump considering everything that has happened

      A poll ny fox (which reports more of the truth) says now 75% of America thinks Trump is more Honest now

      Its going to be a blood bath lol we'll see

    • 1mo

      i didn't say she skyrocketed did i? i just said after losing 20pts in a week she has gained in 24hrs and flipped some states

      really just take what i said at face value

    • 1mo

      but agree that no matter what the polls say of either candidate people need to vote

  • Wallstreet just predicated it's going to be trump that wins, however Julian Assange believes 'they won't let him win'

    So far we have 2 people that have never been wrong for the last 50 years. A professor and now wall street. So Lets see if they are right for the 51st time. The odds are obviously in their favour with 100% accuracy within a 50 year period

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    • 1mo

      Right but to answer the question

      First of all, she would lose for sure if her media pala reported what is going on with her. Wikileaks showed her emails from Bengazhi, she was notified 6 times that they needed help. She fucking murdered our soliders. Also shows that obama was notified over 5 times she was using a private server. He lied clearly

      The chairman of homeland security just called her actions treason

      The link between trump and russia is closed, there is no link. In addition Julian has also said the source of the email dump was not Russia. So thats done. Most likely it came from usa to expose Hillary

      And much more. If that was reported correctly, the way it should. She would never had had a chance to begin with. You Hillary supporters are lucky her corrupt wheels are keeping her safe

      But whats actually going yo happen. The flood gate of final voters will give trump the edge. Hopefully

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    • 1mo

      haha nevermind you hit it. thanks

    • 1mo

      Lol yea.. but really it's anyone's game. I think Hillary has a better chance to win. Donald winning is more of a last minute flood of the gates

  • He would have to raise women voters

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    • 1mo

      definitely a huge part of any potential trump victory. you can tell hillary knows this by her adds which are heavy on the allegations of sexual assault and usually talk about his sexism

  • If voter fraud magically disappeared.

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