Is a new war begining in Russia with Ukraine, the biggest Russian war, since the Cold War? Ukraine is still in trouble and trying to start a war with... Show More
Most Helpful Opinion
Since the fall of the USSR, Russia has held control of the Ukraine government.
This recent invasion is due to the fall of the Russian-backed government in Ukraine.
The Ukraine is the most important USSR breakaway state, because there is a major oil pipeline running through the country.
Much of Russia's GDP comes from oil, so if a pro-Western government comes into power, Russia will permanently lose control of that pipeline.
That situation is completely unacceptable to the Russians.
Pretend you are at home (in Russia), and the power lines going to your home crosses your neighbor's yard. Now you have a new neighbor (pro-West govt) and he decided to cut the power lines to your house. It will take you 10 years to build a new power line. Or you can invade your neighbor's yard and kick him out. That is essentially what is happening.
Controlling Ukraine is absolutely necessary to Russia. From a military and national security standpoint, I predict they will use an INCREDIBLE show of force to overwhelm the Ukraine. This means putting 5 pairs of boots for every 1 civilian in the capital, so that there is zero tolerance for uprising and instability.
From a political standpoint, any threat from the US or UN will fall on deaf ears. The US does not have the political leverage to stop Russia. An outright attack on Russian troops could start World War 3. No leader is stupid enough to do that. Any sanctions on Russia will be very timid, seeing how the US is still recovering from a very painful recession. Russia has the ability to cripple the US economically, since the US depends on Russia for 10% of its oil imports. Any sanctions to Russia will probably mean an equal retaliation through oil.
Russia also supplies 60-70% of Europe 's oil. So don't expect the EU to go against Russia either.
There will be no war or civil uprising. In the end, Ukraine go back to Russian control.