Why are they so confident this will happen?

Over the past few years, my ex and I broke up several times, and it was always for the same reason. Because I wasn't her religion, or a religion at all. Anyway we called things for quits in September I'd say.
Since then, I kind of accepted that it was over and j worked on moving on. I dated a few girls and they we're not a good fit. But recently, two of my friends insist that my ex is gonna come back because they believe she is gonna get off her religious high, and realize I'm too important to lose.
I even met a woman who said my ex got into religious shock, and once it wears off, she will come running back. But this woman told me that it'd be a test, and she'd come back and I better have learned my lesson and tell her no.
Why are these friends and this woman so confident about this?
Why are they so confident this will happen?
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