Is my friends theory right?

Almost a year ago, my girlfriend and I broke up. Saying she couldn't date a non Mormon. After a few months I tried to fix things, and she said things weren't able to be fixed. She brought up other reasons for the break up, but they sounded like horse shit.
Anyway, I started to move on. I've dated again, and made my life better. But recently, my friend and I noticed my ex starting to show up on my social media, interacting with it, but not reaching out.
He believes that when we broke up she was on a religious high with her church because she took a higher step within it. He thinks now she is calming back down and seeing how I'm doing. Seeing of I'm doing good without her.
The other day, I saw her and when she noticed me, she was just staring at me, I looked back at her but went about my business. She looked at me almost like she did when we dated
My friend thinks, now she knows I'm doing better without her and she's lost her hold on me. He believes she will reach out to me again and I'll have to decide to let her in or kick her out for good.

Is my friend right?
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Is my friends theory right?
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