# POLL: if something has 95% chance of being true would you say its a fact?

• fact
Vote A
• opinion
Vote B
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## Most Helpful Guy

• By definition, it's a fact if it is 100% true. That's how it works.

Besides, how does when determine this "95% chance of being true"?

In mathematics, we have words for this:

A theorem is a logically proven fact based on other facts. For instance, if X is a real number between 0 and 1, then X^2 <= X.

A conjecture is a mathematical hyopthesis or something that appears true but gas not yet been disproven as false or proven as true. One classic conjecture is the Collatz Conjecture which states this:
Let N be a positive integer that will be the first number in an arithmetic sequence.
The next number in the sequence is N/2 if N is even.
The next number in the sequence is 3N+1 if N is odd.
Keep repeating the sequence.
Eventually, the sequence will look like...,4,2,1,4,2,1,4,2,1...
Here's an example starting with 11:
11, 34, 17, 52, 13, 40, 20, 10, 5, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, ...
Anyway, aparently this is true. No one has found a value for N where the sequence ended, 4,2,1,4,2,1... So, we call that a conjecture, but we can't call it a fact despite it apparently being true.

But I want to so you an example where being "95% true" doesn't mean it is a fact... Earlier, I said this fact:
If X is a real number between 0 and 1, then X^2 <= X

This is not a fact, but it is true for 95% of the values for X. (So, in a sense, it is 95% true.)
If X is a real number between 0 and 20/19, then X^2 <= X.

Yet, this is a fact:
If X is a real number between 0 and 20/19, then there is a 95% probability that X^2 <= X is true.

(B T W, 20/19 = 1.052631579...)

So, to answer your original question...
Q: If something has 95% chance of being true would you say its a fact?
A: No, it is not a fact.

Understand?

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• *
Anyway, aparently this is true. No one has found a value for N where the sequence DID NOT END 4,2,1,4,2,1... So, we call that a conjecture, but we can't call it a fact despite it apparently being true.

• Forgot a number...

11, 34, 17, 52, 26, 13, 40, 20, 10, 5, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 4, 2, 1, ...

## Most Helpful Girl

• Nothing is 100% in life; opinions, facts, it does not matter. 95% is enough of a "fact" for me because I know that nothing is 100% certain.

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