Another major concern is the incubation period. I read several stories this week claiming patients were showing symptoms 16 or 19 days after visiting a potential locations of infection. Some even push that number upwards to 24 days. So all of our efforts to quarantine patients for 14 days have been in vain. :/ If we are successful with it, it’s only because we were lucky…
So we all gunna get pneumonia? Im glad im a truck driver and not a healthcare worker 😟
@Meatunnel69 No not everyone... There are varying levels of symptoms in different patients, but when you have 26.1% of patients being transferred to intensive care that’s pretty overwhelming. The complication rate is way high. The USA only has 94,837 ICU beds across the entire country and many of those are filled with patients with other issues. That’s less that 2000 ICU beds per state even if you threw all the people having strokes, heart attacks, etc. into the gutter. If China is any indicator, once we know we have an outbreak we’d surpass those numbers in about 9 days in a typical metropolitan area… We’re not in any way ready to handle that in a good way. Patients will be pushed to step down units quickly because around half of those patients ending up in ICU receive invasive ventilation (tracheotomy with positive pressure ventilation and oxygen) which can leads to secondary bacterial infections over long hospital stays. I don’t know, it’s just not good. It’s not going to be pretty. Just have to triage...
Here come those deaths… The passed few days they were about 90-100 per day. Today close to 250 dead...
Where'd you get that mortality rate? I read it was only one percent.
@DanOh2018 The only mortality rate I mentioned was for severe ARDS. ARDS is usually graded based on a clinical severity from mild to medium to severe. I searched PUBMED last night for figures on ARDS mortality rate and was seeing between 40-70% depending on where you fall on the severity chart. I found a study that seemed like it was reasonably well conducted that had a 30-day mortality rate of 60% for severe ARDS last night (I didn’t bookmark it but if you search you could probably find it) and I thought the more conservative number of 60% was better than the 70% figures I was seeing elsewhere. The rest of the numbers were coming off of several recent studies of the situation in China that were published in JAMA specifically about coronavirus/COVID-19.So if we take the percentage of cases being classified as severe to critical that need ICU care (26.1%) and multiply that by the number of cases that are transferred to ICU due to ARDS (75%) and then multiply that by the figure for 30 day mortality for severe ARDS (60%). 26.1%*0.75*0.60 = 11.75%. I’m not saying that is the mortality rate of coronavirus (COVID-19) but it a good estimate of case fatality rate (CFR) working with numbers that being published. Only time will tell... There are other complications that are leading to patients being transferred to ICU but severe ARDS is the big bad in the room. By itself if not managed well can cause respiratory failure. It can lead to kidney failure as a complication due to stress in relation to respiratory acidosis as the kidneys try to balance pH. It can lead to congestive heart failure due to pleural effusion… It’s a long ride that requires a good deal of care, thus long stays can lead to secondary opportunistic bacterial infections and so on…
The theory behind the really low overall mortality rate that is being pushed in the media is that most people probably don’t show up to the hospital to begin with for care. They’re figuring maybe 10% of infected individuals actually seek assistance. Thus the figures witnessed would be reduced by a factor of ten. I like working with what I can see. There could very easily be many cases that are never reported. The problem I see with that assumption though, is China is going door to door to evaluate people in their homes and forcefully arresting people and taking them to the hospital to be checked. They have put out bounties to rat out citizens that show any symptoms. It’s a police state after all so what applies in the West doesn’t exactly hold water there… While I know they can’t feasibly find every candidate, the same goes for deaths. So you operate with the evidence in hand until new evidence is discovered to come up with an estimate. It’s not like any of us will know the real mortality rate until next year anyway. Mortality rates are deaths per 1,000 individuals in a population per year. China also happens to have a really large population to water those numbers down and we are only in the second month of this thing (as it’s being reported). I’m more interested in case fatality rate at this point, because you can take small samples of several hundred patients and see trends.
I seared PUBMED a little more this morning and there were studies reporting from 46-70% for severe ARDS mortality rate so maybe that’s our range on that, but I’d have to look through the data sets of all the studies and compile my own set. I also read another study of 138 cases in China that reported 61.1% of patients being sent to ICU for ARDS so over those two 61.1-75% ARDS ICU patients. So if we apply those figures we’d likely see a case fatality rate somewhere between 7.3-13.7% on ARDS as a complication. Then you have other complications dealing with septic shock and cardiac issue to add to those numbers but they are a smaller portion of the overall picture and there is a good deal of overlap with current ARDS patients being sent to ICU.
Hmm perhaps a country retreat would be in order...
@DanOh2018 If that’s an option it couldn’t hurt… The best way to deal with this is to get out of the way to isolation if possible and practice rigorous hygiene habits. With an R0 of maybe 4.7-6.6, a potentially very long incubation period (maybe 16 or 24 day), asymptomatic spread, high complication rates of 26.1% primary severe cases of ARDS which has a 30-day mortality rate of somewhere around 46.1-60%, an under prepared health system, and many world governments that take the economy more serious than it, the last place you want to be is in the hospital were it spreads like a wild fire, were staff and resources will be highly overwhelmed during an outbreak, while having to watch news broadcasts parroting that the flu is worse while listening to the repeated beeps from medical monitors and bung bong of clinical room alerts that are ignored by overworked nurses drilling your brain 24 hours a day for a month or two with a tube sticking out of your neck that breaths for you while you are unable to speak and communicate because they gave you a tracheostomy... :/
There is no cure for the common cold you gotta ride it out
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Just say the coochie is where the virus collects
@Meatunnel69 coronavirus spreading by direct contact with coochie yeast
Bitch was coughin on my dick and i was like hell nah get me a mask for diss D
@Meatunnel69 this is why ion fuck wit Asians. They don’t spread coochie, they spread COrona
@Meatunnel69 ... a blowjob with a face mask on. I kinda like that picture :D
@andreasderjuengere just imagine the deepthroat 😍
Im more of a shallow throat enthusiast
Yeah: there's no mineral oil to get out of that; no new market to be developed; no world-policing heroism to be created.
So you say that it's safer to only eat at KFC's? :D
@andreasderjuengere It depends on how nationalistic your country is. If you're in an open borders type situation, no. In fact don't eat at any globalist fast food chains, that's gulag slop. Eat at mom and pop restaurants or at home.
You mean the Chinese CDC?Because the American CDC used to work in China, until two years ago: "... the CDC is planning to scale back [its epidemic prevention activities] include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo"www.washingtonpost.com/.../And, more recently, "There is no one in the White House tasked specifically to oversee a coordinated government-wide response in the event of a pandemic, since the post of senior director for global health security and biothreats on the national security council (NSC) was eliminated last May."www.theguardian.com/.../us-coronavirus-budget-cuts-trump-underprepared