Do you think Bernie stands a chance against Trump in 2020?

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  • I think he's the democratic front runner because his base is very solid.

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  • As a practical matter, where Senator Sanders was, in 2016, something of a novelty - not even being a Democrat even as he ran for the party's nomination - now he is but one of a number of candidates who holds similar views. So, to that extent, to borrow a phrase, where once he was a choice, now he is an echo.

    This is the starting point for considering what Sanders brings to the 2020 election. Throw in that he is elderly - and to the degree that identity politics is a force in the Democratic party and his being white and male are actually strikes against him.

    Indeed, his base of support in the Democratic party is mostly among those who resent the fact that the party rules were tweaked to work against him in 2016. This is, for his base - and I say this slightly in jest - about revenge. His staunchest supporters say they were cheated out of the nomination.

    That is a dubious assumption but it is a driving motive in a large segment of the Senator's base supporters - if indeed even the Senator himself. The rules were tweaked - that is the record, particularly in the allocation of uncommitted "super delegates" to the party convention. However, it is problematic that it cost Sanders the nomination.

    At any rate, that is why Sanders is taking such a harsh tone in his run so far. He is, in effect, being the Donald Trump of the Democratic party. He is explicitly appealing to that sense of resentment - as Trump appealed to it among lower middle class and blue collar voters - in his base to drive up their turnout.

    As an aside, it is worth noting that Sanders did VERY poorly among African-American primary voters, garnering a paltry 25% of them. Moreover, in the general election, about 30% of those who voted for Sanders in the primary went on to vote for Mr. Trump in the general election.

    Put simply, if Sanders cannot win the most core voters in the Democratic party - the African-American vote - and if a part of his vote was lost to the Republicans in a general election, he will not likely win the party's nomination this time. Moreover, if he did, he would likely lose to Trump in a general election in an election that most Democrats believe that they should be able to win in a walk.

    In that connection, two things are worth noting. First, what Sanders is espousing - and what the media are calling socialism - is not socialism. It is populism and it is a hardy perennial in American politics going all the way back to Andrew Jackson and William Jennings Bryan. Indeed, to the extent that it is socialist, it would not likely appeal to more than a minority of voters.

    The related point being that the central objective for the Democrats in 2020 is to regain the lower middle class and blue collar voters who had been at the core of the party's coalition going back to the New Deal-Fair Deal era, but whom they lost by the shipload to Donald Trump in 2016. Sanders never appealed to that group.

    Indeed, one of the great paradoxes of American history is that socialism - the philosophy of the working class - never really appealed to the American working class. It was always more the philosophy of the academic and a segment - ironically - of the well to do elite. To the extent that Sanders, then, is viewed as a socialist, he is apt to cost the Democrats voters whom they lost in 2016 and need to win back if they want to win back the White House.

    Put simply, Sanders is not likely to win the Democratic nomination - indeed, in the 2018 mid-term elections are any indication, he is less popular among the party mainstream than he is assumed to be. He is hoping, by taking the harsh tone that he is has, including much vitriol toward the President, to exploit the part's collective sense of grievance, but too many other candidates are following the same game plan.

    In the unlikely event he does win the nomination, Sanders will likely lose a general election the Democrats, all other things being equal, should win. Suffice to say, Sanders' time is past.

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  • Not sure about Bernie specifically, but I doubt Trump will get enough votes for a second term.

    I certainly hope not.

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  • As a non-American, I hope so, I don't like the direction the US seems to be going in :/

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  • Hell No !!! He couldn't beat Hillary in the primaries
    and now Biden is ahead of him in polls and Biden
    has no clue whether he's running or not so far it's
    undecided but people are pushing for Biden and
    also Biden has no money to run for US President.

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    • 7d

      Ngl I would just want Biden to run because I’m pretty sure he’s the only person that can defeat Trump..

    • 7d

      @KC1545 People claim Biden can be the only one to defeat Trump so who knows?

    • 7d

      Yeah. I agree with you tho. Bernie has a good heart but I doubt he’ll win...

  • The establishment is already pulling stunts against Bernie. Did you see the CNN Q/A when they claimed it was just regular people asking questions but it was actually DNC connected operatives? No chance they let him through.

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  • I think he stands a chance, but I think Trump probably wins that matchup.

    Bernie is not a strong candidate. The only reason he gave Hillary trouble is that Hillary was an incredibly weak candidate.

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  • I do not think that Trump will be relevant in the 2020 election in the first place.

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  • I think Bernie stands a solid chance of winning the dem nomination. I think it’s good for Trump if he does.

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  • 1) He is a socialist
    2) He is old , would be oldest ever elected
    3) He only has 30 and under votes, the Billionaire Democrat will take older Democrats away from him.

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  • Nope, he is too much of a socialist for the democratic party.

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  • Yes, a chance, but I doubt he'll win. He would be 79 by then.

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  • Trump will wipe the floor with Sanders... but if democrats set him for the election... why not that just helps Trump. ;)

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  • I doubt it

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  • I hope not. He is out to destroy the usa

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    • 7d

      We need Jesse "The Body" Ventura President and Rand Paul for VP

  • No way Jose

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  • You kidding

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  • Probably depends of democrats cheat and steal the election from him again...

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  • I think Biden and Romney should run.
    Bernie might be a little to progressive to get republicans to switch.

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    • 7d

      Yes i like Biden and Romney

    • 7d

      @GoodGuyBreakingBad
      Me too.
      I feel like they'd be a lot more reasonable and they would help unite the country again.

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