Germany is expected to buy gas from Russia, can we expect US led regime change in Germany?


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  • Well, to start with a few fun facts.

    1) The United States has twice imposed regime change on Germany. See also 1918. See also 1945. Suffice to say, that was the better outcome. Indeed, even in Germany today the misty eyed romanticism for Kaiser Wilhelm II and Adolf Hitler is pretty thin on the ground.

    2) Germany is not expected to buy natural gas from Russia. However, there is a long history of a love/hate relationship between Germany and Russia. Russia has been a supplier of raw materials and foodstuffs to Germany. Germany has been a supplier of finished industrial products and technology.

    (Ironic aside. As German troops invaded the USSR on June 22, 1941, they watched supply trains filled with grain going from Soviet wheat fields going into Germany in the other direction. The Soviets were literally feeding the country that was invading them.)
    Further, even in the Cold War, this was the case between West Germany and the USSR. Marx said, "Workers of the world, unite!!" Adam Smith said, "The merchant has no country." For all their differences, both capitalism and socialism are universalist philosophies that assume that ideas of nationality, religion, language, ethnicity and suchlike are superficial and that man is a homogeneous, amorphous mass.

    3) Germany is not a natural member of the Western alliance. As Kissinger pointed out decades ago, Germany's problem is that it is two weak to rule the world and too strong to be secure within the European balance of power.

    The whole point of NATO being - as Lord Ismay put it - "To keep the Germans down, the Russians out and the Americans in." The EU is similarly a diplomatic and economic structure designed to anchor Germany within the European balance of power. Protecting Europe from Germany while making Germany feel secure within Europe.

    That said, Germany still needs Russian foodstuffs and raw materials. Russia, by contrast, has shrunk from the world's second largest economy to the 14th. So it needs to sell where it can when it can.

    Yet Germany still sees Russia as a rival and is deeply hostile to Russian incursions into Ukraine and the Balkans. So Germany tries to have it both ways. It uses NATO and the EU as a shield against Russia even as it buys Russian food and raw materials.

    In the meantime, Russia uses its role as a supplier of food and raw materials and a purchaser of German goods and services as a way to neutralize NATO and draw Germany into a role of economic interdependence. This thereby undermining German resistance to Russian dominance, particularly of eastern Europe.

    It is NOT that Germany is EXPECTED to buy gas from Russia. It is that it does so for reasons of economic convenience. Suffice to say, Germany hopes to balance NATO (and the EU) against Russia.

    This then drawing in the United States. Which not surprisingly has other fish to fry and does not want to find itself subsidizing by indirection the very country that it is expected to go to war against if things go sour between Russia and Europe.

    This does not suggest that the United States will be attempting regime change in Germany. Indeed, to repeat, the United States accepted this situation even during the Cold War. The difference being then that Germany was divided and thus was not a threat to the overall European balance of power.

    Post-Cold War, the issue gets a bit more confused. A united Germany, which France and the UK had both hoped originally to avoid - two world wars demonstrating what things can go wrong when Germany is united - complicates the picture. However, it does not change the fact that the U. S. has lived with this ambivalent relationship through most of history since 1871. (The year Germany was first united.)

    Long story short, the question is based on a frivolous, not to say silly, reading of history. It is also presumes bad motives where, in fact, there are complicated and ambivalent ones. This is what the world looks like when seriously analyzed. As opposed to mere caricature.

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    • 6 d ago

      Type-o: This - "Germany is not a natural member of the Western alliance. As Kissinger pointed out decades ago, Germany's problem is that it is two weak to rule the world and too strong to be secure within the European balance of power."

      Should read: "Germany is not a natural member of the Western alliance. As Kissinger pointed out decades ago, Germany's problem is that it is TOO weak to rule the world and too strong to be secure within the European balance of power. "

  • I think Germany is just trying to prepare themselves for possible WW3

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  • If Putin asks the republicans to do so, yes.

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