That is how much they estimate the pandemic will last if there are more waves. People are already getting fat and depressed and losing jobs more people die of heart disease and cancer each week than have died of Corona until now. (20 million of heart disease/ year worldwide, about 10 million of cancer/ year worldwide). 800k people die of suicide each year, i imagine this number will strike from the increased number of people who will feel more stuck, depressed an hopeless over the 18 months. Same for te other health issues, they will grow longterm, even though we can't see it now.