Who says 0.15%?
@goaded The Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine: www.cebm.net/.../
Extrapolating from the global data, the fatality rate among those who are symptomatic is c.0.4% (0.2% to 1%); and based upon their earlier assumption that 35% of infected individuals are asymptomatic, that gives an overall infection fatality rate of 0.26% (as of 20 May). However, a new case report indicates that this was a massive underestimate, and that in actual fact, around 75-80% of infected individuals are/were asymptomatic- time.com/.../ Which would instead give us a true IFR of 0.08-0.1%- which is actually markedly lower, and could be as little as half the risk of death which I've been facing every single second of my life since the age of 14. Every time I ate, drank, walked across the street or cooked in the kitchen.
Um, neither of those links, either of which I would accept as reasonable, contain the number you're claiming. I hope you're right, and it's only about as deadly as flu, but it seems unlikely.
I didn't finish reading all that you wrote, but from what I read, I love your attitude
@goaded I copied and pasted it, dude. Just scroll through to the portion near the bottom, where they talk about the infection fatality rate as opposed to the case fatality rate. Because asymptomic, and mildly symptomatic people, aren't counted as "cases"- which massively skewers the apparent mortality rate, and which is also the reason why every nation that's implemented a policy of mass testing, and attempted to test as many people as possible regardless of whether they've got symptoms or they're 'high risk' has a CFR of less than 1%.
I guess you mean this link, www.cebm.net/.../ which mentions Infection Fatality Rates, but it doesn't include the word extrapolating, as far as I can see. Or 0.15%. And the four instances of "symptomatic" didn't match your quote. Maybe something's wrong with my browser?
Just look at the mortality rates for COVID-19 in all of the nations who've tested more than 10% of their populations: the UAE (the first nation to have tested over 20% of their population, as of today), Bahrain, Iceland, Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg & Lithuania. Even in Bahrain, the 3rd most densely populated nations on earth, with a population density equivalent to that of the city of Boston, behind only Monaco and Singapore- they've now tested over 17.6% of their population, and reported 10,052 confirmed cases, of whom 5,419 have recovered and only 15 have died (giving it a CFR of 0.28%, excluding all those who haven't either recovered or died yet). The country with the worst CFR out of those seven nations, and the only one of them to have a CFR above 1%, is Malta (which also notoriously has one of the oldest populations in the world, and highest prevalences of serious underlying medical conditions in their general population)- there, they've now tested over 13% of their population, and confirmed 616 cases, with 510 recoveries and 7 deaths (the youngest of these being a 53yo doctor). And looking at Qatar's figures- where they've tested roughly 7% of their population, and almost a quarter of those they tested were confirmed as having the virus, making it the only place in the world we know of where COVID-19's even more endemic than it is in NY or NJ right now (with the exception of Tokyo, Ecuador and Mexico, where they've hidden the true scale of their outbreaks by electing to simply test fewer people for it). And in Qatar, they've got 50,914 confirmed cases, with 15,399 recoveries, and only 33 deaths. Translating to a CFR of only 0.21%.
@goaded From the section with the sub-heading 'Estimating COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates (IFR)'- "We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.34%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease, the proportion asymptomatic (and the demographics of those affected) means this IFR is likely an overestimate.In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has (*had, at the time- it's now the UAE) occurred, the IFR lies somewhere between 0.03% and 0.28%.Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.41%.*Data from COVID deaths in Gangelt, Germany, suggests an IFR of 0.37%. A random sample of 1,000 residents of Gangelt found that 14% were carrying antibodies (2% were detected cases), which led to the lowering of the IFR estimates."
That's a lot of text to admit that the links you cited don't support your assertion.
@goaded I said "around", not "exactly". And explained the methodology behind it (i, e, the fact that the estimated 'proportion asymptomic' has more than doubled since they last updated their study, a couple of days ago). And the significance of the 0.15% figure wasn't "THIS IS THE IFR FOR COVID-19"- it was the fact that 0.15% is the percentage of my adult life I've spent having my prolonged epileptic seizure episodes, which strike without warning. And thus, 0.15% is my minimum personal risk of death at any and all times, whenever I do practically anything.
Well, you literally said: "The infection fatality rate for COVID-19's estimated to be only around 0.15%.", which is what I was questioning, apparently correctly.Also, you are comparing completely different things. Just because they've got a % sign after them doesn't make them comparable.If you want to make them comparable, you'd probably have to look at them in terms of Micromorts or Microlives, or something.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromorthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microlife
@goaded "Which I was questioning, apparently correctly"? Can you not get it through your thick head that 0.15% falls within the "presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.41%"? Or are you trying to claim that 0.15% is somehow LESS than 0.1%? Are you really that bad at simple mathematics?
I can do maths and logic! You stated a precise figure, not a range, and I wondered where it came from, that's all.The logic part is that they're completely unrelated measurements; 0.15% is also the percentage of gamers that buy half of in-game purchaces and the failure rate of a vasectomy.Anyway, best of luck managing your condition.
The flu doesn't even kill as many as Covid-19 has in a matter of days, weeks, and months. It's not the damn flu.
@PaganWarrior The stats are manipulated and you're all being fooled.
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HahaJust eat some citrus
... No thanks. That's a load of bollox.
Yes😊😊😊If it doesn't produce instant result it must be an illusion
''It's made my anxiety worse, I'm stressed, and I just can't seem to switch off most the time''Then you are lowering your immune system potentially placing you at increased risk...
Not passed, introduced in the House, which means next to nothing, and the amounts are far lower than given to corporations so far.www.congress.gov/.../actions
Generally people die from the virus because their immune systems over react (cytokine storm). If you provide the immune systems with modulators, vitamin D3 (and K2) is one of them... then it no longer over reacts to the virus and the person is more likely to live.
@Truthatanycost Quick, tell the CDC!
Im a nurse myself and yeah it "helps" but no that is not a "cure". Just like any vitamins its good for your body but its not going to prevent you from getting sick or heal you
Who said anything about a cure? Vitamin D3 (which is really a hormone), can reduce the risk of respiratory infection by up to 50%, and they keep on seeing a statistically significant link between covid death and low vitamin D3 blood levels.''Just like any vitamins its good for your body but its not going to prevent you from getting sick or heal you ''Indeed, only our immune system does that. Vitamins, hormones, minerals and other elements are what it uses to help it do it's job.
I know you don't have to explain it to me. As I said, I studied for it ;). But the way you are saying it implies as if you take medicin with vitamins your risk will be lower. And that is not true
NHS has now stated that A-symptomatic people are rare, so it's not likely that a lot of us will carry it without knowing.
@PaganWarrior Inmy country the A symptomatic are the ones who are the majority of infected people where i live. so now people are afraid for that so the less we go out the better even if some business are re-opned. I mean i was thinking the other day. People in all the world are wasting our life, and times flies fast. we are wasting our lives but not doing things that it canm be enjoyaable cause when we die we could not do things we would had liked and due to this virus we never did it. I mean travel is to enjoy life, meet new people, places, cultures, that is part of life to do as life there is only ONE, and with this virus we are wasting those precious time of our lives as we can't do many things that we can enjoy so we are wasting life and noone is getting any younger. Elder people are the ones who possible are more depressed or sad cause being stucked at home is not enjoyling life is wasting precious life, cause they can't go outside to mingle with family , or travel to enjoy life, we are all wasting precious life due to this virus, cause being stuck at home is not enjoy life, eve if we are alive,.
... This virus isn't going to stick around until we die of old age. You'll still get to live your life when it's gone. But the more people don't follow the rules, the longer it'll take for it to go. It will go, though.
I'm 32 and been stuck inside for 10+ years due to being mentally ill, and I'm fine. Yes, I know others are different and I am wasting my life too, but it's not by choice. I'm just a natural nervous person who is struggling to get better.
@PaganWarrior I know this virus won't stick until we die but so far no cure and we dont know until when. I also know if people dont follow rules this will take longer. But poor the elder people who are stuck at home and can't do anything, they can go outside they can't mingle with their love ones, they are at riks population and they are not getting any younger to enjoy life like other younger people. I mean Im unemployed now so far no job, Im young sure, butu I want to enjoy my life traveling meet people places that is to live also and also I want to see my family my friends mingel with them having get togethers that is also life and stay at home watching TV the whole time is not healthy either. Even love had been affected or sex, for many people and that is wasting life for them. (This is nto my case though I have no boyfriend or married im single and Im not seeing anyone either)=
The elderly that I know have said they're not worried because they've lived their lives. There have been epidemics in their times that have been and gone, so this will pass and then you can go back to your traveling and whatever you want to do. I'm scared, but I could die tonight of natural causes, so I shouldn't worry too much about all of it but I know we can't help it. Only human. I'd much rather be stuck indoors safe, than risking it outside with a virus on the rampage. Life will continue by 2021 if it keeps getting better so don't worry. Not too long. It could be worse, we could be stuck in for 5 years... but that isn't going to happen. The virus has to be starved of hosts so it can die out.
i'm not bullshitting. here's proof that i was never scared I know that is probably the millionth take but here is "The actual problem with Corona virus". ↗
You’re dumb 🤦♂️
@CrazyRay43 I don't give a rats ass about your estimations of how smart I am.
... which is a typical response from know-nothing conspiracy theorists 🙄
@CrazyRay43 well you're not exactly making yourself look like a smartass just throwing insults around. Did you ever someone changing their opinion cause someone told them that they are dumb? Your communication style doesn't exactly entice me to engage with you or consider your point of view which you didn't even share. So if you just wanna insult people, how about you fuck off. If you have anything of value to contribute, you're welcome to comment.
Did you ever hear of*
All you’re doing is repeating stupidity and I’m not going to take the time to try to explain it to you because I’ve already tried this on Facebook on my local news posts and they don’t understand either
@CrazyRay43 ok... Too bad. I thought have anything of value to offer but instead you continue to be a douchebag. So get the fuck out of my face.
Can't claim I didn't give you a chance.
Suicide deaths have absolutely *not* surpassed COVID deaths; there were only 10,000 suicides attributed to the Bush recession, across all of North America and Europe, combined.
@goaded Why caompar to that recession when this has nothign to do with that? This is much worse, we saw suicide skyrocket during the great depression of the 30s and this is closer to that. nypost.com/.../www.detroitnews.com/.../abc7news.com/.../There's many more reports like those.
1. New York Post, "California doctor claims... did not give figures to back the claims"2. "An increase in depression, anxiety and suicides *could* follow... predicted a 32% spike in suicides..."3. The third link is the same story as the first.Unless more than 100,000 extra people committed suicide so far this year, you're wrong. A normal year sees 45,000 suicides in the US.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States
Economies just recover. Hiroshima and Nagasaki after literally being nuked were back on their original growth track within 15 years. Germany, Japan and other European states, all of which were just utterly destroyed by the Second World War, were on their original growth track within 15-20 years as well.And take in account that both of those were far more damaging to an economy than a 7% contraction and 20% unemployment rate
@tartaarsaus Do you know what the unemployment rate was during the great depression? It peaked at just under 25%, that was the peak, most of the time it was lower, we probably haven't peaked and we don't know the full number as unemployment offices have been way behind. Economies don't just recover, not form something like this, there are long term effects, We have seen many small businesses die, they will never be back , and in the process large corporations move closer to monopoly in their place. People lose their life savings and so will probably be screwed when it comes to retirement. There is also the loss of civil liberties, people call this the new normal, if that means no more large gatherings in public ever, they have pulled the first amendment right from under us under the guise of safety. So when people say listen to the experts, that should include economic experts, and not all the health experts agree and their projections change daily.
Most economic experts say listen to the epidemiologists; GDP is of no use to a dead person.
@Scarecrow13Yes, I’m quite familiar with it. Sure, firms will cease to exist, but economic recovery will be just fine. And by the way, many economists say basically prematurely lifting harsh regulations is worse for the economy overall, per UChicago poll
The evidence just suggests that recovery can be swift when things return to normalcy, such as post-war Japan and Europe
also most of those cities are blue / demarcate.
It's all old people
mostly the elder or people with weaker immune systems in general. since kids don't play outside much to build up one anymore.
Plus, even younger people than 70 may often not die. But there are reports it causes organ damage and other significant problems
FEAR the numbersLet those week old men control you
I’m perfectly fine with needing to stay inside and things being closed down, along with the economic damage, in exchange for lives, not a completely overwhelmed healthcare system and more economic damage
I know right, I really cool hard to this memewww.instagram.com/.../?igshid=nkk2xsb620c1
I relate to this meme so hard*
They're going to die sometime. As we will all.
@dc-refugee So just because we'll die one day we're supposed to let some Virus take us out early? hell no. I am not leaving this planet until It's of old age and natural causes. If I can help it.
@PaganWarrior In 3 more months, COVID will be dropped from the constant 24-7 news feed and your emotions and fears will be in the grip of the next mainstream media driven crisis. COVID is like a really, really bad flu season. THis has all happened before. We did not tank 45 million jobs and try to quarantine billions of people for SARS for example. This whole thing was some kind of exercise of mainstream media and government power. And the people failed, big time.
Amen, the father is just doing spring cleaning, the mother liked it but they are fighting, old thought patterns die off in situations like that
you're happy to sacrifice your parents and grandparents on the alter of the economy? I get it, americans wave the right to own guns, but at no point offer the right to life or health
God is just doing spring cleaning
The mother and the father are fighting, good and bad happened on both sides
so at the KKK riots there was good people on both sides?Things can be done to reduce the death toll. Not doing them is just selfish and self absorbed. Good for you, you just identified yourself.
shitting on the rest of society is so easy once you have enjoyed all the benefits of being in that society.
None of them "want" anything, few of them kill significant numbers, because dead people tend not to infect other people, on account of not getting around much.
Like the prediction of 15 or zero deaths? Or the prediction of 60,000 deaths?No, the curve looks headed down because New York and New Jersey have got it under control, going from 1500 deaths a day to 150; most of the rest of the states have not.www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/(Skip down to "Daily New Deaths".)
Gloves aren't allowed -_- causes cross decontamination. Those who work in hospitals etc are only allowed to wear gloves.
Smoke cannabis 😎🤙🏼
It's not a hoax, it is a failed mission to thin the population
Take a look at some international report, it's all old people
"Fauci admitted that this was no more dangerous than the cold and flu"When?
Ah, so you’re the type of jackass who doesn’t care about anyone else’s health, huh?
@CrazyRay43 I still self-isolate, jackass, for the sake of others, not me!
What do you mean with "deadly virus" have you watched any news? Hundreds of people are dying and here you are talking like that... please have some respect for the people who died, are dying, their families, nurses, doctors.. and anyone else who still has to work and keep this world going!
You do realize that most of the deaths and cases are presumed and that dr fauci literally admitted that this is no more dangerous than the cold and flu...
@bignoyroy1234 You do realize that you're grossly misinformed? The whole comparison with the flu has been debunked over and over again. Stop watching right-wing propaganda, you moron.