(1)You're comparing deaths to active cases. Many of these will recover, but many will also die. Even so, it is a death rate of 3.69%. Let's assume it only infects 1% of the world population, as opposed to 1/3 with the influenza. This would result in 2'583'000 deaths. Plus many deaths unrelated to the Commu-virus, but caused by a lower quality of care towards other people. So being hysteric is obviously not advisable, but blowing it off is what will make it worse than it needs to be and will make many people hysteric, feeling that they are alone to solve the problem. This is where more stockpiling comes into play. (2)My opinion is that, despite China, an authoritarian government, being the one who fucked up, in the West we will see the government attempt to use this situation to increase its powers. Instead of actually using its already existing powers to solve the problem and let everyone remember 2020 for some rap songs or something.
@Naydyonov First, the expectation is that as cases are revealed the mortality rate will decline to about 1%. Above the regular flu, but hardly enough to cause this hysteria.Indeed, how many people have died from the regular flu this season? 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.So let's keep some perspective.As to China, it is a banana republic tarted up as a modern state. That was always true but has now been made manifest - albeit a banana republic with modern armed forces and nuclear weapons.In the flush of victory in WWII and the Cold War the West in general - and the US in particular - took the oddly quasi-Marxist view that a free market economy and free trade would conduce to a free country and a free world. It turning out that it does not but the notion that this is the harbinger of tyranny is absurd.We have a supine government - see also the national debt. It can scarcely resist anything the public wants and dares not ask the public to pay for it. That is older and more deeply rooted in the culture than this episode and will not likely change.
China's death rate is 3.92%. So I think 1% is a good estimate for countries like Canada, the US, Singapore, Japan, South Korea. Not for most of the world's countries. I do believe that chances are that you have a ton more people infected than actually reported, but they don't get sick enough to notice. But as far as I know it's been confirmed that people can infect others while being asymptomatic. So the result would be more people infected, more deaths among the elderly. The flu has a really low hospitalization rate. That's the principal difference. Commie-virus has a ~15% rate. I don't think you can say that it doesn't make a difference.
@Naydyonov Not saying that it makes no difference. What I am saying in that a mature and sober minded people do not go into hair pulling fits of panic over it.Every news program that breathlessly reports that some woman in some town in Iowa got the virus!! Oh NO!! Who saw THAT coming? (He said sarcastically.)Every politician from the local dog catcher to the President holding a news conference EVERY day to tell the public to wash their hands.The interviews with people confined to their homes as if they were hostages in a kidnapping. The reporters asking, lips a quiver, how the interviewee is holding up in the terror that is their living rooms.Seriously, this is the people who won two world wars? Really?Good grief. Time for the culture to get some perspective and - most of all - grow up!!
You have to remember that most of today's young people in the West have literally never experienced any instability. 2008? Well most of us were kids or very young adults. So the Commie-Virus is the first real event which has the potential to affect our lives, at least in the short term. Regarding media: they're just assholes. At first all they did was say "it is the flu", "the flu is worse", "China is doing fantastic", "we should learn from China". Which is fine. If that's the position they wish to take, then okay. But then now we see: "We're all going to die", "a bad economy will get rid of Trump". But the China ass-licking hasn't gone anywhere. I think the appropriate response would have been: "The flu is worse, but don't ignore the WuFlu. Wash your hands, sneeze into your arm, and if you have been in contact with people from Hubei, be more cautious". Done. No panic, but no blowing it off. Going from extreme to extreme is idiotic. I think you and I agree in general. The reason why I'm upset with this whole situation is the fact that nobody took it seriously when it was easiest to stop. My mom's retirement funds have fallen by 15 or so percent. For what? For the fact that an authoritarian government decided not to confront the problem and for the fact that the West decided closing or restricting travel is racist, meaning it takes greater priority than ending the problem as soon and cleanly as possible.
@Naydyonov Two points.1) The young people are a problem. However, it is as much the old people who are acting as if they were young people that is the problem. It is a culture of terminal adolescence.2) As to the media, they are captured by the sensational. See also the sinking of USS Maine that forced a reluctant President McKinley to ask Congress for war against Spain. This is not new - see also "Yellow Journalism." The problem is a people so sophisticated that they cannot be bothered to think and react to visual stimulus with an almost Pavlovian reflex. (See also the Covington high school boy as different - but similar - phenomenon.)Finally, to throw in as an aside. Some problems don't have solutions. Rather they are just difficulties that musty be managed as best they can be. It is not likely the US could have hermetically sealed itself off - and in any case, Mr. Trump did shut down travel as soon as he was aware of the problem. (I say this as a Republican who is no fan of Mr. Trump.)Bottom line, you can manage germs, but you can control your own conduct. We have done the former as well as can be expected in an imperfect world of imperfect beings. However, it is an obscenity that we have not nurtured the virtues that allow us to do the latter. The former is the limits of knowledge and science. The latter an utter lack of character.
I see your point. Yes, Trump do so. And it did help limit the spread for around a month. Italy and the EU is a good example of what happens when no travel measures are taken.
@Naydyonov Well, on that last point. The EU prizes its open borders and was willing to see Brexit rather than even slightly compromise on the issue. So that is no surprise. Besides, for those soi-dissant conservatives who are ardent free marketers and thus free traders, they are now seeing the downside of their quasi-Marxist emphasis on economics. Had anyone bothered to read their Adam Smith or David Ricardo, free trade includes the free movement of labor and consumers and the specialization of each nation in what it is best at producing most cheaply. Thus, as the US becomes a more high-tech/service based economy, China focused more on manufacturing - including the production of many of the medicines that the US buys.So now all and sundry are careening in horror that China produces medicines the US has decided it must have as an essential matter of national security. Ditto that Italy was lax in the control of its borders - as the good free marketers the EU is supposed to be - and thus let in a disease through the back door.Suffice to say, amidst the panic, this - and in this BOTH Trump and Sanders have acted as a sort of John the Baptist for a new economic orthodoxy - means the end of the Reagan era that even Clinton and Obama could not break. The days of faith in free markets as an end in themselves is coming.There is an old saying, "Be careful what you wish for - you may get it." So it seems.
P. S. Type-o:This sentence - " The days of faith in free markets as an end in themselves is coming."Should read - " The days of faith in free markets as an end in themselves is coming TO AN END."
Yeah, I suppose. Personally I am a free market guy, but I do think national policy should guide it. Meaning, if having all medicines made in China is a threat to the American people (their health), then it is reasonable to implement solutions that would allow for more in-land production. Economics cannot exist on its own, same as politics without economics is just a yelling contest.
@Naydyonov Well, the problem with American conservatives - who are actually classical liberals leavened by a bit of Protestant social traditionalism - is that they were not prepared to live with the practical implications of their thinking. It became - it did not start that way - an ideology designed to spare them the torture of having to actually think.In any case, I share in general your preference for free market economics. However, it is not an end in itself, but is rather a means to the end of a social order that points to virtue. Not for nothing did Burke, the father of classical conservatism, say, "The effect of liberty to individuals is that they may do as they please. WE OUGHT SEE WHAT IT WILL PLEASE THEM TO DO BEFORE WE RISK CONGRATULATIONS."
Interesting thought. I will look into it soon. Good discussion my man.
@Naydyonov Thanks and right back at ya.By the way, I might recommend the book "Statecraft as Soulcraft" by George F. Will. Ironically, Will has walked away from some of it, but it really impacted me and, if nothing else, it will give you a sense of the true pedigree of political ideas. It is a short book - taken from Will's Godkin lecture - but not an easy read. Still, I highly recommend it.
Thanks. I will order it. If we don't forget, I will share my thoughts on the book at some point. :)
@Naydyonov Great!! Love to hear what you think.
Ordered. I think I'll enjoy it. It seems like my type of literature
@Naydyonov Wow!! Well, I don't think it will disappoint. It was a starting point for me that led me to read Aristotle, Edmund Burke and others and helped me to understand classical conservatism and how it differs from its American conservatism. I do hope you find it as fascinating as I did.
Well I definitely didn't expect to be getting book recommendations today :DI see you're very enthusiastic about the book haha
@Naydyonov Yes, I'll stop now, though. It is just that I read that book when it come out in 1983. To that time my views had been pretty conventionally American conservative Republican. Will is a Ph. D. in political philosophy - from Oxford no less - and the book was so different from anything I had read to that time that it turned me into the nagging classical conservative who keeps responding to you with new books to read.So that's it!! I'll stop! Right now!!! Honest!! Really. No, I really really mean it...
ahahaha. I totally understand. It has an emotional element to you as well. Now I'm either way busy learning math (+the book will only arrive in 2-4 weeks), so it'll still be some time until I read it. But it shall happen.
Make that 3 NBA players now.
Damn. I know patient zero for the NBA ballers was supposedly in contact with 38 people in the past 4 days. My professor also said that a threshold needs to hit in which people get infected to the point that there is temporary immunity.I'm not too worried about them though since they're in top physical shape.
Yep. All the past 5 teams he's played against are under self quarantine to see anybody shows symptoms. I bet sooner or later another NBA player will test positive. All of the Utah Jazz reporters are getting tested too.
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before it starts getting better*
Or the Commu-virus. Maybe if you like Commie-Virus more.
Ebola is a river in Zaire. Zika is a forest in Uganda. Also, Spanish flu, German measles, West Nile Virus, etc...Stop spreading this CCP propaganda.
They have medicine to Corona virus I think
It's been increased to 28 days
Wrong vote I think the virus will get better not worse. But we might not react better