# What do you think will be the total death rate of COVID19?

A lot of people are calculating the death rate by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases, but that's inaccurate because a lot of those people haven't died yet, but will die. It's more accurate to look only at closed cases - cases in which people either recovered, or died.

The last time I mentioned this (17 days ago), the percentage of closed cases that ended in death was 9%. I have checked daily since then, and the percentage has continued to increase each day - now the percentage is 21%.

I expect the percentage to eventually decrease as more people recover, but I would still estimate the death rate to be at least 5%.

COVID19 is a lot like SARS. In fact, its official name is SARS-COV-2, because it is so similar that early diagnostic tests said that the virus was SARS. SARS infected a total of 8,098 people, causing 774 deaths. That's a death rate of 9.5%.

I estimate that COVID19 will have a similar mortality rate as SARS, except it has already ended up killing a lot more people (currently 59,201) because there are so many more cases - currently 1,118,045.

Before someone says that the death rates are skewed because some milder cases are unreported: by that logic, death rates for most other illnesses/conditions are also invalid, because most diseases have unreported cases.

I don't think COVID19 really exists
Vote A
I have no idea what the death rate will be
Vote B
I think the death rate will be below 0.5%
Vote C
I think the death rate will be between 0.5% and 1%
Vote D
I think the death rate will be between 1% and 3%
Vote E
I think the death rate will be between 3% and 5%
Vote F
I think the death rate will be more than 5%
Vote G
Select age and gender to cast your vote:
GirlGuy
What do you think will be the total death rate of COVID19?
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