Did those expensive bombs actually even work?

[msc545]

Maybe not:

"The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that it had not detected any increase in radiation levels at key nuclear sites in Iran following US airstrikes.

“Following attacks on three nuclear sites in Iran… the IAEA can confirm that no increase in off-site radiation levels has been reported as of this time,” the nuclear watchdog posts on X, just hours after US President Donald Trump said the strikes had “totally obliterated” Iran’s main nuclear sites at Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz."

Updates

11 mo

The IAEA's statement that no increase in radiation levels was detected at key nuclear sites in Iran does not necessarily mean the attacks failed, but it strongly suggests that those sites were either not targeted or not hit or the bombs did not penetrate deeply enough.

The typical MAGA responses of "the UN is lying" or "you are wrong" or "the government doesn't lie" are worthless. Try to post something intelligent despite your politics.

Updates

11 mo

Try reading this for more information:

www.theguardian.com/.../how-effective-was-the-us-attack-on-irans-nuclear-sites-a-visual-guide

[Chazmatazz269]

Bombing a site that is designed to develop nuclear ordnances shouldn’t result in radiation leakage. Even destroying an actual nuclear weapon shouldn’t yield such results unless it was already in an engaged condition. However, not every organization building weapons of mass destruction is doing so according to the strictest guidelines. So they have to examine the full extent of the damage in order to understand what effects they may have had on the region surrounding the targeted sites. The results of the first look only suggest that there were no unintended consequences. Whether or not there were ordnances on site and whether or not they were effectively destroyed cannot be known at this time, from outside observation. If they do know for certain, they can’t say because that would divulge that there are spies in the target organizations. Thereby putting useful assets at risk.

[lightbulb27]

I don't trust what I hear, I doubt it.

Learned that watching lots of war movies. They shelled the crap out of normandy beaches... didn't help. Iran is firing missiles all over, doesn't mean they do much damage. they can shell and bomb all they want, doesn't mean it's effective... or that the materials they wanted to blow up were there.

I think I'll go swat a hornets nest and see what happens. they've got it coming. what could go wrong?

[Anonymous]

It wasn't a nuclear bomb that the US used and it wasn't a site meltdown. It was heavy payloads that buried their sites. There would be small traces, at best, of radiation in the immediate area. Also, I believe the UN about as much as I believe the WHO.

[msc545]

Well, if you don't want to believe the obvious, then you can always just assert that the people who said what you don't like are simply lying. Then the burden of proof falls upon you to prove they are lying and of course you have no proof. You just don't like the results.

[Opinion Owner]

What obvious am I not accepting? Also, you're the one questioning the effectiveness of the bombs, because there wasn't radiation in the air. I said that doesn't mean the bombs weren't effective! The burden falls on you.

[purplepoppy]

Doesn't make any difference. Russia has already said countries are queuing up to sell Iran nukes. I really can't see this ending well and a lot of innocent Americans are gonna pay the price

[goaded]

Attack the US with plausible deniability? Who wouldn't love that?

[Anonymous]

They did what they were supposed to do, please Israel while inching us closer to another Iraq. If Israel wants Iran bombed, they'll get bombed as most politicians in both parties are owned by Israel and do their bidding. Trump proved during his first term he wasn't anti when he bombed Syria, worst part at the time, Democrats praised him for being presidential. I will be contacting Thomas Massie and house/Senate members who spoke out against Trump bombing Iran, urging them to impeach Trump for bombing Iran without a declaration of war from Congress.

[msc545]

Yeah good luck with that. Nobody is going to impeach Trump. They're too afraid of him.

[Opinion Owner]

They're not afraid of Trump, they're afraid of going against Israel who owns our government.

[Anonymous]

Okay so, I think we should investigate this further and wait for more information at this time. Any shred of doubt should be taken with total open mindfulness and caution.

I would like to mention, Iran has 6 Nuclear Facilities in total and Trump struck only 3.

That kinda got me doubtful about The Administration’s efforts to begin with, now given this new allegation alleging Donald J Trump’s leadership role in this didn’t actually triumphantly destroy the 3 facilities with great ease I had to share that piece.

I would wait on more information. I wouldn’t jump to conclusions, though I do believe currently that a strike of ‘some sort’ occurred on Iranian soil however not so sure as to the exact aspects at this time given this new insight. Again, let’s wait for more information and pray at this time.

[Opinion Owner]

Over 8 other nuclear facilities not including the 3 striked.

[NathanDavis]

this is something I was commenting with someone before...

specific to that underground "building"

you don't really need to blow up the bunker, and you definitely don't need to cause a radioactive crisis either and ideally, you avoid exactly that

you only have to disable the tunnels that lead to the underground facilities at two different points, and those facilities will be buried for a long long time, if not forever, and that's a success... we all know Trump speaks nonsense, but the real mission was surely accomplished

[msc545]

I doubt it was accomplished. Any attack like this on a site dedicated to enriching uranium should result in residual radiation, and these did not.

[NathanDavis]

think of it... as a kitchen, an oven, if you will...

the idea was to go after the oven, and the centrifuges, the stoves... not after the pie, or the dough

also, you don't really store your ingredients inside the oven... for that, you have different spaces for storage

[NathanDavis]

also... the goal was most likely, to block the access to the kitchen, and not to blow up the kitchen...

[msc545]

I understand what you're suggesting. I guess that's possible, although I'm not sure that that kind of precision is possible with the weaponry and targeting systems that we have now. I really don't know however, and what you suggest may be absolutely what happened. I don't think we will ever know for sure. ..

[NathanDavis]

it's not that complicated, it is very simple...

a tunnel that goes 100meters underground has only limited ways to be built... if you collapse them, which is not difficult at all... then it becomes a 100 meter prison

[msc545]

Right. However, you can break into a prison.

[NathanDavis]

which is exactly... the idea

because then, you only have to send one cheap drone... to get the guys with the picks and the shovels... trying to break into a buried prison

[msc545]

Truth.

[ProbablyClueless]

I guess we’ll see, but it’s very possible to disable a nuclear facility without spewing radioactive material everywhere

[msc545]

You would not necessarily spew a lot of it, but this is a site dedicated to enriching uranium to a "bomb-grade" level with the use of high speed centrifuges, and therefore anything (like a penetrating bomb) that damaged centrifuges and/or storage facilities for enriched uranium would logically result in increased background radiation - and these attacks apparently did not.

The bombs may have missed, or not dug deep enough before exploding, or perhaps the equipment was too well-shielded. It is not like the government would tell us if this attack failed.

[ProbablyClueless]

As always, I appreciate hearing your thoughts! You're raising some good questions. The only thing we can be certain of is that the government wouldn't give us the full story.

[msc545]

Thank you, as always, for your polite and well-reasoned response.

I think that the only reason Iran started doing this nuclear research in the first place (since it is both technically difficult and expensive} is because the US has a history of invading countries where they dislike the economic or political systems (like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya among many others), and absolutely NOT invading countries that have nuclear weapons (like North Korea, China, etc).

I believe that Iran is developing nuclear weapons for the specific purpose of discouraging invasions by the US and/or by Israel, although the Israelis are so reckless that it might not matter to them. I doubt that Iran has aspirations to become a global power.

[msc545]

I think we get what we have now. You cannot reliably do a bomb damage assessment on a facility that is mostly underground unless you are literally there, which is of course impossible in this case. My thought is that Trump will continue to assert that lots of damage was done when, in fact, it probably was not. In addition to what I said previously, it seems likely that the Iranians moved a lot if not all, of their equipment and material out of these sites prior to the bombing, thanks to the last few weeks of Trump's posturing and threats.

[Sevenpointfive]

i think the reality of it is is that israel wants the other half of the continent. we can't have arabs in israel. so they are displaced to a volcano?

[Sevenpointfive]

*false flag event it never happened unless media finds out and we have to s

[Anonymous]

Awkward.

Wouldn't be the first time the orange inflatable had proclaimed victory over nothing.

My fav is still congratsing the national guard on a job well done more than 12 hours before they ever arrived in ca. - Thanks LAPD...

[Fireguy17]

They took out the infrastructure to do the processing and manufacturing, and buried the actual materials under all of the rubble.
It will take a long time before they can rebuild, and if they do that while Trump is still president he will just do it again.

[msc545]

@Fireguy17 That is very optimistic and probably not accurate.

[Ariesman81]

I think it's entirely possible to bury the uranium without exposing it.

[msc545]

What sort of explosion do you think would bury it as opposed to dispersing it or doing both? That sort of defies the laws of physics doesn't it?

[msc545]

Yes, but not completely probably. It would still result in an increase in background radiation.

[Anonymous]

The UN on the site already. One thing is clear that going by how Iran has been attacking the US for years and now Israel we can't allow them nukes.

[msc545]

Iran hasn't been attacking the US except in the press. The Arab culture is prone to excited. Rhetoric which usually doesn't mean a hell of a lot of anything.

[Opinion Owner]

Iran and its proxies have conducted more than 180 attacks against U. S. forces in the Middle East between October 17, 2023, and November 19, 2024, resulting in more than 180 wounded and three killed U. S. service members.

[msc545]

That's nice that you have some statistics. How about the linking the source of those statistics instead of just quoting them as if they were your own opinion?

[Sal_Monella]

I think they did. Even if Iran hid the enriched uranium, is capacity to make more was disabled.

[msc545]

How do you know that anything was disabled, or is that just wishful thinking?

[Sal_Monella]

Informed Presumption.

[msc545]

So you don't know. Neither do I , but I Do know that uranium is enriched using centrifuges, and Iran still has those.