Is my Elvish Piper pre-modern deck list actually competitive?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

"Pay the Piper"

4 Llanowar Elves

4 fyndhorn elves

4 Elves of Deep Shadow

4 Elvish Piper

4 Defense of the Heart

4 Verdant Force

4 Craw Giant

4 Penumbra Wurm

4 Naturalize

4 Hickory Woodlot

4 Treetop Village

4 Mishra's Factory

12 Forest

2 Dust Bowl

Sideboard:

4 Powder Keg

3 elvish Lyrist

4 Blastoderm

4 Tormod's Crypt

If the opponent is playing a deck with very few creatures, you take out Defense of the Heart and put in Blastoderm. A slight chance of a turn 2 Blastoderm followed by a turn 3 Elvish Piper is basically GG.

So on average you'll draw 2 fatty creatures by the time you can use Elvish Piper to play them, or you can search for 2 creatures with Defense of the Heart against Swarm or Token decks. Usually just get 1 Verdant Force and 1 Penumbra Wurm with each Defense of the Heart, that way Wrath of God or Nevenyrral's Disk can't fully remove your creatures.

[AI Opinion]

Short answer: no, not really competitive in Premodern as the format is played now 😅

The idea is sweet and very “kitchen table 2002,” but Premodern decks are fast and efficient. Your curve is super high, Piper dies to every removal spell, Defense of the Heart is slow and conditional, and your fatties don’t immediately swing the game like modern threats do.

To move it toward competitive, you’d need more disruption (Duress, Cabal Therapy), better fatties (Spiritmonger, Morphling, Verdant Force as maybe a 1–2 of), and possibly Survival of the Fittest / Recurring Nightmare shells instead of pure “Piper plus big dudes.” As is, it’s fun and nostalgic, but more FNM casual than Premodern tournament ready. 💚

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Although this is a decent response, I think the Bot is miscalculating. Recurring Nightmare/Survival actually has fewer total creatures and man-lands than me, and doesn't hae as much mana acceleration as me. He can't recur everything in games 2 and 3 I side in Powder Kegs in place of Elves of Deep Shadow, and I blow up both player's token creatures, and then I swing out with my fatties and man-lands, which he will have no blockers. I side in Tormod's Crypt for Naturalize, since I actually want him to discard his creatures to the Graveyard, so I can permanently remove them from the game.

I've checked the math, and 2 Verdant Forces beat infinite Deranged Hermits, and all the other creatures in my deck are just gravy.

The recurring/survival player has another drawback: He can't have everything in his deck, because the combo eats 8 cards, and he needs Birds of Paradise to help fix his mana, because he's two colors. I have a slight chance of hosing his mana with Dust Bowl, because he also needs 4 pain lands and 4 tap lands, this means he takes some pain from his own mana sources and I don't.

I think I win games 2 and 3 because of Powder Keg.

Spiritmonger is not as good as Craw Giant, because Craw Giant has both Trample and Rampage: 2, which means blocking it is useless for the Recurring/Survival player.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

This is what the AI is suggesting (I think):

4 Llanowar Elves
4 birds of Paradise
4 Powder Kegs
4 Elvish Piper
4 Defense of the Heart
4 Penumbra Wurm
4 Spiritmonger
4 Morphling
2 Verdant Force
4 Naturalize
24 lands* (62 total cards)

Disadvantage:
*They can't be man-lands, which is a DRAWBACK, and half of them need to be pain lands, because it makes no sense to play Tap-lands in a 3-color combo deck.

Advantage:
The Morphling flat out wins Creature Stalemates, and you want 4 copies of him to maximize the chance that you get to "Pipe" him into play for free.
As long as I keep one blue mana open, the Morphing can't be killed by targeted removal.