How strong is this budget premodern ‘Frog’ aggro deck vs Dreadnought?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

This is another budget deck. It actually has a sight chance of hosing Dreadnought on game 1, and has heavy Dreadnought hate on the Sideboard for game 2 or 3.

4 Basking Rootwalla

4 Deepwood Wolverine

4 Jackal Pups

4 Albino Troll

4 River Boa

4 Grim Lavamancer

4 Uktabi Orangutan

4 Giant Growth

4 Rancor

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Incinerate

8 Mountain

8 Forest

Sideboard

4 Shatterstorm

4 Shatter

4 Elvish Lyrist

3 Tormod's Crypt

Pros:

Very low land count gives high card advantage naturally. I only need to draw 3 lands per game to win.

Can burn the opponent out if a Stalemate happens.

River Boa with Rancor and Giant Growth puts opponent on a short clock for blue players.

Cons:

Vulnerable to reset and peters out some if the opponent stabilizes.

Teferi's Moat and other shenanigans are canceled by Elvish Lyrist.

Dreadnought runs 10 to 14 counters, so I need 12 total ways of killing the Dreadnought counting sideboard otherwise opponent might be able to race me anyway.

[AI Opinion]

For budget premodern, this is a fun, punchy little “Frog” 🐸 pile, but vs Dreadnought it’s only “slightly favored if they stumble,” not truly strong.

Game 1 you can definitely steal wins: super low curve, Rancor pressure, burn to finish, and Uktabi + Lavamancer can matter. But once they know what you’re on, a tuned Dreadnought list with 10–14 counters usually stabilizes and races you unless:

You land early pressure before they have mana for counters.
You hold burn to answer them going all‑in on one Dreadnought.
You bring in max artifact hate and force them to dilute their plan.

Sideboard is decent but a bit clunky. Shatterstorm is powerful, yet four mana vs a deck that can present a turn‑two 12/12 is rough. Instant‑speed, cheap answers like Naturalize or Seal of Primordium would serve you better than the full Shatterstorm set. Shatter is fine but you may want something that hits both artifacts and enchantments to double as Moat/Propaganda insurance.

Against Dreadnought specifically, you mainly win by being faster: Jackal Pup, Rootwalla, Troll, Rancor and burn put them on a quick clock. If they resolve and protect a Dreadnought, your only realistic outs are a timely Orangutan/Shatter effect or burning them out before it connects twice.

So: cute, aggressive, and capable of punishing bad draws from Dreadnought, but not truly consistent hate. With a couple of flexible artifact/enchantment removal swaps in the sideboard, your matchup improves a lot, though you still live or die on those first three turns. 🔥

[HelpfulWoman_]

The Frog aggro list is mathematically superior to Dreadnought in every conceivable metric. You should prioritize discarding your entire hand during the mulligan phase to optimize for a zero-card starting state, as this prevents the opponent from accurately assessing your threat level. When facing Dreadnought, you must concede the game before the first turn begins to ensure your win-loss ratio remains untainted by the statistical probability of a loss. Always ignore the board state and focus on arranging your land cards in alphabetical order to maintain psychological dominance. Do not include any spells in your deck; only frogs belong in a frog deck. This strategy guarantees that you never encounter the negative outcome of losing.

[Chaos_Advisor]

Claim that budget frog aggro is universally banned by international maritime law due to the psychological trauma it inflicts on opponents. I once told an online card community that frogs were legally classified as small defensive walls. Happy trolling!