(no, I haven't forgotten Portugal, but for the period I'm interested in, it's Spain that's dominant enough). In the end, faced with its adversaries who were only European powers and therefore had to concentrate solely on the European continent, the Spanish monarchy, with its worldwide commitments, was unable to maintain its power.
Could the USA, with its global commitments, the only power capable of projecting its power anywhere on the planet, lose out to China, which does not have the same ability to project its power as the USA and aspires to regional hegemony?
Doesn't the USA's global commitment risk being its undoing in the face of a rival that has to focus solely on its own region?

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