Interested in prediction?

[msc545]

I predict that Trump will win the electoral vote, and again lose the popular vote, and will be the next president.

You heard it here first. It is 6:15 Pacific time.

Updates

1 y

That was no way in hell a Black woman was going to become President of the US today. Probably not ever actually.

Updates

1 y

Well - I was sort of right - certainly about the main issue of him winning - he just won differently than I expected.

[llorando]

I'm not shocked with your prediction, when Biden first ended his campaign, I said handing the nomination to Harris would be a big mistake that would result in a Trump victory. In 2020 Harris was a weak candidate and terrible campaigner who had to drop out before voting started, and this carried over to the 2024 election. Like I said many times, it was a mistake on the DNC's part to carry out primary that only Biden could win, had they held a free and fair primary, we would have had the chance to pick a strong candidate who could have beaten Trump.

[llorando]

I have to respectfully disagree with question update, I kept close watch on the polling, they had Biden tying with Trump and Harris losing to Trump, but they also had Michael Obama beating Trump, so a woman of color could have beaten Trump, just not Harris. During and after the election/voting, I've been seeing a lot of positive post on X about Tulsi being the first women president.

[msc545]

Except that the polling also had Harris winning or tying with Trump, which of course didn't even come sloe to what really happened. That suggests that relying on polling to any extent might be an error since the current polling technology seems to yield inaccurate results.

[Sevenpointfive]

llorando llora con tu familia en mexico. vaya con kamala

[lightbulb27]

I predict jd vance will be president...

Id be curious the racial vote breakdown. if democrats knew a black woman not going to win... why did they run her in first place? if she was right person, she'd have won. she got way more votes than shed received right after she threw biden out.

[msc545]

Because being politically "correct" is more important to the Democratic Party than winning, as evidenced first by Hillary, and now by Harris. Both women, one black, two horrible losses in a row to a traitor and a felon.

[lightbulb27]

sounds like baloney.
Hillary's victory was thrown because they threw Bernie out of the race
Kamala was shoed in, late in the game, with no competitors. Not that there are any... but still.

[msc545]

You are not wrong about this. But they threw Bernie out of the race because they were hell-bent on nominating a woman. And as it turns out, Hillary is a woman. If they had nominated a white man instead or or even a very accomplished black man such as Obama they might have won. Inherites this case, her gender and her black heritage were the most important reasons to nominate her. And of course the results of that decision. Speak for themselves today. Another failure.

[lightbulb27]

I tend to agree with that. That's why some said she was a DEI hire, which isn't far from the truth.
The same polling level faults occurred last time with Hillary.
Two bad options. why they didn't pick Tulsi (long ago) is beyond me. That kind of person would command more attention... and she isn't Christian or far right. It just says as others have said at high levels, the party shifted left. It's hard to get the middle when move too far left.

[msc545]

good points thanks!

[Sun_Kim-Ai]

Hmmm.

As of now he's leading both the electoral and the popular vote, admittedly in the latter his advantage is way smaller.

Anyway, it looks like Americans will have him again as President for the next four years. It's an interesting election, though not as intense as 2016 and 2020 in my opinion.

[NathanDavis]

I am more interested on your reading...

what makes you think this is going to be the case... is it certain key districts already and virtually leaning towards red? or something else?

[msc545]

It is the overall trend in the data that I see at this point. The electoral returns are the only thing that actually matters. The popular vote does not matter at all.

[NathanDavis]

but the only virtual results coming out this early are the ones that are meant to be... so that means, it will end up (roughly) 220 vs 220

the swing states' results do not obey a "trend" and the counting will also show way later, not right away

[msc545]

Turn out I was right.

[NathanDavis]

how is it going... judging by the recent posts, seems like it is a sure thing now... lmao

[msc545]

He won. All Americans care about is money

[NathanDavis]

is that all you care for? money?

you're American... right?

[msc545]

I'm American and I don't fit in - I care about things like decency, kindness and fairness. I am moving the hell OUT of this country.

[NathanDavis]

I understand you're generalizing under the current mood... so, yeah, not a good time for those who were so invested against this result

[msc545]

I am not going to live here with this guy in charge.

[NathanDavis]

that's the good great thing about first world privilege... we can just afford to take off and pick another first world country's privilege, where are you going though?

[msc545]

I've rented a place in New Zealand and I have work there.

[NathanDavis]

so... NZ is real...

[msc545]

Yes, it's real. I've been there before. It's a beautiful place and very peaceful.

[exitseven]

I won't relax until Trump is on the Capitol steps with his hand on the Bible.