
At the moment, Trump leads Harris in the national popular vote by 3.5 percent (51 to 47.5 percent). That margin is likely to decline given the historic tendency of late-counted mail and provisional ballots (particularly in California) to skew Democratic by a significant margin, a phenomenon called the “blue shift.” But even if Trump’s margin is shaved by a full percentage point (not a bad guess), the polls were off by 3 to 4 percent. According to a historical analysis from FiveThirtyEight, the average polling error in presidential elections from 1972 to 2020 has been 2.3 percent.
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