What are your thoughts about the statement the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour?

[Anonymous]

[Speaking_Frankly]

I agree with it. Best predictor doesn't mean it's a guarantee but it is a compelling indication. Marriage statistics show 2nd and 3rd marriages have higher rates of divorce compared to 1st marriages.
Cheaters have a tendency to continue doing it, especially when they've been forgiven a first or second time.
When people are transient in their relationships but appear to settle down, it's usually an indication that their options to be transient have diminished rather than actually wanting to commit to a single person for the long term.

[Shiprex]

Not necessarily the BEST predictor but a good predictor especially if it was a behaviour that could become addictive.

[Shiprex]

Thanks for the MHO @asker

[Asker]

Your welcome

[Effably]

That it is true but lethally misguided.

I have two short examples, one funny factual and one analogy.

The first is a simple fact. If you state that tomorrow's weather will be the same as today you are instantly the most accurate weather forecast in, very likely, the world. Of course anytime weather changes you will miss that. But you will be right more ofte than your local news.

The second is a small lesson in inductive and deductive reasoning. We need both.
There once was a farmer. The farmer had chickens. Our chicken of today is called Martha. Martha learned that when the farmer came, that meant food! So each time Martha saw the chicken she went cluck cluck and got up to get some seeds.
One day our inductive reasoning chicken clucks up as usual. The farmer is holding an axe that day. The farmer grabs Martha. Chops her head off and has chicken for dinner.

Martha assumed that the general rule, the past experience, was reliable. That is inductive reasoning. We all use it or we'd go insane. I assume my food will taste lile what I expect, that the rain will not melt my face off, that the people around me are who I think they are. So on. We need this.

Deductive reasoning would be to spot the sack of seeds and then approach. But if spotting the axe, something is wrong and you stay away. This is where intelligence comes in.

A key part of intelligence is pattern recognition. Exactly what it sounds like. We need to rely on that to spot when we need to employ deductive reasoning. Smart people are often just processing more and because of that spotting the irregularities. But a key to that is to learn to rely on inductive reasoning for the areas where you can to free up your brain.

So the statement is factually accurate! But following it might make you commit mistakes so grave they will get you killed.

[Anonymous]

absolutely true