Why has NWS forecasting gotten worse and worse the past number of years even as technology supposedly improves?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Yesterday, they were forecasting 115mph sustained winds for parts of Alaska. i checked live wind observations a couple times yesterday and today, and the highest GUST recorded at the times I checked was around 59mph, with a 39mph sustained wind. The predicted GUST with a 115mph sustained wind would actually be 155mph 3-second gusts.

What the heck were they thinking? Winter lows virtually never get above 110mph in the Northern Hemisphere, and this wasn't even close to 100mph. The computer model got it about right, by forecasting 50kts or 57mph gusts, but NWS ran with this one scenario and forecast Category 3 hurricane conditions for Alaska, and even issued orders telling people to evacuate Mobile Homes and seek sturdier structures. Like were they trying to start a panic or something?

[lightbulb27]

lets meet the people doing the job and find out.

across the spectrum, been skills decline. watch videos about flying planes and you might think twice doing that.

like all fields, is it cost cutting, hiring policies, training? people inside the system would know, not me.

[exitseven]

I think that itis actually better than it was. I can remember the Blizzard of 78. There was only supposed ot be a little snow and it ended up one of the major storms in history, businesses were closed and the highways were closed for a week. Many lives were lost. The forecasts were totally wrong. There has not been such an inaccurate forecast since.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

You must not follow tropical weather then. A few years ago, they blew the Hurricane Otis Forecast so bad they had to issue a public apology and retraction. They forecast it to get no stronger than tropical storm and to turn out to sea, instead, it made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane.

[exitseven]

Thanks for the MHO😎

[LongLiveBillGates]

You can thank Don the Con for that. He fired a much of people at the NWS. And as climate change is getting worse and worse. A perfect recipe for disaster indeed. But what do you expect with Don the Con as president. Everything he does is a disaster. He's the biggest disaster ever.

[msc545]

While technology has improved, the perceived decline in National Weather Service (NWS) forecast accuracy recently stems from significant staffing cuts, leading to fewer weather balloons launched (less input data), reduced local analysis, and slower alerts; coupled with climate change making historical patterns less reliable, and reliance on aging models that struggle with rapid, extreme events, creating a perfect storm of challenges despite advanced tools.

[exitseven]

@msc545 Why don;t you just say what you mean, Its all Trumps fault,.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

@exitseven He's wrong anyway. You do not need 10,000 people to forecast the weather correctly. That's precisely why trump fired the excess baggage.

The problem is they are actually relying on computer models too much and not developing real skills themselves.

[msc545]

No, I'm not wrong. Apparently you don't know anything about weather forecasting.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

lol. I studied Meteorology under PhD level instructors for over 10 years. I'm very, very good at forecasting.

[msc545]

That's nice. I'm glad you're a good forecaster. That doesn't mean you're necessarily knowledgeable about how many people it takes to forecast the weather. Just because you're good at it doesn't mean others are good at it.

[jshm2]

Because felon Trump has completely gutted the place from his first term.

[Twalli]

It's actually a lot better. Our 7-day forecasts are more accurate than daily forecasts were when weather reports started being televised.

[Daytoday79]

Lots of them have been fired