Does the Joint Typhoon Warning Center realize the quality of their forecasting has gone way down?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

They just blew an intensity forecast for Errol where they said it was going no higher than 100kts just 12 hours ago, but now the storm is Category 5. I woke up at 1am in the night to go to the restroom, and then glanced at the black and white satellite and said, "That looks like a Cat 5". At the time, JTWC only had it listed as 80kts/90mph. Now, 7 hours later, they have finally upgraded it to 140kts/160mph, and it's probably even stronger than that, since it's double nested grey on the Black and White Dvorak tool.

What do you think of this?

Dvorak Satellite Loop for Tropical Cyclone ERROL Tropical Tidbits

Updates

1 y

Also, CIMSS is always so far behind on the Microwave Imagery products that they are useless for forecasting. It's like, "Oh, 6 hours ago the storm was 120kts."

Geez. Six hours ago it would be nice to know it was actually 140kts and climbing.

[strateguy632]

More likely #errol has better more accurate equipment, than a private home can buy.

[Anonymous]

So one error means the quality of their entire forecasting has gone way down? Weather is never going to be an exact science.

[SeekerOfTruth007]

This is not an outlier. I've noticed in the past several years that NHC and JTWC are getting WORSE at their jobs. Two years ago, they blew the Hurricane Otis forecast so bad it's ridiculous, claiming it was going out to sea as a TS, and instead it turned inland as a Cat 5.

Sometimes, I think they have no idea what they are doing anymore.

[Anonymous]

They are concerned with quantity over quality.