At least two intensity models are still taking the hurricane up to 130mph/Category 4 right before landfall. One of the High Resolution models is also taking it all the way to 940mb and around 140mph Category 4.
I'm not trolling people better be ready to evacuate either tonight or early in the morning. This is going to be worse than the experts thought. Even NHC and Fox News are now calling for Cat 3 at max intensity, and they often under-estimate these things.
Sorry I've flip-flopped a few times in the past few days, but this is not an easy intensity forecast with the shear and dry air making it not obvious that this thing found a ZONE of sweet air and is going to intensify thaat much more anyway.
Be ready for correctly applied use of the term "Catastrophic Damage".
Category 4 (130–156 mph / 209–251 km/h)
Structural Impact: Well-built framed homes sustain severe damage, including the loss of most of the roof structure and/or exterior walls.
Environment & Utilities: Most trees are snapped or uprooted and power poles are downed, isolating residential areas.
Livability: Power outages last for weeks to possibly months, and most of the area becomes uninhabitable for weeks or months
www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../satlooper.php
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1Opinion
Nope
Well, thank God the thing died down due to shear. Although NHC did not use the data, the hurricane briefly had winds of 130+mph for about a one hour window. It died down to 105mph for landfall.
There was a house which experienced "Devastating" level damage, due to not having plywood exterior on walls and studs not having fire blocks and proper nails. The outer wall was compromised and part of the roof and 2nd story wall was also destroyed. If the hurricane had been so much as 5mph stronger at landfall, this large house would have been totally destroyed due to SHODDY CONSTRUCTION, which was certainly not "Andrew Code".
Most of the damage seems to be limited to tree damage and electrical grid damage, so people can be expecting to be out of power for several days in Florida and Alabama where the worst of the damage occured. Again, fortunately shear and dry air killed the hurricaen just before landfall.
There’s a hurricane in North Florida
I forgot to mention, there was a medium-sized shopping center which also experienced complete roof failure, which aqualifies as "Catastrophic damage". So again, I wasn't entirely wrong on this forecast. This was borderline if the storm was any stronger, the catastrophic damages would have been wide-spread.
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