It is a German politician who said that Europe is a geopolitical herbivore in a world of carnivores.
Of course we can consider that the weight of Europe had diminished with the first world war, and the second world war definitively put an end to the power of Europe.
This decrease in the Europe is sad enough for me, when you know that before, European countries have dominated the world for several centuries.
Is Europe doomed to no longer count on the international scene?
To start, it is to remember that, as Lincoln famously noted, the only words that are true and permanent forever are - "This too shall pass..." In that sense, nothing - neither Europe's rise nor its' fall - was foreordained. So in that sense, Europe is not "doomed" to anything.
That said, certain factors are at work that diminish Europe's role in the world. Ironically one of those factors being a consequence of its own success. "Demographics is destiny," and one facet of human demographics is that as they grow wealthier, they procreate less and their populations age. This leading, over time, to lower productivity, thus relatively lower wealth compared to younger populations, and in a geopolitical context less military power and diplomatic weight.
This is Europe's principle weakness at the most fundamental level. It was the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution and thus the first to experience rapid changes in technology, massive population growth in the short run - initially wealth tends to reinforce higher birthrates - and in a sparsely populated world of comparatively primitive economies, the birth of empires.
Europe's lead over time diminished as what Europe developed - industrialization, technology, and yes, political theory - it took with it into its empires into the broader world. In that context, the world wars only accelerated a process that was ongoing in any case. They accelerated Europe's decline. They did not cause it.
Thus now Europe is relatively weaker in the broad geopolitical context. Weaker than the United States, weaker than China. Yet the picture is not as bleak as it sounds.
The states of Europe are economically and militarily stronger - separately and collectively - than those of Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and much of Asia. In effect, Europe is to the world what Italy was to the late 19th and early 20th centuries - the weakest of the great power. Note though, still a great power.
Of course, this is not across the board and Europe must be analyzed - the EU notwithstanding - state by state. France and the UK remain significant military powers - diminished in numbers but with advanced equipment, training, high quality leadership, mobility. (Please note that it is the UK and France that are saving their citizens in Afghanistan at the moment while the USA is paralyzed.)
Germany remains - aging population notwithstanding - the world's fourth largest economy. Bigger than Russia and India, two states with far more extensive territory and far larger populations.
Further, it must be added that to some degree, Europe has chosen a diminished role. Since their respective defeats in World War II, Germany and Italy have essentially withdrawn from a global role by choice. The EU being not only a mechanism to maintain the balance of power within Europe, but in some ways to absent its member states from an individual global role. (Not for nothing has it been said that the EU has a "least common denominator foreign policy." Inaction being the results when the member states cannot agree on a common position.)
The bottom line is that there are certain intrinsic factors at work that will diminish Europe's weight in the world. However, that diminishing is also a choice. A decision by its individual states to stand aside.
Will Europe ever be what it was? In economic and military terms, the demographics say no. However, as Japan - a relatively small power in terms of population and the size of its economy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries - has demonstrated, that does not preclude an influential global role.
In that sense, Europe has chosen its course - and unless something disturbs in a fundamental way the calculus by which Europe made that choice - it is not apt to change. Thus it is less doomed than it is content to stand aside from the tumult around it. Only time will tell if that is possible, let alone wise.
Excellent response. You are right to say that Europe has chosen diminish its global role. Which can be comprehensive when one thinks of all the wars that the countries of Europe are making. This choice is much easier to make as the USA ensures the security of Europe in a way. The real question is, what will the countries of Europe do if the usa abandons nato?
That last point is what the current situation in Afghanistan raises. The potential of US "abandonment of Europe" has always been a latent issue - even during the Cold War, particularly during the 1970s post-Vietnam. Then along Reagan and in the early days of his Administration, Europe went full reverse and feared that the USA was going to get them into a war they did not want. (With some exceptions - see also Lady Thatcher and even to some degree President Mitterrand.)
In any case, at the moment, France and the UK (and even Germany) are furious with President Biden for he handled matters and it has shaken faith in the USA and NATO. Hence why Germany's likely next Chancellor called this episode the greatest crisis in NATO's history.
That said, while there will be - and have been - strains in the alliance, at the most irreducible strategic level, for the time being, each side needs the other. That will not change, though the priorities will be different.
Odds are, though, that if a split does come with the USA, it will split Europe. Bigger powers will pursue their national interests, while smaller states will still seek to shelter in the EU.
That said, without knowing the specific circumstances of a USA/Europe split, it is not possible to answer your question in any detail. Tell me the situation and you can play out the scenario.
Yes exactly, European countries want American protection but they don't want it to engage them in a war they don't want. they want the butter and the butter money, as they say in France.
Of course European countries have an interest in having the Usa stay and maybe also the Usa having allies can be of use to them.
But what would Europe do if the USA abandoned NATO. European countries find themselves in a great fragility, especially as no European army can face Russia or other. So how can Europe protect itself.
I listened to Hubert Védrine who explained that at this moment Europe would decide to be "neutral" "Pacifist" in the event of withdrawal from the Usa.
Only France clings to this completely crazy idea of defense Europe, yet no country wants it every French president insists on this project
As far as what Europe would do if there was a split with the USA - and as I say, I don't think that likely in a general sense, though certainly on specific issues - "Odds are, though, that if a split does come with the USA, it will split Europe. Bigger powers will pursue their national interests, while smaller states will still seek to shelter in the EU.
That said, without knowing the specific circumstances of a USA/Europe split, it is not possible to answer your question in any detail. Tell me the situation and you can play out the scenario."
As to France, specifically, there are reasons why it keeps pointing to the "defense of Europe." Specifically, France has piggybacked its military power on European - and specifically German - economic might to augment French foreign policy and diplomatic influence.
It may be being sold to the public - particular so as not to alarm other European publics - as a collective defense in Europe. In reality it is because France has been able to magnify its diplomatic influence and military power via using the EU as a tool. It is realpolitik, through and through.
Now, could the EU tail end up wagging the French dog? Certainly it is a possibility. For the moment, though, it is France playing the game that it has played since it quit NATO's military structure and joined the "Common Market" back in the day.
As to a split over Russia, that is a real danger and as I have written before, if China and Russia are able to patch up, or at least place in abeyance, their historic rivalries, the West in general, including the USA will like face a combination it cannot defeat. Part of that will be because for the UK and France, Ukraine will be the major concern. Whereas for Japan and South Korea, Taiwan will be the issue - and the USA will be divide itself.
I think Europe is today better than it ever was historically. Political influence is highly overrated look at the countires who had it and have it today, their people suffer for it more than anyone else. Look at the US, so powerful yet so many homeless so many people living paycheck to paycheck, many basic needs not met. Look at china, such a great nation yet the people there are nothing but livestock, the government keeps them as brainwashed as possible and kills off any stragglers that grow a shred of brain.
Europe today really has it easy compared to others, minus the pandemic that hit everyone, Europe is touristic, eco-friendly, a place where there is freedom (mostly as there are countries in Europe that are struggling with that) but generally speaking it's a place that leaves little to be desired
I’m European and my heart cries for Europe. The land of blond hair people the land of red hair people the land of brown hair people the land of beautiful people. Europe is so culturally rich and beautiful and very oriented. Families stay together. It’s so hard to destroy us if you recognize we are the latest to get destroyed this you see many immigration influx “due “ to man made causes.. that’s so we vanish easily because they are tired of our amazing bond. Marry European if you can.. follow your heart yes but also follow that cute brown hair green eye girl too lol make some babies pls ~ you German man out there I know you are strategic and so bright but damit work is not everything make some babies
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Anonymous
(25-29)
+1 y
I don't care about anything about Europe. They can also go underground. for me. no problem.
Well that's part of why Brexit happened in the first place: the UK did not take kindly to having to be even somewhat subservient to the EU and wants to continue being one of the top 5 world powers. We will see how that goes...
Basically, as long as the EU continues to exist in the way that it does, none of its individual members are going to be particularly important. Its strongest members, like Germany, will be able to have some pull, but that's about it. The EU itself is very flawed however, and has a difficult time flexing power and influence beyond its own members.
Why should britain put the most into the eu kitty? Thats why it pulled out why should it subsidise the likes of poland etc. We dont want to be a super power we just want control of our own fucking light bulbs and not be bullied by germany
12.2K opinions shared on Society & Politics topic.
What the fuck are you smoking, dimwit?
Europe exceeds the USA and China in being an economic powerhouse, and historical conglomerate not seen since the ages of empire.
That "German politician" (not as if a German politician hasn't been wrong before, eh?) was probably touting for federalism, hence oversimplifying and misconstruing.
The "weight" of Europe is such that it is the largest trading bloc in the world and not even China tries to compete with it.
Europe is likely to take over the global mantle when the USA collapses, as the Soviet Unions did, after losing in Afghanistan
Not doomed. But it's moving in that trajectory. EU has several problems. You can watch this video that I personally found very interesting (it's kinda long): for your convenience: Europe is on 18:34
I feel the future within 20-30 lies no longer in Europe, but in South-East Asia (Japan, China, Thailand, India, Malaysia) and in 'some' of the Middle East (specifically Qatar, the UAE). OR it'll just be Africa and Russia and whatever is left of China. I feel like the 2040s will be a big deal. 😁😁😁🥳
Germany became pussies and now they convince the rest of Europe to be pussies.
Pay your fair share of NATO is the least you can do. Pay what you agreed to even though we in the US know you will be worthless in war except for the UK and a few other Eastern European countries.
Think about it Europe Used to have so many wars and every country had a large army. Now the Europe has broken itself into much smaller countries and haven't been at war with eachother besides proxy wars y'all are basically fangless. Except Ukraine.
Nah, once Muslims have enslaved Europe extracted all of your resources, and established absolute Sharia law; Europe will have power again... but Europeans won't wield it.
yup. both Europe and america will soon be to china and russia, was africa is to us now.
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Anonymous
(36-45)
+1 y
Their minds are being controlled by marxists and feminist cunts. They have it in their power to assert themselves but they are acting like little girls instead
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