Will the United States "win" the trade war with China?

[Julielamar2]

[nightdrot]

The question is problematic in that it begs the matter of what "winning" a "trade war" would like. Even more, is there a "trade war" between China and the USA, or is the friction in trade relations between the two sides merely the normal expression of economic competition? These questions hinting at the ambiguous aspects of the current USA/PRC rivalry.

To be sure, the USA and China are geopolitical rivals as such rivalry is the norm between great powers in the international arena. The particulars of that rivalry tending to be case specific. Yet in the economic realm, there are forces that are apt to drive the two sides together as apart.

At least going back to the origins on free market theory as seen in Adam Smith - who famously said, "The merchant has no country." - David Ricardo and Milton Friedman, among others, the argument has been that competition has the paradoxical effect of creating cooperation. Over time, each side needs the other as a supplier of raw materials and foodstuffs, as a market for consumer goods, etc.

This was further refined by Ricardo, who argued that over time, each nation - as it moved up the economic scale - would specialize in those things where it could maximize profitability. Thus China has moved from a peasant/agricultural economy to an industrial/manufacturing base economy. There being more money to be made in turning screws on an assembly line than in harvesting corn.

Thus ditto the United Stats, which has moved from a manufacturing/industrial economy to a service/high tech economy. There being more money to be made from writing computer programs than from turning screws on an assembly line. Again, as with China, the USA's economy has evolved naturally. (The USA having gone through its agricultural/mercantile phase in the early days of the Republic to the industrial phase from the 1870s to the 1970s and now, starting in approximately the 1980s, the tech/service phase.)

What has caught Americans - and not just their government, but their people - by surprise is that they somewhat, as victors will tend to do, oversimplified the causes of their victory in the Cold War. In the popular imagination, it was American free markets and democracy that led to the downfall of the USSR - and there is some truth in that, just that it is NOT the whole truth - and therefore the assumption has been that exposing all tyrannies to free markets and democracy will gradually undermine those tyrannies.

Thus the USA finds itself in competition with a rival power that is in an earlier stage of economic development and is still growing. As the USA has evolved in a post-industrial direction, it has - a free market theory suggests it would - grown dependent on others to provide the manufacturing that the American economy has outgrown. Thus, the USA is in geopolitical competition with a country, China, that it is economically entwined with - and vice-versa.

This is a problem, but it is a mistake to assume that it is only a problem for the USA. The Chinese economy needs American technology - which is why China so heavily engages in industrial espionage. China's population is also aging far faster than expected - an after-effect of the now rejected "one child policy." All of this - among other factors - is weakening China

So each side needs the other in economic terms, but they are geopolitical rivals. China's autocratic government might make the short term handling of economic hardship easier to bear, but in the long run the American democratic system is more adaptable.

Which side then will "win" the trade war? Both - and neither. The question being ultimately resolved outside the narrow economic sphere.

[Julielamar2]

I quite agree with your analysis. It reminds me of the first world war, the English and the Germans were economically linked. The Germans, just like China today, had considerably increased their maritime capacity, and their economies kept growing, which is to say that it ended with the First World War.

But today the atomic bomb makes a military war between the USA and China unlikely. Therefore I do not see how the geopolitical clashes between the USA and China will be able to be resolved. Unless in the long term, China collapses like the ussr in the past

[nightdrot]

Funny you should mention World War I. I was going to mention it - had I more space - and also Germany and the USSR in World War II. In the latter case, German soldiers at the border watched - the morning of the invasion as they prepared to attack - as Soviet trains were still heading into Germany to deliver food and raw materials to the latter as per the German-Soviet Pact.

Suffice to say, it gets complicated.

As to your last point, the atomic bomb overshadowed the Cold War - and yet it was resolved. First, nuclear weapons make war more dangerous - but accidents and miscalculations happen and war can therefore never be ruled out. What may not happen by design may happen unintentionally.

In any case, when you get to that point, you are hardly talking about "trade war" any longer. That said, as the Cold War itself demonstrated, geopolitical rivalries can end in other ways short of all out military conflict.

[Julielamar2]

Well indeed my question may not seem very clear given the geopolitical context of today, I asked this question in this way because I had read an article on the "trade war".

Anyway i hope you and your family are doing well, wish you a good day 😊

[nightdrot]

On the first point, there is a "trade war" in the sense that geopolitical rivals are trading - and in the case of the Americans at least, are having second thoughts about it. Americans have been horrified to learn that much of their manufactured goods - including some medicines which, after being invented in the USA, must be produced - come from China.

Understand that, on both sides, there is not necessarily a full awareness of the implications and ramifications of their policies. Americans think that free trade helps to undermine tyranny - and after a fashion and a time, it can. (See again the Cold War.)

However, the flip side is that economics also requires trade-offs. These are not fully grasped by either side and so Americans - to use that example - get free trade and are then horrified to learn that it is not all benefits that result, but some costs too. This before, by the way, you count the cheating and rule breaking - see again Chinese industrial espionage.

Wishing you and yours' well, too. Have a good day!!

[ChrisMaster69]

If they wanted to.

the Tariff’s did and have hurt organisations.

A number have moved out of China and went to other cheaper countries.

The big annoyance is the majority of manufactured good people buy are not from Chinese companies but from US or European (and other western companies) who have shifted manufacturing out to China.

Its a bit like with the UK and the EU, companies moved manufacturing to likes of Czech Republic, for example Black & Decker moved there in around 2002 at the cost of 1000 ish jobs in the UK.

It was cheaper to manufacture over there and ship to the UK..

Similar situation with China.

if Western companies pull out of China, that’s a large chunk of employment, and income gone.

[dustybiker]

Both sides need the other. Situations like this are not won, they are always reached.

[Mangospacho]

Probably the US will win. Once COVID hit, that was a wake up call for some businesses to move their businesses back to the US or at least North America. Most of the supply chain problems are coming from the AsiaPac zone and businesses are starting to get hurt by the delays in shipping so they will probably start to move their businesses back even more now. If China retaliates, it will only worsen their situation. Also, China hasn’t been innovative and has stolen most of the technologies they use, which can be a huge disadvantage in a trade war.

[RyanEC]

I don’t think we (the US) would win in a trade war.
Our leadership and economic elite has too much money invested in China so they don’t have the will to act.
Trump failed in his trade war because he didn’t have enough support from the economic elite.

[Lliam]

I doubt it. Bill Clinton began the end of U. S. manufacturing. Farms were gradually taken over by mega-corporations that produce GMO crops that many people don't want. China is even overtaking the U. S. in electronics and tech.
It seems that all the U. S. has left is military might.

[KingofCups]

Not chance. Ironically it was in 2019 when the Chinese GDP finally surpassed the USA GDP that corona virus mysteriously appeared out of Wuhan. And what do you know American Multinational Companies like Pfizer, Moderna, Facebook, Amazon, etc made billions of $$$$ while everyone was trapped in Lockdowns.

[MrCommodore]

I'm not sure what a trade war win look like? To answer your question, we would need to really understand what winning would be. Perhaps slowing their growth?

[Julielamar2]

for example the history of England can be a very good example of a trade war victory, whether against Holland, France etc.

[MrCommodore]

Yes it was, when trade was primarily via naval routes, but it was short lived, the British empire collapsed soon afterwards.

[RolandCuthbert]

Of course not. Our political system is broken. We can't compete with other nations, because at this point, we are not even a nation ourselves. We have been taken down from the inside.

[Oigit]

That and we are not the only country the China makes goods for a ships goods for as well. If anything I bet several other countries would rush to fill the gap that we leave if we start cutting ties with China. If anything the countries want to fill that gap will start pushing out of China as well.

[RolandCuthbert]

@Oigit But that is only because it is cheaper to make good over in China/Philippines, etc., then ship them wherever. These are business decisions. And we don't seem to have the strength to enact policies to change that.

Why can't we compete as a manufacturer?

[Oigit]

In theory we can and to me a 2nd industrial revolution that pushes US based companies to manufacture their goods in the US would help us in a lot of areas. I think that positions of power are going to push back a lot and it might surprise people who ends up pushing back against the idea. Be it people involved in the business or political end.

Also I hate to say it. But it seems like people complain about the price of non-essentials going up. So you have a i phone manufactured in the US and another manufactured another country. If the one from another is cheaper it will more more then likely sell a lot more then the one manufactured in the states. If people did get the reasoning why it's important to support manufacturing in the US, a lot of people will only see the price stickers in the end.

[RolandCuthbert]

@Oigit Well, of course we all want cheap goods. But when you are dealing with nations who don't even meet the minimum standards for safety, income, etc. for their workers, it becomes a really hard for American workers to compete. Right now, the difference in salary between the U. S. and China is only at 16%. But companies are still not planning to bring jobs back.

Why is it that folks pretend the Republicans and Democrats are at odds over this issue? When in truth, both parties do everything they can to accelerate outsourcing. Well, everyone except Bernie Sanders.

[Dargil]

It will take a lot of work and planning. The current administration is incapable and does not want to win it. Democrats want to dismantle the country in every way. It will take a Republican legislature and President to restore us.

[ibodi]

life never start from win or lose.
Xi said need to pay attention to Thucydides Trap before trade world after seeing taiwanese and Japanese. Chinese just want to fill their lack.

[AviatorTom]

No one really wins a trade war, but in the long run, I suspect the US will come out ahead. China's economy us suffering and the US is its biggest customer.

[jshm2]

It's already lost.

All that is left is the world to drop the dollar standard, and the US becomes the new Soviet Union.

[20yearsolder]

Never, the shit coming out of China is too cheap and China can pretty much produce anything they need. They don't need our crap

[nachosaresexy]

US wins as long as we keep electing such vibrant beacons of wisdom like Trump and Biden.

[exitseven]

Not the way things have been going the last year. It looks like Biden is waving the white flag.

[Surely]

Not until we get another president that promotes Fair and Equal trade agreements.
Then stop taxing businesses and manufacturers out of the country!

[Exterminatore]

Not under the current administration and it’s policies.

[OddBeMe]

Not sure. Depends who has the will and resources to outlast the other. They need our consumerism as much as we need their manufacturers.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

U. S. A. The Chinese are short pathetic super cucks.

The U. S. military might is outstanding and extremely powerful.

[Hispanic-Cool-Guy]

Opps. Misread your question.

[Ressurection]

You should really look at the chinese women military parade.

[Anonymous]

In short yes. It'll hurt both countries but it'll hurt China much more. Nobody really wins in war. Even a trade war.

[grega239]

wasn't trump doing it already?

Oh wait it was racist or something...

[Pterodon]

Not under biden. You can't win when you give them our jobs

[emperor90]

Nope china has a bigger population so they will win

[Anonymous]

Hell no you saw what happen last year.


China has africa, Jamaica Russia owe them money, and they make majority of the USA stuff.

[wankiam]

it already has... sorry bout that

[tartaarsaus]

Nobody wins trade wars

[tartaarsaus]

Also, no trade deficit is unfair

[Andres77]

Not with a treasonous president... nope.

[jahaims]

Not if we stay on the path we are on

[JohnK123]

No bc all our shit comes from china

[Anonymous]

Nope.. the world made in china..

[disgustingweebtrash]

China already won

[Julielamar2]

in the long term we will see

[disgustingweebtrash]

You're seeing the long term effects from Deng Xiaopings economic revamp of China, you have already lost, America dies with not a bang but a faint whimper.

[Julielamar2]

I am not American, your country is the perfidious albion?

Remember that at the time of the cold war everything indicated that the USSR was going to overtake the Usa economically. In the long term they collapsed, and today Russia is the 11th economy in the world.

[disgustingweebtrash]

The USSR never was going to overtake USA because they never opened their economy up to capitalism the same way China has
China by nature of being a wealthy totalitarian nation means that the CCP has a lot of money to send to high places in other countries

[Julielamar2]

Read @nightdrot answer to this question.

Can China overtake the Usa and become the world's leading power? ↗

[disgustingweebtrash]

Yes - basically confirmed my point
The Russian Empire was basically Agrarian, when the Soviets came to power they were not prepared for anything, they needed rapid industrialisation to build a strong communist state (stalin's socialism in one country)
Industrialisation gave them immense growth, when industrialisation reaches a certain point, there isn't any more to do. So it stagnated under Brezhnev's era there's a soviet joke involving Leonid Brezhnev where he's on a train and it stops and his idea is to draw the curtains, turn the gramophone on and pretend the train is moving (referencing his stagnation period) this stagnation period happened because they didn't do what China did, embrace Capitalism.

Now China has embraced it and is winning at it and will keep winning at it, simply because no one can compete unless their workforce started demanding the same liberties and luxuries that the Western workforce enjoys.

[Julielamar2]

not quite because he explains that the same can happen with China. Then we also had the example of Japan

[disgustingweebtrash]

That could happen, but they've got investments in a lot of Western firms (these Western firms avoid conflict with China, e. g. Blizzard Entertainment had issues with a player saying "Free Hong Kong") They have also proven to be innovative as well as not against stealing IPs as the CCP will never bother pursuing anyone that steals IP from the West

I think they win when all these facts are considered

[Anonymous]

Fuck both of them.