What is going on in Spain? What will happen in Spain? Did Vox come up short because they were off messaging? Will there be a new election?

I suspect Vox lost primarily because they were off messaging. They campaigned primarily on identity issues such as abortion and feminism, as well as immigration whereas I suspect they would’ve done a far better job if they campaigned more on message by focusing on the issues that permeate society more and align better with voters; Jobs and the Economy.

If you study the history of the “far right” in Europe, its pocketbook issues that win them elections. Vox simply just did not capitalize on that factor enough and might’ve even alienated voters by choosing to campaign principally on identity issues.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-vox-party-stumbles-testing-limits-european-far-right-advance-2023-07-24/#:~:text=The%20anti%2Dimmigration%2C%20anti%2D,problematic%20for%20many%20mainstream%20voters.

Regardless, with the current state of things in Spain, its going to be very hard for either party to form a coalition, and if it does happen, it will likely take months.

However it also appears unlikely to happen, as Pedro Sanchez would likely have to make some major concessions to Catalan seperatists, in order to win their support to form a coalition.

Also I’ve heard Catalan seperatism itself is very unpopular among the Spanish electorate, so if he made concessions toward it, I imagine that would be like the equivalent of political suicide.

My prediction? A new election will be called eventually, whether it be relatively soon, or after failed negotiations trying to form a coalition.

I doubt a coalition itself will actually be able to form.

A coalition will form
A new election will be called
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What is going on in Spain? What will happen in Spain? Did Vox come up short because they were off messaging? Will there be a new election?
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