President Trump has topped the latest ABC/WaPo poll so the WaPo has denounced the results as an outlier. Do you think it is an outlier,?

[exitseven]

The poll puts Trump ahead of Biden by ten points. With the economy in a free fall invasion at the border, an endless war in Ukraine, high crime and record number of fentanyl deaths is it really a stretch that people would prefer to have President Trump back?

Updates

+1 y

The same outfit took a poll a few months ago and showed Trump up by 3 points but within the Margin of error. A couple of months later he was up by 6 points. This is not an outlier. It is a trend.

[nightdrot]

Actually, yes, it is an outlier. However, that does not necessarily mean that the poll is wrong. In no small measure because Americans do not quite understand how to read poll data in a more in-depth way.

My answer, by the way, comes from my experience in politics. So I have some background in this. Suffice to add that I am a Republican though not a fan of Mr. Trump.

To start, the poll itself depends in part on the nature of the database from which it was derived. This includes the dates the poll was taken and what was happening during that time. It includes the nature and size of the random sample on whom the poll is based. How many people? How many men? How many women? What was the breakdown of the religion, race, self-described political views, age and employment status of those in the sample.

To the fullest extent possible, the sample should reflect the demographics of the population as well as the likelihood of their voting in the next election. Obviously, the larger the sample size and the more accurately it reflects the demographics of the population, the more accurate the poll.

Also here to add that timing is a factor. Take a poll right after George H. W. Bush won the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991 and you get a 91% approval rating. Take it barely a year later and Mr. Bush is under 50%. Such is the nature of public opinion.

In the case of former President Trump, he has uncharacteristically kept himself out of the news of late, including skipping the past primary election debate and the next one coming up. His first major appearance not coming up till later this week when he addresses the striking UAW workers. An appearance designed to make his appear sympathetic to a working class that has, in recent years, been shifting from the Democratic to the Republican parties.

Beyond that, the only news that Mr. Trump has made was when he condemned the pro-life legislation passed by Governor DeSantis - his primary opponent - in Florida as well as by Governors in several other GOP Governors. Suffice to say, Mr. Trump's switch to a de facto pro-choice position has implications that have not yet been fully absorbed, but will impact key segments of the GOP base.

Put it all together and throw in the fact that President Biden's problems have very much been front and center of late and the result may be a poll that is a bit distorted. To date, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden have been in a statistical dead heat. Which is to say that while one or the other may have been ahead of the other by a point or two, it was effectively a tie give that normal 2 to 4 point margin of error in most polls.

So to suddenly see Mr. Trump ten points ahead is a bit of an aberration. That does not necessarily mean that it is wrong. It could be an indicator of where things are going. The only way to be sure is to watch future polls across time. If the trend continues, we may assume that the WashPost poll was the first indicator of change in the political environment.

Bottom line, one poll does not mean all that much. The best way to read polls is to watch a number of them across time. That is why the website "REALCLEAR Politics" lists poll averages - see here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Take a look.

My hunch is the poll you reference is not wrong, but it is probably exaggerating the true state of things. Given Mr. Biden's recent problems and Mr. Trump's - to repeat - uncharacteristic low visibility, this is not an accurate measurement of where things stand long term. (Plus throw in Mr. Trump's jump to what amounts to a pro-choice position. The impact of that has really not yet been measured.)

Suffice to add, one other thing. National polls are useful, but American elections are state-by-state. So even if Mr. Trump is ahead, it depends where he is getting those margins. Factor all that in and you get the limits of the poll you cite.

[exitseven]

The sample size was 1000 and they got equal numbers of democrats and republicans. and also independents. It was an outlier in the sense that most of the other polls have Biden and Trump tied of Trump only ahead one or two points. There are no polls that have biden in the lead and maybe this poll indicates a trend given the daily revelations of corruption from the Biden crime family and the continuing failures with the economy and the southern border.

[nightdrot]

Please note what I wrote. As I say, it is an outlier in the sense that you suggested. It may confirm a new trend or it may be an aberration. There is simply no way to tell from one poll that shows one result.

Frankly, a thousand people is not a large sample. Also, equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents is NOT an accurate reflection of how those play out in the population. (Typically, there have been larger numbers of independents than Democrats or Republicans.)

Also, are these general voters or "likely" voters. That matters too in terms of predicting electoral outcomes.

As I said, this poll MIGHT represent the start of a new trend or it MIGHT be an aberration. One poll is too small a sample from which to predict the future. In short, stay tuned.

[exitseven]

Actually it was 25% semocrst, 25% republican and 42% independent I don't know about the missing 8 percent.

[OddBeMe]

Would you vote for Trump if he’s the candidate?

[nightdrot]

@OddBeMe If you are asking me, I probably would not, but would write in a candidate. Senator Scott impresses me, though I might consider others. However, as far as Mr. Trump is concerned you can measure the differences between the two men with a micrometer. Both are populists and like most good populists are less motivated by a coherent worldview than they are by an instinct to incite and profit from the societal sense of grievance and self-pity. I have little use for either man.

[nightdrot]

Well, that is better, but again, one poll does not a trend make. If we see three or more polls like this, then we can reasonably infer that it was the first to discover a pronounced shift in voter preferences. For now, it is a statistical aberration.

Besides, as I noted, Mr. Trump has pretty much taken himself off the radar screen. His most noteworthy action having been his seeming shift to a pro-choice stance on the abortion question. (Indeed, he seemed to endorse even late term abortions.)

To be sure, the nature and make-up of the GOP is changing. However, at this point, the pro-life faction is still critical to the GOP and it is hard to see how his recent remarks would improve his poll numbers.

So as I say, it remains to be seen where all this goes.

[nightdrot]

The above comment was directed toward @exitseven's remarks to me.

[BuckCannon]

I heard good news today. JFK Jr is seriously thinking about running as a third party. If he does, Biden is toast, and the Republicans win.

[BuckCannon]

Thanks for the MHO

[GoodGuyBreakingBad]

I don't trust none of them polls and I give up my right to vote and about a year and half ago a woman said the same thing she is not voting I live in Southwestern Pennsylvania they claim 3,500 new voters registered to vote well they better because I refuse to do so politicians is a bunch of crooks.

[OlderAndWiser]

MSM does not want to report facts or be a purveyor of the truth.

[loveslongnails]

You DO realize, or maybe you don't because unfortunately you're not too bright, that Trump has announce he will:
a) END Democracy as we know it
b) remove the powers of checks and balances, especially the SCOTUS
c) follow the 2025 Plan of the Heritage Foundation, which is essential Nazi doctrine
d) concentrate all power in one authoritarian leader

Seven, you and your cult buddies can rant on about the economy (which is better now than under Trump), and fentanyl (more of which has been seized under Biden) as if you REALLY care about it, and crime, which is highest in EVERY Red State in the top 10.

But this threat of ENDING DEMOCRACY is real, and you're too fucking stupid to see it. You and all your Trumpies don't realize that he's simply the ramrod for the Dystopian Era that Christian Nationalists and white supremacists are behind, and YOU are an enabler.

This is Nazi Germany all over again, slowly, step by step, and you're just TOO stupid along with your cult, to realize that Trump is just the poster boy for the END of Democracy.

This isn't a joke or a game, or a difference of opinion. The blueprint is being opened in front of you, and you're spreading the bullshit. The next election has ZERO to do with Trump or Biden, it's about DEMOCRACY or Dystopia. You are clueless.

[exitseven]

When you throw your political adversaries in prison you are destroying Democracy as we know it. I can only see one person doing that and it is not President Trump.

[loveslongnails]

You're a moron. A grand jury indicted him, not Biden. He's committed crimes. He attempted a coup. He attempted to overthrow OUR government, and YOU support him. That makes you a traitor as well.

BUT... you ignored my entire post. Trump has TOLD YOU he will END DEMOCRACY... and here you sit, supporting him. He's telling you "VOTE FOR ME NOW, AND YOU'LL NEVER HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT VOTING AGAIN!! " What the fuck is wrong with you? I guess you must want to live in a dictatorship. You're ill, seven.

[goaded]

Which "political adversaries" are in prison? A load of Trump's lawyers have been disbarred for lying to courts. A thousand of his supporters have been convicted for their actions on Jan 6, including over a dozen for seditious conspiracy. They're hoping for pardons from Trump because they did it for him.

[exitseven]

The crimes are made up even if he is convicted they will all be overturned on appeal. This was all done in an attempt to steal another election.

[goaded]

But they're not "made up", they're obviously real to anyone who doesn't believe all Trump's lies.

[loveslongnails]

You're very ill, seven, and not being able to read doesn't help either. His own insiders have admitted to committing crimes for him and have gone to jail for doing them. I'll say this one more time for you and your cult:

NO ONE HAS EVER HAD TO LIE ABOUT TRUMP'S ACTIONS AS A CRIMINAL. No one has ever had to make up stories. ALL you had to do, was listen to his own words, follow the facts, follow the money, and there's your evidence. He's now forbidden from doing business in New York because of fraud. That's made up too, right?

You're so deep in denial about anything Trump, you've become wholly delusional. You really should seek help because you're not in touch with what's real about him, and you're going to vote to end Democracy, IF he's even allowed to run.

[sage2021]

They should have never let him go in the first place. He proved himself time and time again and He did make America Soooo great again.
That's a bunch of horse pucky only 10 percent over Biden? Not fair!
We all should remember that Trump had a lavish life before he became our President. He didn't have to give up the life he lived and loved only to be harrased all of these years, and still is being harrased. He knows America is on it's last leg and he STILL WANTS TO FIX IT! He is a man of steel, that's for sure. But he keeps hanging in there no matter what.
I don't know X7, it's looking grim.

[normalice]

Maybe. To me it doesn't really matter. That it's even close is just sad. How does a guy try to end democracy and herald permanent Christian nationalism and still there are real adults who would vote for him over the guy who has three years of nonstop success behind him? We are just an insecure and stupid country and I guess we have to go through the pain of Christian nationalism for a few decades until all the stupid people have had time to die off. I don't even know if it's worth delaying it further. The Christian nationalists own all the media so it's pretty much inevitable anyway. We are too dumb to stop being tricked just because the trick is obvious, when the benefits of being tricked include having someone to be mad at. It's too uphill to fill in that one missing piece of the far right puzzle where they are equally pissed at the upper class as the left but blame the left instead of the upper class. The trick is obvious but being mad feels too good, I guess.

[exitseven]

Non stop success? At what? Destroying America,? Can you honestly point to one single thing Biden has done that has helped American citizens?

[normalice]

Yes. But first I want to hear from you that, upon learning "one single thing" Biden has done to help American citizens, you will instantly admit you have been lied to, led around by a rage addiction, and played for a fool.

And if you can't make that promise then why are you asking?

[whirled_up_girl]

Honestly I think it's difficult to say. In the past the polls have been wrong more than they've been right it seems.

[exitseven]

I think that a lot of people don't want to tell anyone they will vote for Trump because they fear retaliation from the democrats.

[goaded]

What possible retaliation could there be?

[exitseven]

@goaded you could lose your job. Your kids can even be retaliated against if they go tobpublic schools

[goaded]

For answering questions in an anonymous poll?

[Lliam]

Hahahaha. It's WaPo that's the outlier. Or just liar.
I can't believe anyone at all would still be supporting Biden.

[exitseven]

I want to know just who is that 41 percent? There are not that many illegal aliens here yet.

[goaded]

The war in Ukraine is less than two years old, and doesn't involve any US military, the "endless war" was started by Bush, lasted 20 years, and was ended by Biden (tidying up the mess he was left by Trump who give the country to the Taliban). There's no "invasion" at the border, there are desparate people clamouring to come in.

[exitseven]

Trump is the only president in modern times to not start a war. The debacle in Afghanistan is 100 % Bidens fault along with his military advisors, Larry and Curly.

[goaded]

Did I miss Biden starting a war? Or Carter?

[RealMarek]

That means Biden will win with 51% of the votes after hundreds of thousands of single-vote ballots are counted in select swing states at 4:00 AM after observers are sent home. This will be “the freest and fairest election ever,” and if you disagree you could be charged with seditious conspiracy or fired. Welcome to the new, Soviet-like America, where the “our” in “our democracy” is possessed by whatever oligarchy buys it.

[SexyBrunetteNY]

The media are liars. We all know the truth and we don't need some poll to reflect reality.

[Bricealan]

I'm with you. I have not see the U. S. in such a nightmare mess.

[BoopBoopBeep]

Who did they poll? If they did "likely voters" vs "undecided" vs "likely moderates" you're looking at three different results.

[AviatorTom]

I never trust polls. As my father used to say "Figures don't lie but liars can figure."

[OddBeMe]

Just as polls for Hillary the day before the election in 2016…yeah. Stop reading bs polls. He’s number one in Repub primaries (five time indicted- and sexual assualt convicted).

[Avicenna]

He's never been convicted of sexual assault. You're too stupid to know the difference between civil and criminal proceedings.
And those indictments are based largely on invented crimes with, to put it politely, novel legal theories and were handed down by grand juries filled with Democrats.

[goaded]

@Avicenna What is the difference between being found guilty of sexual assault in a civil and criminal proceeding?

[goaded]

@Avicenna Is it like the difference between OJ Simpson being found not guilty of murder but having to pay $33 million because he did it?

[OddBeMe]

Yeah @goaded! Trump IS oj

[exitseven]

Yes, I remember that a few days before the election hillery was up by ten points. I still thought Trump would win. I even bet one of my techs a lunch. You know, the samn liberal has never paid up

[OddBeMe]

Well I’m glad you don’t paint all liberals with that broad brush of your tech friend.

[msc545]

It may be an outlier or the result of defective methodology. It doesn't matter - Trump is not going to be on a lot of ballots, and he is going to prison.

[exitseven]

The only outliar is the Washington Post. The poll consisted of a thousand participants and asked a series of questions checking Bidens approval rate on the economy, crime, the Southern Border, gas prices, Foreign policy and the war in Ukraine. Biden's approval rate was rock bottom on all of these issues. The vast majority felt that when Trump was president things were better and then they asked the question who would you vote for today. Trump won 52 to 42 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. . Ther methodology was the same for all questions and the pool of applicants were of equal numbers of Democrats a d Republicans .
All of the states that were trying to keep Trump off the ballot have backed off an will not take any action until the courts rule on this. That is not likely considering there is no evidence and courts are reluctant to make any decision as controversial as this one.
However , there is a real danger that the democrats will take him out. Trump had been advised of this and is taking it seriously but even the Secret Service and his own private security can 100% protect him.

[goaded]

"there is no evidence" LMAO.

[exitseven]

@goaded what evidence is there? Nane a single shred of evidence? It has not even been established that it was anything more than a riot

[goaded]

There's tons of it. You just refuse to look at it. More than a dozen people involved have been convicted of seditious conspiracy for Jan 6, of course if was "more than a riot", it was a concerted effort to stop the certification of the election.