Stock Market Rally?

[exitseven]

The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than a thousand points since it was confirmed that President Trump was okay after the shooting. Coincidence? How much do you think it would have gone down if he had been killed?

1000

2000

10,000

20,000

[CrazyGirl2]

Well The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 40,954.48, as of the closing bell, up +742.76 (1.85%) today. But Trump was nominated in the morning When we look to historical analogs, after the Kennedy assassination the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.7%, down 34.95, which was the second-largest point decline on record at that point. Now assuming (given the current social volatility, that Trumps assassination would result in at least a similar result of 5.7%, (of the current industrial average of 40,954.48) that would equal a loss of 2034.378 points. So my answer to your question, is B) 2,000!

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_Slide_of_1962#

[exitseven]

@CrazyGirl2 I am pretty impressed with the research that you went through to determine an answer.

[CrazyGirl2]

Why, thank you very much! ❤️ I don't believe in wag’s (wild ass guesses). So I figured looking to historical analogs would be the best means to calculate the “what-if’s”. I really appreciate your compliment.

Thank you so much.
Laura 🤗 🥰

[CrazyGirl2]

Thank you so much for the MHO

Sincerely, Laura 🤗 🥰

[TrueConfection]

It would have dropped at least 2000 points.

[AviatorTom]

My theory is that there would have a been a week of initial downs followed by ups, resulting in pretty much where the previous week ended.

Stock Markets don't like uncertainty. Had Trump died, the market would have dropped significantly as many would have sold stocks. The NYSE has automatic safeties in place to prevent wide market swings. We might have seen 1000 point drops for a few days before stability set in, driven by the Republicans nominating a new candidate, which might have caused a positive swing in the market, back close to where it was the day before Trump's incident.

[HighValue]

https://www.youtube.com/embed/AYhq0M3Bqy4

They were planning on it being succeeding the day before. They knew.

[WhiteSteve]

Stock market has been doing great for a while, where have you been, man? Economy is way better than advertised, we’re just getting gouged by corporations at the cash register and the gas pump.

[exitseven]

The stock market is finally back where it was when Trump was president so that is good news. The bad news is that investment account is only worth about 70% of what it was worth 4 years ago because of inflation/.

[Red_Arrow]

Finally back? In 2020, Trump famously predicted that “the stock market will crash” if Joe Biden became president. Biden did, and equity investors have since turned a handsome profit.

Since Biden took office, the S&P 500 stock index has risen a healthy 40%, capped by a five-month rally that kicked off last October and is still underway. At the same point in Trump’s presidential term, the S&P was up just 13%. So it has done much better under Biden. As for how much an investment is worth compared to four years ago... That depends on what you have invested in. What I have invested in has done quite well during this inflation. Inflation affects the value of investments, and it has helped my accounts. I am doing quite well now!

[StudyingAuthor]

Yup... speaking facts!

[WhiteSteve]

@Red_Arrow yessir….. also important for everyone to understand the rapid and continued DEflation would likely send us into a recession, as human nature would be to resist buying things in anticipation of lower prices to come. We now have inflation levels near where they’d hope them to be from four years ago even without pandemic interference. Don’t tell Maria Bartoromo any of this though😂

[WhiteSteve]

*understand THAT

[StudyingAuthor]

@WhiteSteve You are right... also inflation from a virus that started 4 years ago... which has not yet came to a full halt because people are still getting sick from it every day.

[WindAtMyBack]

The stock market reacts to everything. It over reacts to everything. Then it converges on the actual value of the companies that make up those indexes. The reactions and over reactions mean nothing.

A lot of people who own stocks check them every damn day. Stop doing that. The company didn't change over night. The CEO of the company you own stock in MIGHT matter. The president does not.

[sage2021]

Or it would have crashed

[exitseven]

yes, I could see that as well.

[msc545]

Who cares?