Allan Lichtman predicts Harris will win election according to his “keys.” Do you agree or disagree with Lictman’s determinations for each of these?

[CriticalCatDad]

Here are the keys, and Lichtman’s determinations for each:

- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE
Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
- Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
- Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
- Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

- www.cnbc.com/.../...htman-election-prediction.html

Agree

Disagree

[ManInChains]

- Party mandate: good for republicans
- Context: No serious contest for the incumbent party nomination, true? False! There was a serious contest for it. It was a matter of huge contention how they handled the primary to keep people out! (RFK Jr)
Incumbency: Victor of the primary is not the candidate. This benefits Trump.
- Third party: There is no significant third party. True.
- Short term economy: True? Are we not in a recession? Don Lemon went around asking people who they’re voting for and they said Trump because of the economy. People’s groceries? My rent? My workplace payroll struggling! False!
- Long term economy: True
- Policy change: the incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy? True? WHAT? HARRIS ISN'T OFFERING ANY CHANGE! Inflation reduction act already happened. Policies they’ve proposed and acted, what change could they bring about as the same administration? FALSE!
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. True? THE PALESTINIAN PROTESTS AND THEY'RE EVEN PROTESTING HARRIS! 😂 FALSE!
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal? True? WHAT? THE PRESIDENT WAS OUSTED DURING THE 11th HOUR AS THE WHOLE MEDIA SAID THEY WERE SECRETLY WITHOLDING INFO ABOUT HIS COGNITIVE DECLINE! THATS THE INCUMBENT ADMINISTRATION! FALSE!
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero. HUNTER BIDEN, ETC! FALSE.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate not charismatic or a national hero. True? Trump is charismatic and sure he is hated by the left but I would argue that he is also adored by just as many if not more.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign military affairs. HOLY CRAP! ABBEY GATE SCANDAL? GOLD STAR FAMILIES HEAVILY CRITICIZING THE BIDEN HARRIS ADMINISTRATION FOR BESMIRCHING THEIR NAME FOR INSULTING TRUMP WHEN THEY INVITED HIM NOT TO MENTION AFGHANISTAN WAS A MAJOR FAILURE NOT TO MENTION ISRAEL IS RESULTING IN MASSIVE PROTESTS! False!
Foreign military success: the incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs? False

[llorando]

I disagree, anything can happen now till election time, and for Harris supporters, the only way to ensure she wins, is to vote. If I'm not mistaken, he predicted Biden would win, and commented it would be a mistake to replace him.

[MisterWack]

Agree because he accurately predicted every election based on popular vote, after Bush Jr.’s victory being handed to him by the SCOTUS he changed his prediction mechanism and it has been right every time.

[MisterWack]

Note: He predicted Obama’s wins, Trump winning in 2016 and people thought he was wrong, I knew he’d be right.
2020 predicted Biden, 2024 it is Harris!

[Juxtapose]

They're bullshit. No unrest? What about those Palestinian Hamas fuckers protesting? That list is bullshit.

[msc545]

This is like reading tea leaves. Meaningless.

[Dargil]

Opinions (including mine) are like A-Holes.