Who will win the US Presidential debate (September 10th, 2024), NOT who do you like to win but who do you think will?

[SpaceGalaxy]

Kamala Harris

Donald J. Trump

[nightdrot]

While I tend to support - grant not with much enthusiasm - Mr. Trump, I actually think that VP Harris will likely win the debate as this is measured in opinion polls. (By other metrics, it is a different question.)

This is not because VP Harris is particularly good at debates and other "set piece" events. Rather, it is because the expectations for the VP are low and thus if she emerges standing - forget about doing anything better - she will be judged the winner.

Throw into this media bias. ABC is sponsoring the debate and a recent Media Research Study found that ABC News coverage of Harris has been 100% favorable. By contrast, ABC coverage of Trump has only been 6% favorable.

While I tend not to lose much sleep on media bias - most of American history has been with a biased media and it was only in the late 19th to mid-20th centuries that the idea of an "unbiased" media came into vogue - in the age of social media, such bias is apt to carry some weight. It will be echoed in social media and each side will tend to hear - thanks to the algorithms - what they are already inclined to hear.

Add it all up and the edge goes to VP Harris for the debate. However, as with her convention, the effect is not apt to last and - particularly depending on how Trump handles himself and the post-debate period - it may not likely amount to much. However, for the short term, the low expectations for Harris paradoxically work to her advantage as "adequate will be enough."

[WhiteBoyChill]

You do have a good point. Although even if her performance is deemed “good” I don’t really see her support surging to unprecedented levels or anything insane like that

[nightdrot]

@WhiteBoyChill Totally agree. To date, this election has been played out "between the 49 yard lines" so to speak. When either side "surged" it was, at most, by one or two points either side of the other side and within the poll's statistical margin of error.

That is what I expect will happen here and, as I mentioned, any "surge" is apt to be short lived. My hunch being that Trump - seeing as he is in polls as identified by a fair majority as the "change" candidate - is apt to end as the winner by less than 55%.

[katiesmuff]

I'm sure her win had nothing to do with DUMBO ranting about people eating dogs and cats which really makes him sound retarded along with the 30 other fabricated lies he told. Harris may not be great, but she is honest.

[WhiteBoyChill]

@katiesmuff You’re right. Harris clearly never lied about anything once.

You’re ignorance is honestly astounding

[MisterWack]

Kamala Harris based on previous debates.
She was straight forward, assertive, and effective at the debate with Mike Pence. She was eager to take on Donald J. Trump and even though he agreed to it…. He dragged his feet to face her since she didn’t get her party’s nomination. In fact, JD Vance turned down VP debate with her too.

Moving onto Donald J Trump’s debate history, in 2020 he defended his record during BLM nighttime riots & his record during the Covid19 Pandemic even though he fell short of the record while Joe Biden dominated in comparison highlighting his promises to deal with the Pandemic, struggling economy, also to have riots in the streets / Civil Disarray to be met & dealt with once he’s elected.

Donald J Trump won the first Presidential debate of the 2024 Election Season however it was done with dodging the question, going back to other topics, derailing from the conversation, and with completely unpopular stances. Joe Biden had a cold, was feeble, and was unable to truly say his agenda though reading the transcripts he put up one heck of a fight though fell short allowing Trump to rise in the polls following that disaster.

Kamala Harris has a clear vision for where this country should go based on her prior legislative record, politics history, and understanding the laws & US Constitution. She will not be an easy opponent for Trump to take on, though tomorrow the country is watching!

[Red_Arrow]

You are so right about Trump dodging the questions, going back to other topics, and derailing from the conversation. The only people he fools with those tactics are his brainless MAGA cult members. Harris is way beyond him in understanding our laws and Constitution. She will make a fool out of him in those areas. And her experience as a prosecutor will tear him apart when he tries his dodging tactics.

[MisterWack]

@Red_Arrow Thank you, I was a Trump supporter back in 2016 so I work to hold him accountable because there came a time I didn’t question him & talked to people saying “give him a chance”….

[purplepoppy]

Trump has more experience and knows that performance is more important than substance in these things. Trumps weakness is he can't resist trying to delight his base with disrespectful comments to show he's a big man. It makes him look childish and we could see kamala use that to her advantage.

I suspect kamala will treat as been in court to play on Trumps criminality. I would put it past her to push him into making a racist or misogynistic comment. Personally I'd slip the sound department a few dollars to create a bang.

[sean1234]

Sounds like a soap opera, but then again, they are nonsensical also.

[goaded]

There's no audience, which sould help Kamala. I can imagine her explaining how she proposes to solve a problem, then donating the rest of her time for Donnie to explain his proposal!

[sean1234]

@goaded Oh who cares, let Barney the dinosaur be president, the same crap will happen no matter whos president. What I learned is no matter whos president, no matter how much time passes... NOTHING EVER CHANGES!!! Aside from the fact that ALL U. S. presidents aside from Martin Van Buren are related by royal blood of 2 blood lines. Some are down right closely related.

[goaded]

@sean1234 You don't think overturning Roe v Wade was a change? You don't think SCOTUS declaring that presidents are above the law when it comes to (undefined) official acts is a change? That you can't even use their own words against them? That the attack on the Capitol wasn't a change from the peaceful transition of power?

Apart from the fact that your "royal blood" bit is obvious nonsense.

[sean1234]

Your bunk is nonsense, nothing ever changes, only stays the same or gets worse... and the fact they are all related was found out by a 9 year old girl doing a assignment on her family history and found out all that. How about that no US presidents can be elected under martial law and this country has been under martial law since before Abraham Lincoln was assassinated.

-The truth hurts.

[katiesmuff]

@sean1234 WOW! After reading your far fetched crap nonsense I can totally understand why at age 42 you are single. Can't imagine even the lowest life wanting to be near you.

[sean1234]

@katiesmuff I can't help that you people are in the total darkness. I was a Georgia delegate by the way. They pretty much told 1000 people in that Republican national convention years that what we said and did didn't matter and what they wanted to put in place was going to be done no matter what, and it was. You people are extremely deluded if you think your vote matters. You all need to start looking at Jesus instead of some arrogant lunatic in the white house. You can only have one God.

[sean1234]

*years ago

[Kristenxoxo]

Not really into politics, but this is going to be fun to watch later today. Was watching Fox News this morning and to them Trump is a God, he's perfect and can’t do nothing wrong and kamala is so Bad, then you look at CNN and it’s the opposite lol

[SpaceGalaxy]

@Kristenxoxo so, so true!

[OlderAndWiser]

Harris falls back into her word salad whenever she feels flustered. Can't see her having the edge.

[BCA6010]

Going off their past debate and interview performances, Kamala is going to get creamed. She was arguably the worst person on stage with other democrats in the 2019, and she doesn't seem to have gotten any better or changed in any meaningful way since then. In fact, I think she has gotten worse.

That said, expectations are so low that her shills will consider almost anything short of spontaneously falling into a coma to be a win, and spin it accordingly.

I also don't think that the outcome will actually matter much in terms of persuading voters. This is fundamentally a contest between two administrations that the people have lived through for 4 years each before, so there's not really anything to learn.

[exitseven]

President Trump will win even though Harris got the questions in advance and the moderator will only ask about abortion, Jan6th and Trumps conviction. Kamala needs to keep in mind that in Trump's last debate he ended a 50 year political career.

[Guacamole409]

I still don’t actually believe there’s going to be a debate. But I hope I’m wrong. The dumbest thing Kamala asked for, was closed microphones.
This will be perfect for Trump. The communists on ABC will ask Trump why he ordered the insurrection. That’s where he needs to answer two words. I didn’t. Then he needs to use the rest of his time to slam Kamala. She will cave under the pressure.

I don’t know if you saw the video that Trump posted today, but Kamala is admitting to letting in tens of thousands of Haitians into the country.
The people of Springfield, Ohio are livid about this. The Haitians are eating their dogs and cats and anything they can get a hold of in the neighborhood. The Haitians are going to city Parks and kill all the geese and ducks. I would guess that 95% of Americans have no idea this is happening. That’s where Trump comes in. When Kamal is Mike is muted, that’s when Trump has the destroyer her.

[goaded]

@Guacamole409 Harris asked for open microphones. Trump refused.

www.nbcnews.com/.../trump-harris-campaigns-agree-rules-abc-debate-rcna168683

[Guacamole409]

@goaded
Joey and Kammy wanted muted mics in the first debate. Do you not have your own life in Germany?

[goaded]

@Guacamole409 Can't you get simple facts right?

[Guacamole409]

@goaded
Biden wanted the mics muted.

[goaded]

@Guacamole409 Correct. Well done.

[Guacamole409]

@goaded

But either way, Kamala will be destroyed. Trump agreed to the Dem rules of the debate, and now Kamala wants to change the rules. No. It doesn't work that way. Now Kammy is stuck. No teleprompter, no notes, and muted mics.

[Red_Arrow]

Harris won. It was obvious in so many ways. She had two faces. Her normal smiling face as she calmly answered the questions, and a look of incredulity as Trump repeated his often told lies. And those tripped him up. He would spout a lie then realize he could not not back it up and flip to a different version. Then raise his voice as if that made him right. He deflected so many times! Talk about something different than what was asked. And talking over Harris and refusing to let her speak as he was reminded to do over and over by the moderators. The candidates had agreed that the mics would be cut when it was not there turn, so Trump just yelled so loud he could be heard on Kamala's mic. When speaking to oar about Trump, Harris looked at him. Trump hardly ever looked at Harris. He couldn't face her! After the debate, news commentators were laughing about Trump's performance

[D_Bone_Steak]

Trump for sure. Biden crushed her when they debated, and we all saw what happened to hiden-Biden when he finally had a debate with Trump. Although, I would accept the argument that Biden's mental decline excelled since the 2020 time zone.

I'm still going to say Trump though and it's not because of my bias. I've seen Trump destroy too many times and I've seen kamala get ridiculed every time she does speak publicly. It's a skill-set Kamala just doesn't have... and she's up against a 'made-for-TV' charisma powerhouse despite what someone with TDS might say about Trump. It is what it is...

[katiesmuff]

Trump looked liked a complete idiot last night! I'm heading to Pennsylvania as I understand they are having specials today on dog and cat sandwiches. Just think the MAGA clan is still going to vote for this moron.

[D_Bone_Steak]

@katiesmuff I'm a bit late... I never watched it... I've heard it was rigged and that he started arguing more with the moderators. Over all I think you're right... the MAGA clan is still going to vote for him. Same for the other team. Absolutely nobodies mind was changed that night. Glad I skipped it just like I skipped the Emmy awards.

[DextroShade]

Considering Harris cannot handle an unscripted interview by herself and hides from the press while Trump has been on reality TV for years and has been going on every interview and podcast that will have him. She also has difficulty forming sentences without cackling like a demented hyena and just sounds weak and unsure of herself.

[AviatorTom]

Trump is a better debater and has a better record to talk about.

Whatever happens in the debate won't significantly change who the American voters will vote for, which is interesting.

[MyBrainsInsaneReign]

Both of them will lose on substance. But Kamala will lose more than Trump by reminding everyone what a weird, unlikeable, incurably dishonest person she is.

Trump has some personal issues too, but we've been seeing those for the past eight years, so we're all used to them. Trump has already alienated everyone he can alienate.

So Trump wins.

[4ngelic]

i dont think either will really win. i think they will have each 'won' though in the mind of their own party and respective media

[GOLDFISH_smile]

In terms of substance, Kamala will obviously win. In terms of aggression, probably Trump. In terms of volume, it's a tossup.

[Likes2drive]

Well after watching it, Trump made a good point, she is still in office as the vice president why isn’t she doing the things she is promising right now while in office? That proves it right there that she won’t or can’t if she becomes president. The only thing I agree with her about is Roe versus Wade but her and Joe Biden can fix this now and not have to wait until after since they are still in power, it’s seems hypocritical

[abc3643]

Well, the results of this poll pretty much was the opposite of what happened...

LOL.

Orange Crush

[chrissykerdock]

harris will win because like she the media lies to have a 1 world order

[CuriousHubby]

Neither we will find how awful they both are!

[Guacamole409]

Trump will win, even though Kamala has probably already gotten the questions a week ago.

[Surely]

If Trump keeps his head. Plus if he can ask Kamala the questions that the moderator won’t. He will probably have Harris spouting word salad everywhere!

[DrPepper12]

Neither both sides will claim victory and the American people will lose...

[goaded]

How could you possibly measure it?

I suppose you could have focus groups declaring their preference before and after, but then you'd just get people like Bryant Rosado who went on CNN and lied about being an independent voter.

[llorando]

Doesn't matter who wins, in the end, the American people lose.

[sean1234]

Yup, pretty much. Aren't all the us presidents related by 2 royal blood lines. Wait a second, isn't this really a monarchy?🙃🤪

[OfDeath]

Didn’t it already happen?

I saw everyone was saying that Harris won and Trump went off on a series of bizarre tangents in which, at one point he said immigrants were eating people’s pet animals.

[katiesmuff]

It's no longer who do we think will win but who did win and it seems it was Harris hands down.

[gatixek710]

If Trump restrains himself, he will win in a landslide.

[Iron_Man]

Trump will take her even though she’s a former prosecuting B

[WhiteBoyChill]

Considering Kamala can barely talk coherently, Trump

[Anonymous]

Kamala "wins" on style and "charm"

Trump wins on record and substance

[StyngRay]

Well she is leading in the polls. If t people actually vote, she should win.

[StyngRay]

Well Harris cleaned his clock !

[Dargil]

Trump will eviscerate Cami-La.

[Dargil]

I admit that she stayed alive better than Biden. She just lied lot, and flooded feel good rhetoric.

[Red_Arrow]

Obviously he did not eviscerate Kamala (you need to learn to spell), and all the lies were coming from the other side of the stage. What she told people of what she has done and plans on doing did feel much better than the evil spouted by Trump.

[Dargil]

@Red_Arrow I prefer Cami-La.

[Red_Arrow]

So you prefer to be wrong.

[Dargil]

@Red_Arrow I prefer the ridicule.

[Red_Arrow]

It ridicules you not her.

[Dargil]

@Red_Arrow Well then, I stand ridiculed.

[Red_Arrow]

You also stand as milling that the lies were coming from the side of the stage opposite Kamala.

[Red_Arrow]

*missing

[Anonymous]

All of us who don't watch

[sean1234]

😆. I won't be watching.
"vote for none of the above"
-Richard Pryor

[supercutebutt]

Kamala just won. :)

[Jfogngjf]

Trump is sexy he will win

[Red_Arrow]

Trump... sexy? No way. His suits look great. Lots of shoulder padding to hide the fat below. Look at the pictures of him stumbling around on the golf course. Look at the pictures of his hair piece blowing in the wind. Look at the orange spray all over his face.

[beefcakebradybatson]

HARRIS !!!

[Anonymous]

Moderators

[ashikaa10]

Trump