Still think the polls favor Trump?

[msc545]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[exitseven]

That poll oversamples democrats. Rasmussen has Trump up two points. It has remained pretty steady over the last few months. I suspect that with the recent failure at the southern border with the revelation that 13000 convicted murderers have been welcomed into the country and the squandering of FEMA money on illegal aliens while giving Americans $750 dollars to rebuild their lives the gap will only get wider.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2024/election_2024_trump_still_2_over_harris#google_vignette

[msc545]

Rasmussen is and always has been a Republican poll with serious methodological problems. The other 30 or 40 polls that I cite all seem to have Harris ahead. You suppose just one poll contradicts all the other ones accurately?

[exitseven]

More than one poll has Trump ahead but Rasmussen seems to be the most consistent. if you read how they choose their samples it is a mixture of phone calls and online questionnaires a d they take a cross, section of the entire country, not just urban areas or Harvard Square.

[msc545]

I think I probably know more about statistics and polls than you do. There is a reason that Rasmussen is always at variance with every other study and it's not because it's more accurate or that it's methods are somehow better. It is because it does not pay its statisticians enough and it's data analysis and collection methods have always been flawed. This goes back many years.

[exitseven]

Why would you think that? I have had plenty of statistics in college and I have run a couple of local polls for the town I used to live in. I know that they can all be faked but I also think that if your revenue is derived from polling ant the poll is not some side business like NBC ot the NY Times polls s are. They are nothing but propagand for the democrat party.

[msc545]

I see. So if you would kindly look at The link I posted you will see that virtually every poll except Rasmussen puts Harris ahead several points. Why do you think that is? Are they all manufactured results for the Democrats? Or do you think there might be something wrong with the one you favor?

[exitseven]

This looks like a group of different polls. Some are libera colleges and Democrat funded think tanks. I never heard of most of them. Emerson college is the only one familiar and I know that my are in the satchel for the democrats.

[msc545]

Oh sure, I forgot. Anybody that doesn't believe in fascism is automatically biased, correct?

[exitseven]

Anyone who is in the tank for the democrats is biased. That is the definition of being in the tank.

[msc545]

What tank?

[DrPepper12]

All the bookies have the odds at a dead heat even with the granulated data from battleground states. Nationally it's Kamala 3 but that's expected. Dems NEED a 3 just to compensate for the slave relic antidemocratic Electoral College suicide pact.

[jamesgoldman]

The polls never will because most are taken online and don't catch the rural Americans who are likely to back him because they either don't have Internet access or are too busy actually working (something the Democrats seek to make illegal)

[msc545]

You actually think all of them are taken online?

[jamesgoldman]

I said most, here they are online

[msc545]

Yes, well occasionally polls are taken offline and that doesn't involve administering them online, but they are published online. Has that occurred to you?

[llorando]

They are actually favoring Harris, but in my opinion, it's best to take them with a grain of salt, as in 2016, the polls favored Clinton up till election day, and she ultimately lost.

[Bricealan]

@msc545 How 'bout giving it a rest?

[msc545]

What should I given that there's another member on gag that insists on stating and restating that Trump is ahead in the polls?

[RowdyYates]

Polls are meaningless.

[msc545]

The only people that say that polls are meaningless are people who don't understand them. Apparently you are one of these people.

[RowdyYates]

Republicans don't put Trump signs in their yard, because of people like you.

[msc545]

I don't threaten people, unlike Republicans. You people can put up all the signs you want.

[RowdyYates]

Do you think you represent all Democrats?

[msc545]

Actually, yes, I do.

[RowdyYates]

Cool. Then Biden will win, hands down.

[Dargil]

One man poll: Trump will win. Mine does.