
Ignore that he was in his 20s at the time.

When taking into account his Thriller popularity, his international reach, and vice-presidential candidates (depending on what you think of the party he'd be)—what were his chances?

He seems like a Green Party individual to me; however, that did not exist yet, so Independent it is. Democrats and Republicans seem too extreme and divisive for his beliefs and public image interests at the time.

If he went the independent route, he'd obviously have to rely on the public for their financial support, etc. So winning the popular vote would be a priority over the electoral college, so his chances right off the bat are already slim. Unless there's a couple of Democrat billionaires who would see potential in rallying their support behind him over Reagan after the shooting incident.
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