What if Trump can't end his war with Iran by the midterms?

[Anonymous]

Trump’s self-inflicted wound /war of choice with Iran has been going on for 103 days. There are 146 days until the midterms. What’s going to happen if he hasn’t reached a deal with Iran by November 3?

Updates

19 d

"Trump has had many moments of bad news about his war with Iran recently. It turns out that his claim that 159 Iranian ships are at the bottom of the sea is a total lie. They didn’t have anywhere near that many ships in the first place. Trump’s own Central Command recently estimated that maybe “30 to 60” ships were sunk. Trump’s claim that he had completely knocked out Iran’s missile capability was a lie. Iran just fired a volley of missiles at Israel and U. S. military installations in Kuwait"

Updates

19 d

Wow look at all the mega guys going nuts because they're pet. Criminal cap seem to stop the that he started illegally. Good luck getting this thing managed in any way at all before the midterms.

[BonzoInBitburg]

It's not possible to reach a deal. Iran has control of the Strait of Hormuz. Just the threat of ships being attacked has made passage impossible because ships can't get insurance to pass through giving Iran the upper hand. Without full scale military invasion, Iran won't give up anything and they've outsmarted Trump and gained leverage that they didn't have before this started. I believe Iran when they said they aren't giving up the Strait or their enriched uranium, it's going to take boots on the ground to take it from them. Trump has said for 2.5 months that they are close to a deal and Iran keeps saying no we're not. Iran would love to drag this out past the midterms and are willing to risk their own people to do so. There is no shortage of countries willing to prop up Iran long enough for the Republicans to be decimated in the midterms.

[DryGermanGuy]

He will blame everything on Barack HUSSEIN! Obama and Joe Biden, maybe throw drunken Pete Kegstand under the bus.

[slatyb]

1 Oh hai. In teh beginnin Ceiling Cat maded teh skiez An da Urfs, but he did not eated dem.

2 Da Urfs no had shapez An haded dark face, An Ceiling Cat rode invisible bike over teh waterz.

3 At start, no has lyte. An Ceiling Cat sayz, i can haz lite? An lite was.

4 An Ceiling Cat sawed teh lite, to seez stuffs, An splitted teh lite from dark but taht was ok cuz kittehs can see in teh dark An not tripz over nethin.5 An Ceiling Cat sayed light Day An dark no Day. It were FURST!!!1

[Asker]

Neither I nor my cat, Allister, know what you're smoking, but can we have some of it?

[slatyb]

The LOLCats bible, but I think I posted it to the wrong question.

[Asker]

Oh yes, of course. My cat Allister has several copies of that that he hands out to guests.

[Dargil]

We have resumed pounding them. They will either surrender or be exterminated. I favor the latter. Shia Islam is a cancer which must be routed out. Leave any living and it will metasticise.

[strateguy632]

you are right.

[Dargil]

@strateguy632 Shia Islam has an apocalyptic theology. They believe that it is their role to usher in the end times. In their theology, they are waiting for something called the 10th Imam. When he arrives, the end times will begin. And my view is that Iran and Shia Muslims have intended to use nuclear weapons to usher in the End Times. These are dangerous people. No deal that they make with President Trump will be honored for more than about five minutes. It is part of their theology they are encouraged to practice Taqiyya, Which is deception to advance the will of Allah. They will honor no agreement, treaty Or cease fire. They can be described as being like Terminator in the first movie. They will never stop they can never be convinced they will never change their minds. And the only way to stop them is to destroy them completely. So we need that metal press.

Dislike

[Dargil]

Dislike was an artifact from copying and pasting.

[Dargil]

The ear will never end. They have been at war with us for 48 years. We will be able to subdue them but their apocalyptic theology will always be there.

[NovaSpawn]

Not sure if any of that is true. From my understanding, Iran's naval fleet outside of its speedboats were destroyed. On top of that, it's missile launch capacity was cut down by 90% throughout the war. Trump does exaggerate, but it's clear Iran has horribly suffered, and inflicted very little damage on its enemies.

[Asker]

Probably available data suggest that what you just said is not actually the case. But I guess it might be. In any event, what do you think happens if Trump can end the war by the time the midterms occur?

[NovaSpawn]

I'm not sure what makes it "not the case". Iran lacks any naval strength, and they are only able to harass like pirates. Their missile launched are limited to 5 to 10 a volley, down from over 100 at the beginning. That is some serious degradation. The INS Derna was confirmed to suffer more deaths than the US, Israel, and Gulf nations combined, and that is just 1 ship.

[Asker]

We have plenty of small speed boats that are able to dispense torpedoes if necessary. Their missiles are down nearly as far as you think they are, but most importantly, they have lots and lots of drones, and those things are actually really deadly relative to ships.

Arguing about military capabilities is a waste of time. The most important thing that the Iranians have in its most important capacity is its continuing control of the Strait of Hormuz, which controls 20% of the world's oil. Until that is somehow taken from them, they are going to be in charge of all of this, and this is why they are winning this war.

[Asker]

I'm sorry, that should say they have plenty of small speed boats, etc.

[Asker]

Their missiles are not down nearly as far as you think they are because they keep using them to shoot at other people besides the US.

[NovaSpawn]

They are clearly losing the war. Let's run through some examples outside of the clear destruction of their military. Why do they attack gulf states? According to then UAE (which is where most of their strikes landed) 90%+ of their strikes were in civilian areas. Most of them intercepted. Why are we even talking about Hormuz, when the US blockade has cut off their supply and forced them to run oil outside of kharg Island into the gulf? These are tactics Iraq used in 1991. Just some examples

[Asker]

If you keep believing US propaganda, then yes, I agree with you -they are winning the war very clearly. Fortunately, US propaganda isn't true.

[NovaSpawn]

Wow, nice reply.

[Asker]

I'm glad you liked it, however, it was not meant to be nice.

[NovaSpawn]

Once again, I ask the same questions. Feel free to answer them this time.

[MrChinaski]

The latest third-party (i. e. European) assessments I have seen suggest Iranian ballistic missile capacity was cut 25%, not 90%. Some was damaged and rehabilitated quickly.

If you are relying on either Iranian or US damage assessments you are going to be misled.

[NovaSpawn]

@MrChinaski Doubtful. Iran fired consistently fewer missiles throughout the war, and lost most of its launchers. We are likely confusing stockpile estimates here. That isn't how the US or Israel are basing their estimates.

[MrChinaski]

Truth is the first casualty of war.

[NovaSpawn]

@MrChinaski Sure. I don't deny. However, even by that assumption, 3rd party groups have something to gain or lose as well. My point is, clearly from the ground, the Iranian military ability has been significantly degraded. Even with Russian and Chinese equipment their response seemed quite weak.

[MrChinaski]

Their navy is gone. Their air defence is gone and anyway proved ineffective. So those things are true. I agree.

Their capacity to harass other gulf states and seaborne trafffic seems largely intact.

[Asker]

@MrChinaski let's not forget they're ballistic missiles. They seem to have a lot of those...

[NovaSpawn]

@MrChinaski Sure, but to me it's a sign of desperation. Saddam did the same thing in 1991 during the Gulf War. They can't handle things militarily, so they turn to those options. I'm not impressed by launching strike into civilian areas in the gulf, or harassing sea lanes. Though I'll admit it's not the first time Iran has done this. Then US also countered them in the 1980s.

[NovaSpawn]

It matters little without launchers. Hence the reason the rates have dropped 90% during the war. If they have 2,000 missiles but only a few launchers, they have no way to effectively launch large amounts.

[MrChinaski]

@novaspawn Sure. And what followed was conflict in different ways with Iraq for two decades...

[NovaSpawn]

@MrChinaski Certainly. Yet what are now discussing here is a completely different issue. The objective isn't regime change.

[exitseven]

It will be bad. Hopefully it wraps up this week and at the end thr US ends up with a big oil deal.

[strateguy632]

trump successfully ended it again. no shooting. but iran will never agree so the blockade will last keep, until iran is desperate and bows.

[strateguy632]

clarified: on June 9 and tenth we bombed them and they shot at our bases. but trump cancelled our attack of date 11 ending the war. now we know why! he destroyed radar near the strait and many oil tankers secretly came out! another trump achievements.

[Asker]

I wonder how long I'll take Trump to change his mind and start threatening them again?

[Asker]

"Successfully ended it again"... That is just hilarious!