Hey, Trumpers - interested in seeing how well you're going to do in the midterms?

[Anonymous]

Take a look, losers. This is what you get for voting for and supporting a mentally ill pedophile racist convicted criminal. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote

[exitseven]

I think Republucsns hang on to th3 senate and maybe pick up aa couple if seats. Thr house is up for grabs. President Trump has a long list of accomplishments and will be defined by more than a temporary rise in gas prices

[Asker]

Let's make a bet on this.

[Asker]

Nobody except you votes for Republicans anymore.

[exitseven]

Americans will come out and vote

[exitseven]

It is more a function of how bad the democrat candidates are. Races in Maine, Michigan, Texas and North Carolina will go to Republicans. They keep the senate and maybe pick up a seat or two.

[MrChinaski]

Meh. Kalshi only has the democrats 58% to take the Senate. The House looks more certain.

[MrChinaski]

A week ago they had the senate 50% so 🤷‍♀️

[Asker]

We will see unless Trump finds a way to stop the election, like declaring martial law. It's not like he's going to stop himself from doing that, and I'm not sure anybody else will stop him either.

[Anonymous]

They know it will be a bloodbath lol

[Asker]

Good. Maybe they will learn something.

[strateguy632]

you remind me of the poll in 2016 that trump would lose.

wrong

[Asker]

Only 10 years ago? A lot has happened in those 10 years, in case you haven't noticed.

[strateguy632]

So you agree polls are not trustworthy.

[Asker]

It sort of depends on how the poll was conducted, who conducted it, and a lot of the math involved. If I have access to those things, then I have a much better idea of whether the poll should be trusted or not trusted. One thing that I found helps is to look at the results of multiple polls evaluating the same question. If most of them tend to agree with each other, then that sort of strengthens the result of at least one of them. If I see one that's a complete outlier, where it differs from the others by a substantial amount, that, to me, is a red flag mathematically, and I tend not to trust that poll nearly as much.

[Asker]

So, to answer your question, many polls are trustworthy, particularly if they agree with each other. Some polls that are numerical outliers tend not to be trustworthy.