Are the Republicans about to do very badly in the midterms?

[msc545]

If so, is this because of Trump and the very poor economy and the unwanted war in Iran that is being lost?

[MrChinaski]

Polymarket says Democrats are 60% likely to take the Senate, Kalshi says 62%. So there's an arbitrage opportunity.

[msc545]

Can you buy and sell contracts on these markets?

[MrChinaski]

Yes. They are person to person betting markets. Each contract pays $1. If they cost 62c that implies the market says there is a 62% chance of winning. I don't know what cut the sites take, I assume they make money somehow.. I've never used them.

[msc545]

Q That's very interesting. I've never learned very much about this sort of thing. How would a typical deal be structured?

[MrChinaski]

I've been meaning to look into this myself. Site creates standard contracts an acts as a market maker. i. e. technically it sets the price, like a bookmaker. But if people buy one side the price of that bet increases and the price of the other side falls, like a bookmaker. They take a spread, like a bookmaker. So far as I can tell. Anyway. I'll let you explores and lose all your money by yourself. kalshi.com/.../senatetx-26

[msc545]

Well I don't think I'm going to but thank you for mentioning all this. I have better ways to lose money as it turns out. I just had a very large refrigerator. Go bad and a very large and expensive sliding glass door also go bad. Those expenses are a much worse than I thought they would be.

[msc545]

So I got curious and just ran the numbers a bit. Turns out that The house so to speak. Get 7%. Although 7% of what is a little bit questionable. The best bet appears to be a bet that the Democrats will control both the Senate and the house in the end. This Yields a profit about $500 for an investment initially of about $1,000. Of course this is based on current valuation and fees. Those things could change.

[888theGreat]

Polymarket numbers have lowered a little for Democrats , 89% chance winning House and 61% chance winning Senate.

[Iron_Man]

What are you voting November 3?

[msc545]

I already voted. We have early voting here in California.

[Iron_Man]

OK, who did you vote for? Also, did you like Arnold Schwarzenegger as a former governor?

[msc545]

I voted for many people and none of them were Republicans. Many of them were just candidates in minor local races. I don't really remember Schwarzenegger very well one way or the other. Who did you vote for?

[Iron_Man]

I always vote Republicans

[msc545]

Ok I never vote Republicans so I guess we canceled each other out.

[Iron_Man]

As far as the president we did, but if you’re voting for the state of California and I’m voting for Florida that’s different. We didn’t cancel each other out.

[Iron_Man]

Like the governor

[msc545]

Yeah, all of the votes that I cast were for things going on within California which you would not have seen on your ballot. I assume for you it was the same except for Florida so there's that. Possibly the only thing that would have national implications would be that I voted for people running for in Congress, all of whom were Democrats. That didn't change anything really because all of the Congressional representatives from California were Democrats as far as I recall.

[Iron_Man]

Thanks for the award, my friend

[CaptainObivous]

They are, and the Iran conflict and high prices/inflation will be a big factor. No new wars and lowering prices is what helped get Trump elected, and he broke those campaign promises along with many other, so it'll be no surprise when Republicans do badly. Voters don't even have to vote Democrat for Republicans to do badly, enough voters choosing not to vote is enough,

[Sevenpointfive]

it's not going to change that much. even in a couple of years, if we have to wait that long, it's not going to change until all of the politicians are removed. they will go back to doing bad things and we'll question why didn't things change? they might be able to prolong the intevitable for awhile, but those epstein files will either make or break the democrats now.

[msc545]

The Epstein fouls are related to the Republicans and their behavior as far as we know now. Not the Democrats.

[Sevenpointfive]

i don't believe that for a second. i think more republicans are guilty of being on the list, but congress knew of epstein before he was a thing. i wonder how long that reporter was on it? lutnick just killed his conspirator. this is one topic i haven't researched at all, but from what i've read it would dismantle the world in the publics eye. i really don't care. i'm sick of the federal government!

[888theGreat]

PolyMarket has 90% chance they take House and 73% chance they take Senate and 64% chance they win Presidency in 2028. They have 81% chance Vance will not win in 2028. Polymarket was 95% correct last election results.

Trump has destroyed the Republican party. It might be 20 years before they ever control anything.

[msc545]

Link PolyMarket page, please. Thanks. I have no doubt what you said is correct, but I'm having trouble finding it.

[Anonymous]

Honestly, the Republicans are heading into the November midterms in a pretty difficult position, and I think there are several reasons for that. The latest polling suggests Democrats have a real opportunity to make significant gains, although we cannot say with certainty how the elections will turn out.

[Alex-Snow]

It is mostly due to Trump but the GOP Senate & House also share a lot to blame as they kneel and kiss his ring and they would follow him off of a cliff.

[Anonymous]

Possibly. there's a lot of economic manipulation going on to make it so.

[NathanDavis]

I don't like to gamble...

[jamesgoldman]

Probably

[slatyb]

We can only hope.