Potential florida and east coast hurricane forecast in 2 weeks. What do you think?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

2 week GFS model forecasts a weak hurricane hitting florida and going up the east coast. This is NOT what I had a premonition about, this is just another Cat 1 I think.

Updates

1 y

OMG. The new GFS has at least a Category 3 headed to New Orleans, and keep in mind GFS is for TRACK, it under-estimates intensity of hurricanes slightly. I hope to God this is a "ghost storm" and does not happen, my goodness.

Updates

1 y

Forecasting 125kts near a Katrina-like landfall position and about as big as Katrina on that run, hope to God this is just bad data for now. This is NUTS if this actually happens, or anything like this for goodness sakes.

[Anonymous]

Nws has it only for one week out. Where are you getting the two week model?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

TropicalTidbits. com. It runs the full 2 week GFS and alternates the 1 week Euro and 2 week Euro every 6 hours as well.

This site is owned by Doctor Levi Cowen, who is a ranked member of the staff of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

[Opinion Owner]

thanks

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Here, fi this link is allowed.

www.tropicaltidbits.com/.../...pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

[Opinion Owner]

So that looks like maybe the tenth or later?

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Yeah, and it moves slow as molasses on that version of the run. This is not set in stone. Anything beyond the 5 day forecast will change a lot before it comes to pass. But this run is predicting 14 to 24 inches of rain for Western North Carolina, which is very, very bad.

[Opinion Owner]

That’s awful for them

[SeekerOfTruth007]

There's a worrying trend on this forecast already. Each additional run of the model has trended slightly farther west, getting farther into the Gulf on the 7th through 10th days. We definitely need to check this storm at least once per day for the next 5 days until the models get a better fix on what's about to happen.

[Opinion Owner]

Yeah there’s nothing on the 7 day , I’ll keep checking the week forecast and see

[strateguy632]

LEss extreme than past storms.

[WonderingManII]

Don't live in Florida

[wynning]

Here we go again...

[SeekerOfTruth007]

Agencies forecasting up to 10 US landfalls this season. There will be a Neutral ENSO cycle, which is the worst outcome, and very low trade winds. This means hurricanes will tend to be very big, very strong, and slow-moving this season.

[wynning]

Strap in folks!